Certain Cancellation:
Emergence (0.5)
Likely Cancellation:
The Baker & the Beauty (0.5)
Leans Cancellation:
Single Parents (0.6)
Leans Renewal:
Bless This Mess (0.7)
Mixed-ish (0.6)
Schooled (0.7)
Stumptown (0.5)
Likely Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6)
For Life (0.6)
Certain Renewal:
Black-ish (0.6)
The Conners (1.1)
The Goldbergs (0.9)
A Million Little Things (0.7)
The Rookie (0.6)
Already Renewed:
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy
Station 19
Already Canceled/Final Season:
Fresh Off the Boat
How To Get Away With Murder
How To Get Away With Murder
Modern Family
American Housewife: This hasn't been a great season for American Housewife. It moved to Friday, leading to pretty terrible year-to-year trends. It did decently by Friday standards, but was then moved again, this time to Wednesdays. There, it's performed about the same as it did on Fridays, with 0.6s and the occasional 0.7. That's not enough for me to say it's a lock to return. However, I think it's definitely in the best position of all the shows averaging in the 0.6-0.7 range. It has better retention than any of those other shows, and is seen by ABC as an anchor, as they moved it to 9 once Modern Family ended when they could have kept it at 9:30 and moved Single Parents at 9 (that would have allowed Housewife to not have to move to a third timeslot in one season.) It's not 100%, but I'd be pretty surprised to see it canceled. Chance of renewal: 80%
The Baker and the Beauty: There's not much data for me to make my prediction on. While I'll give it credit for its stability and solid retention, I still have a very hard time seeing this show returning. It a Universal co-production and still has many episodes left to sink down to the lows hit by show like Emergence and Stumptown, which are fully owned. Chance of renewal: 30%
Black-ish: It may be one of the lowest-rated ABC shows, but there's no chance it's going anywhere this season. It makes ABC too much money and is the lead show in an important franchise for the company. Chance of renewal: 100%
Bless This Mess: I've been back-and-forth with this show all season. I truly don't think this deserves a renewal, based on its retention from The Conners, but ABC seems high on it, higher than they are on most of the other bubble comedies. I'm extremely unsure of what will happen, and despite leaning towards a cancellation, I now think the odds of renewal are higher than its cancellation odds. Chance of renewal: 51%
The Conners: This is ABC's #2 series and the #9 scripted series on broadcast as a whole. Chance of renewal: 100%
Emergence: It got off to a pretty decent start, but as time went on it became a huge flop, going as low as 0.3. It's one of the lowest-rated shows on all of ABC and is the only show that's hit a 0.3 besides Fresh Off the Boat, which was canceled. It has no path to renewal. Chance of renewal: 0%
For Life: I upgraded this show a few updates back, and then it immediately dropped to a new low and then dropped again. Its 0.4 was ugly, but I'm still confident it will return. It's still their highest-rated new drama and it still consistently grows from or ties its lead-in despite airing at 10. There's no better choice for a renewal among ABC's new shows. Chance of renewal: 75%
The Goldbergs: It may be down, but The Goldbergs is still consistently one of ABC's top scripted program. They won't be parting with it this season. Chance of renewal: 100%
A Million Little Things: Despite being a somewhat-mediocre ratings performer, it's very unlikely that ABC will cancel this show this season. It's a decent 10 PM option despite moderate retention from Grey's Anatomy. I don't know how long it will run, but I can't see its run ending here. They don't have anything to replace it with. Chance of renewal: 95%
Mixed-ish: I was at one time considering downgrading this show to a cancellation prediction, It's hit some very ugly numbers and would be very easy to replace. However, I see it returning at this point. ABC seemingly loves the Ish franchise, and a show that's part of that brand probably has a better chance of renewal than a show of similar ratings. I think it could be canceled, as its ratings justify it, but I think it'll get a second season. Chance of renewal: 60%
The Rookie: What once appeared to be a death sentence for the sophomore procedural has turned out to be a blessing. The Rookie is ABC's #1 10 PM show, and has grown to new heights with its new American Idol lead-in. It's looked even more impressive as of late as Idol has come back down to earth, holding at 0.7. This is a true success story for ABC and they're not letting it go. Chance of renewal: 100%
Schooled: I've been critical of this show throughout the season, predicting a cancellation for most of the season. I upgraded it last week, and I'm keeping it there. I'm not certain of a renewal, but I think it'll be back. There are other ABC sitcoms that are weaker, even with its so-so retention. Chance of renewal: 55%
Single Parents: This is one of the most notable parts of this final update. After going back and forth (and back and forth), I've finally settled on a cancellation prediction for Single Parents. I could see it going either way, but I have to make a call and I think Single Parents will be ABC's first comedy to cut. I feel as if it's truly in a battle with Bless This Mess, which has the same co-creator and is of similar strength. In the end, I think Single Parents bordering on 0.4 will seal its fate and allow Mess to be renewed over it. Chance of renewal: 49%
Stumptown: This is the biggest shakeup for this update. I planned on upgrading it to leans cancellation in the last update, but decided to save it instead for this week. I still don't think ABC needs Stumptown, it's a very weak show (though it didn't exactly get much support in the lead-in department), but I do think the combination of streaming and delayed strength and the potential lack of new shows next season will lead to a renewal for Stumptown, even if it's just as a midseason replacement. Chance of renewal: 55%
What do you think of my final predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!
