ABC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Is The Rookie Heading for Retirement?

The ABC Renew/Cancel is back this week and it's a busy one! With all of their fall comedies and numerous drams premiering, I have a lot to predict and discuss on a network where very little actually seems certain. Keep reading for initial thoughts on The Wonder Years, The Rookie, Home Economics and more (low-rated) ABC shows!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Home Economics (0.4)
The Rookie (0.3)

Leans Renewal:
The Goldbergs (0.7)
A Million Little Things (0.3)
The Wonder Years (0.7)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.7)

Certain Renewal:

Already Renewed:

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Coming Soon:
Abbott Elementary
Big Sky
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy
Promised Land
The Rookie
Station 19
Women of the Movement

The Wonder Years: On premiere night, ABC's weakening Wednesday night comedy block returned down yet again, but there was one half-hour that actually rose from last season: 8:30 comedy The Wonder Years. Though 0.67 isn't some smash hit debut, and the show received a massive promotional push to get it that rating, it's still the #1 new show debut of the season (so far) and is higher than what American Housewife did in the slot last year, which isn't an easy feat. Based on the big promo push, ABC clearly wants to make this show work. With Blackish ending for sure, The Goldbergs and The Conners both looking much closer to the end than the beginnings of their runs, and Home Economics showing no promise, there's no real reason to believe this show is in danger, barring a massive collapse.  It LEANS RENEWAL for now, and looks good for a prediction upgrade if it can hold up decently in the coming weeks.

The Rookie: Not looking good is The Rookie. In a season that has seen disappointing returns aplenty, this one is near the top of the list. Though its lead-in (Supermarket Sweep) didn't exactly provide it much assistance, the show sunk to a series low 0.3 for its premiere, two tenths below both its season three premiere and finale. That is, in a word, disastrous. That's a 40% drop from four months ago! It did have a 0.8 American Idol as its lead-in for the finale, but even then, it shouldn't be shedding 40% of its rating. Not when it was able to get a 0.5 out of a 0.5 Who Wants to Be a Millionaire less than a year ago! A 0.4 should have been achievable here, and it just wasn't. While the show does seem to have decent interest on streaming services, there's only so much that can do to offset low live-plus-same-day ratings, especially when the show is reportedly expensive, distributed by eOne, and was seen as something of a bubble show in the past few seasons, even when it had stronger ratings. It's also hard to imagine ABC wanting to waste the American Idol lead-in on a show that can't do better than 0.3s on its own. The Rookie is certainly not dead, but it's in some real trouble. It'll be a close call, but for now, it LEANS CANCELLATION.

A Million Little Things: Speaking of close calls! A Million Little Things also returned to a 0.3, though unlike The Rookie, this is not unfamiliar territory for AMLT. It hit that rating five times last season, with lead-ins ranging from 0.3 to 0.5. Its 0.3 behind Home Economics was far from a surprise. I truly have no idea what ABC is going to do with this show. On the one hand, if 0.3s were enough for it to survive last season, perhaps it'll be enough this season, too. On the other, the show was said to be on the bubble last season, and performing even worse this season probably won't make ABC more likely to renew it. It is assisted by the fact that it is a strong Hulu player that ABC has an ownership stake inHowever, we've seen in recent years that strong streaming performances can't always save shows. Look at Good Girls. Though on another network, that show was canned despite a big deal with Netflix, where it was a hit. For now, AMLT looks to at least have the edge over The Rookie, but whether ABC actually needs either of them remains to be seen. I'll wait to see how their remaining dramas perform before I can get a real grasp at either shows odds. For now, AMLT very, very slightly LEANS RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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