Predictions for 3/14/18
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| photo: NBC |
Three new shows enter the table. One show is downgraded.
Key
Show Title [Average Adults 18-49 rating/Most recent rating]
Timeless [0.8/0.8] - After being off the air for over a year, Timeless returned on Sunday with a 0.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic. It had respectable retention of its lead-in and was only a tenth below its season finale. For a show that was almost canceled, this start is not too shabby. Keep in mind, the time-travel drama went as low as a 0.6 last year. If the peacock network was willing to renew it then, it's definitely in decent shape with this result. Furthermore, NBC's slate of new dramas has not delivered. All four shows (The Brave, True Crime, Good Girls, and Rise) have disappointed commercially despite receiving great timeslots. The lack of drama success strengthens Timeless's chances of survival. While the upcoming weeks will make Timeless's fate more clear, I don't expect it to leave our airwaves anytime soon.
Champions [0.7/0.7] - On series premiere night, the comedy mustered up a catastrophic 0.7 rating. It also lost 30% of its Will & Grace lead-in. There's simply no way to sugarcoat or spin this data. Since this is only a premiere, there's a strong chance that Champions will fall to a 0.6 or 0.5 rating for its next episode. Even if the peacock network decides to renew a freshman comedy, they'll probably go with AP Bio. It's evident that they prefer the latter since they gave it more exposure by airing it after the Olympics. As for Champions, it'll be lucky if it gets to air its entire episode order.
Rise [1.2/1.2] - Despite airing after the This is Us finale, Rise premiered to a tepid 1.2 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic. On the surface, that seems like a passable number. But, it ended up retaining just 43% of its lead-in. In all, this is an awful data point. It falls below the debuts of The Brave (1.3) and Good Girls (1.5). Given that both of those shows are in a tight spot, there's not much hope for Rise. Unless it performs well in the coming weeks, this drama will remain in cancellation territory.
Good Girls [1.26/1.0] - Initially, Good Girls seemed like it had potential. The 1.5 premiere was ahead of The Brave and it held up okay in week 2. Unfortunately, the drama collapsed to a 1.0 on Monday. This means that its week 3 drop (roughly 23%) was larger than its week 2 drop (roughly 13%). This data point also puts it below what The Brave did in its third outing (1.1). To top it off, the series lost nearly 60% of its lead-in from The Voice. Even with that said, the series is not entirely dead. Since Rise tanked on premiere night and NBC's other new dramas performed poorly, it has a shot at earning a second season. If a 1.0 rating is the floor for Good Girls, NBC may renew it for the sake of not canceling their entire freshman drama lineup. On account of that, Good Girls is downgraded from likely renewal to tossup. Nonetheless, it manages to stay out of cancellation territory for now.
Poll
Will 'Timeless' be renewed?
Do you agree with my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
