Predictions for 1/28/23
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| Photo Credit: Fox |
Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Since the previous update, new series 'Accused' and returning drama '9-1-1: Lone Star' have entered the table. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column.
Accused: Fox gave both 'Monarch' and 'Alert' the chance to launch behind an NFL game, so it only makes sense that they would give the same opportunity to their latest effort. Crime anthology series 'Accused' made its football-assisted debut on Sunday, January 22nd with a massive 2.08 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. Of course, even a one-hour loop of white noise could pull these type of numbers if positioned behind a colossal 'Cowboys v. 49ers' game (12.79). The true test for 'Accused' came on January 24th when it debuted in its Tuesday-night timeslot behind '9-1-1: Lone Star'. To the surprise of Fox executives and Nielsen aficionados alike, the series actually held its own. 'Accused' posted a solid 0.45 rating for episode two and retained a healthy 79% of its 'Lone Star' lead-in. To put things into perspective, 'The Cleaning Lady' has not been able to cross the 0.40 mark this season even though it airs behind the strongest show on the network ('9-1-1'). 'The Resident', 'Monarch', and 'Alert' have also failed to come near a 0.45 for a regularly-scheduled episode. Though it could very well crumble in the coming weeks, 'Accused' is the closest thing resembling a hit that Fox has had in a while. 'Accused' is Likely to be Renewed and may be upgraded if it continues to impress.
9-1-1: Lone Star: '9-1-1: Lone Star' began season four with a phenomenal 0.57 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic and is Certain to be Renewed right off the bat. This rating is only a few hundredths lower than its average performance from last season and just about a tenth below the usual '9-1-1' episode from Fall 2022. 'Lone Star' has proven to be a strong player even without the help of its parent show. Fox has almost nothing going for it right now and there is no chance they will get rid of one of their highest-rated offerings.
Alert: Just a week prior, 'Alert: Missing Persons Unit' seemed like the textbook case of a Nielsen ratings flop that had no shot at securing a season-two pickup. However, it recently grew by seven-hundredths to a 0.29 rating and built on its 'Fantasy Island' lead-in (0.24) by half a point. For reference, a November 14th episode of 'The Cleaning Lady' could only manage that same 0.29 despite having a '9-1-1' lead-in (0.68) that was nearly 200% stronger than the 'Fantasy Island' episode that 'Alert' aired after. Though this is not some exceptionally solid performance, it does show that the series may not be as doomed as it once was. 'Alert' is still Likely to be Canceled but that may change if it can keep up this sudden momentum.
Sunday Animation: 'The Simpsons', 'Bob's Burgers', and 'Family Guy' were all Renewed on January 26th for an extra two seasons. This means that 'The Simpsons' is guaranteed to run until its 36th season, 'Bob's until its 15th, and 'Family Guy' until its 23rd. None of these renewals should come as much of a shock and all three serve as correct predictions for this column. Thanks to their Sunday-night timeslots, football will continue to inflate their averages just enough in the Fall to cancel out the abysmal ratings they garner in the spring months.
Poll of the Week
Will 'Accused' be renewed or canceled?
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