This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, two sophomore comedies enter the spread, with initial predictions for Young Rock and Mr. Mayor. Keep reading to see where these two shows end up!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
The Endgame (0.34, 0.26-0.46)
Grand Crew (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
American Auto (0.37, 0.27-0.50)
Mr. Mayor (0.35)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.59, 0.50-0.74)
Young Rock (0.47, 0.43-0.51)
Certain Renewal:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.55, 0.48-0.67)
Saturday Night Live (0.92, 0.80-1.04)
Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
La Brea
Law & Order: SVU
New Amsterdam
Already Canceled/Final Season:
Ordinary Joe
The Thing About Pam (miniseries)
This Is Us
Young Rock: Touted as NBC's #1 comedy in NBC's promo for the show, Young Rock certainly did not look like a top performer on premiere night. Though its current Christmas special-inflated 0.47 average is, tragically, enough to comfortably be NBC's top comedy (it's a full tenth above the #2 show, American Auto!), the 0.43 for its official season premiere is a series low, and is likely well below what NBC was hoping for. Compared to NBC's other comedies, it looks easily renewable. However, the costs can't be cheap due to having a well-known movie star leading the cast, and its year-to-year drops are horrendous. Networks never cancel their top-performing comedies (unless you count the Roseanne revival's cancellation), so unless they decide to move away from comedy entirely (which they won't do), Young Rock is their safest show. High costs will almost-certainly limit this show's run, but this is not going to be the end of the line unless things get truly dire later in spring. And even then, it probably still won't be enough for them to cancel. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL, even if it doesn't really deserve such a high placement.
Mr. Mayor: The other smash hit comedy to return this week on NBC is Mr. Mayor, a political comedy from Tina Fey. It was by no means a hit in season one, but it was extremely steady, remaining in the 0.5-0.6 range throughout the season. This season, as with most shows, a large chunk of that loyal audience has eroded, premiering to a 0.35 and tying the low set by the show's December holiday special. As of now, I think this is enough for renewal. It's higher than just about anything Grand Crew did in the slot, despite airing after daylight saving time had kicked in. It can, and likely will, drop to similar levels as Grand Crew in the coming weeks, but a 0.35 is renewable for an 8:30 comedy on NBC, and that's all the data I have at this point for the show. I will have to reassess as more data comes in, but at the moment, I think the show ekes out another renewal thanks to the creative team behind it and NBC's low standards for comedies. It LEANS RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
