NBC Renew/Cancel Week 7: Lopez vs. Rock

Last week, NBC premiered a new comedy block on Friday nights, a bold move that had the potential to backfire spectacularly on them. Did it? Keep reading to see the initial outlooks for both of this week's new entries.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
La Brea (0.38, 0.32-0.49)
Young Rock (0.26)

Leans Renewal:
Lopez vs. Lopez (0.31)
Quantum Leap (0.37, 0.33-0.47)

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.48, 0.43-0.60)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.48, 0.41-0.62)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.67, 0.58-0.77)
Chicago Med (0.63, 0.56-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.62, 0.51-0.68)
Law & Order: SVU (0.57, 0.50-0.69)
Saturday Night Live (0.73, 0.66-0.79)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
Grand Crew
Night Court
Untitled Mike O'Malley Comedy

Lopez vs. Lopez: In a surprising move, NBC scheduled a Friday comedy block this season, returning George Lopez to the night where his self-titled sitcom aired in the early 2000s. IT was a shakeup from the network's recent Friday programming (which included short-lived reality shows and The Blacklist), and it wasn't exactly a massive sign of confidence in either Friday, bound show. Its ratings were pretty so-so, with 0.31 being relatively acceptable for a Friday show, but still underwhelming for the premiere of a new show. I don't think NBC could have realistically expected better than this, but I don't know how low this show can realistically drop in an 8 PM slot and still get renewed. Nevertheless, I estimate it as a mild renewal favorite, given that every NBC freshman comedy has been renewed in recent years under NBC leaders Susan Rovner and Frances Berwick, and Lopez is off to no worse of a start than Grand Crew last season. Despite a big-name lead, the show itself is likely pretty cheap to produce, as well, given that it is a multi-camera series and not a more expensive single-cam, and that should help. NBC's potential cut of 10 PM programming continues to leave me questioning how many soft performers can be renewed (if any), and may lead to an abandonment of the NBC strategy of renewing newbie comedies no matter what,  I think even in the event of a 10 PM cut, NBC could still continue with an hour of comedies relegated to Fridays, which is why the show LEANS RENEWAL as of now.

Young Rock: While 0.31 seems to me like it will be enough for Lopez to get a second chance, I don't think 0.26 will be enough for Young Rock to get a fourth.  The show struggled in both of its prior seasons (after decent premieres for both off them) and it has slumped majorly in the shift to Fridays thus far. While 0.26 is higher than College Bowl got in this slot in early fall, I don't think it's enough for NBC to bother renewing this single-cam, which is likely relatively expensive for a half-hour show due to having a big-name star in Dwayne Johnson. Last season, NBC only renewed one veteran comedy (Rock) while canceling the two with lower ratings (Mr. Mayor and Kenan). They don't seem to have any qualms about canceling non-freshman comedies that have underperformed expectations, and it is my expectation that they will cut Young Rock this season after what is sure to be another season of big declines. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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