ABC Renew/Cancel Week 7: Deadly Trails Indeed for Big Sky

Two ABC dramas get reevaluations this week on the Renew/Cancel, as things become clearer as the season marches onward. Keep reading to see which two series are due for prediction changes.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.24, 0.17-0.32)

Leans Cancellation:
Big Sky (0.25, 0.19-0.31)
The Goldbergs (0.38, 0.34-0.44)

Leans Renewal:
The Good Doctor (0.32, 0.25-0.39)
Home Economics (0.36, 0.30-0.41)
The Rookie: Feds (0.27, 0.23-0.34)

Likely Renewal:
The Rookie (0.31, 0.27-0.35)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.50, 0.46-0.57)
The Conners (0.51, 0.46-0.56)
Grey's Anatomy (0.49, 0.40-0.55)
Station 19 (0.49, 0.44-0.53)

Already Canceled/Ending:
A Million Little Things

Coming Soon:
The Company You Keep
Not Dead Yet
Will Trent
The Wonder Years 

Big Sky: Big Sky is an interesting case this year, in that L+SD ratings-wise, it looks quite a bit better  this year than it did last year. Its 0.25 average is, tragically enough, a standard rating for 10 PM on ABC, and its recent 0.3s have matched its post-Grey's performance in spite of a lower lead-in. Nevertheless, I have begun to feel, in recent weeks, less confident about the show's renewal prospects. Its delayed multiplatform performance (0.86) is, by far, the weakest of any ABC drama - lower than The Good Doctor, lower than The Rookie: Feds, even lower than Alaska Daily. While multiplatform performance isn't the end all be all, it's a bad sign to be trailing by such a margin. Networks are relying more now than ever on streaming performance to make renewal calls, and Big Sky is by far the weakest drama in that metric. It's hard to bet against veteran shows in an era where networks seem to default to renewing them rather than ordering new shows in their place, but Big Sky is in serious danger. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Alaska Daily: Another show in serious danger is Alaska Daily. While its premiere drew strong interest in multiplatform viewings, its L+SD performance is only getting uglier. Last week, it drew a ghastly 0.17 for its most recent airing, which is about what Promised Land did just before it was pulled. ABC is also not airing the fall finale of Alaska with the other Thursday drama finales, and is airing a special broadcast presentation of a Hulu show in its place, while Alaska airs its fall finale alone the week after, which does not bode well for it at all. ABC seems intent on airing it out - they've already scheduled it in their midseason lineup. However, it's hard to see any way it can last beyond that. With its performance on streaming, Hulu, which ABC's parent company Disney luckily owns, could swoop in to take it. The chance of that is minuscule, of course, but it would clearly be a smarter choice than airing a second season of Alaska Daily on ABC. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION, bordering on certain.

A Million Little Things: It was announced earlier today that A Million Little Things, which I labeled a "certain cancellation" in my pre-season Renew/Cancel, was wrapping after a five-season run. That's an admirable run for any show, and its creative team should be proud that they will get to fulfill their initial vision for the series.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments b below and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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