NBC Renew/Cancel Week 1: An Ordinary Start for Ordinary Joe

It's a new TV season, and that means one thing: new shows! On this first edition of the 2021-22 NBC Renew/Cancel, the only show receiving a prediction in this first week is a new show, Monday drama Ordinary Joe. With Tuesday drama New Amsterdam and the Wednesday night Chicago block all already renewed for next season, it's the only show on the network that's premiered that hasn't already secured a renewal for next season. Keep reading to see where it will land, plus a look ahead at the season to come!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 

Leans Cancellation:
Ordinary Joe (0.5)

Leans Renewal:

Likely Renewal:

Certain Renewal:

Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
New Amsterdam

Already Canceled/Final Season:
This Is Us

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
The Endgame
Grand Crew
La Brea
Law & Order: Organized Crime
Mr. Mayor
The Thing About Pam
Young Rock

Ordinary Joe: Launching out of The Voice, TV's #2 show so far this week, Ordinary Joe had a so-so start with a 0.52 in the 18-49 demo, retaining less than half of The Voice. It's not a number that dooms it from the start, given how low ratings are in general, especially at 10. However, it doesn't suggest much longevity. With a 0.5 in week one and a serialized premise that lends itself to some larger-than-usual drops as the season goes on, it's hard to see much of a reason to expect renewal at this stage. If it stays steady, it can probably secure another season, but the odds of that are definitely lower than 50%. It starts as LEANS CANCELLATION.

A look ahead:

While Ordinary Joe is the only show to predict this week, that'll thankfully be changing soon! New  sci-fi drama La Brea joins the fray next week, as does SVU spinoff Organized Crime, which should return with some positive news given its season one performance. A bit further down the line, The Blacklist returns in October. I've been predicting a cancellation for it for a few seasons, and this season will be yet another test as to whether it can survive old age, a big cast exit and low ratings thanks to the negotiating powers of Sony. While I have low expectations for it ratings-wise, it truly is anyone's guess as to whether it'll be able to secure a tenth season.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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