ABC Renew/Cancel - January 12: Speechless is a Toss-Up

The past week featured some news from ABC. The network set their spring schedule, and in doing so revealed episode order cuts for two of its comedies: Speechless and Fresh Off the Boat. I will be talking about what these mean in this week's ABC Renew/Cancel.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Inhumans (0.6, 0.4-0.9)

Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
Speechless (1.2, 1.0-1.4)

Likely to be Renewed
Agents of SHIELD (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Designated Survivor (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.1, 0.9-1.4)
Once Upon a Time (0.5, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.3, 1.0-1.6)
Black-ish (1.1, 1.0-1.5)
The Good Doctor (1.9, 1.6-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.0, 1.8-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.9, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)

Speechless: Last season, I talked a lot in these posts about the dramas Once Upon a Time, Quantico, and Agents of SHIELD, and I was very unsure at the end of the season what way they would go. This season, it looks like Speechless is replacing those dramas (along with, to a lesser extent, Kevin Probably, which is perhaps more like this year's Dr. Ken). This week, ABC gave off a couple of signs that they are disappointed with the ratings that Speechless has been giving them. The first is cutting the episode order to 18. The second is the lack of promotion, Speechless wasn't even promoted during The Goldbergs (shows are almost always promoted during the show before them). This reminds me of two other shows from last season: Dr. Ken and Agents of SHIELD. At one point in the season, neither show was promoted during the preceding show. Dr. Ken ended up getting canceled and Agents of SHIELD renewed, but looking back it looks like ABC may have renewed Dr. Ken if it weren't for American Idol, and Agents of SHIELD wasn't renewed because ABC wanted to renew it. While everything seems to be turning against Speechless, the show gave one of its strongest performances of the season this week, getting a 1.2 between a 1.5 from The Goldbergs and a 1.6 from Modern Family. Will Speechless be renewed? At this point, that's a pretty big mystery to me. I would say it has about a 60% chance, but that could go higher or lower depending on how it performs from here and how the spring comedies do.

Fresh Off the Boat: Like Speechless, Fresh Off the Boat got its episode order cut, but I don't think this puts it in more danger like it does with Speechless. With 19 episodes this season, Fresh Off the Boat will end its season with 79 episodes. That's most likely not enough for 20th Century FOX to be able to sell the show into syndication. So, the production company will desperately want at least one more season of the show. The only reason that Fresh Off the Boat isn't certain to be renewed is that there is a possibility that ABC cancels this show, and FOX (or a FOX-owned cable network like FX) picks it up so that the show will reach a number of episodes appropriate for syndication. 20th Century FOX will likely push for a renewal from ABC, but it's not a guarantee that they will succeed.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

Share this

Related Posts

Next Post »