CW Renew/Cancel: The CBS Show Conundrum Continues, Plus Midseason Prospects

Welcome to the CW Renew/Cancel Watch. In this installment, I had to move around a few predictions, and the conundrum with Jane the Virgin and Dynasty continues. In addition, the Watching column returns to replace both Leans Cancelation and Leans Renewal categories.  Here is the table for relative ad rates, adding Black Lightning and Life Sentence.

Show
Relative Ad Rate
Arrow
103
Black Lightning
102
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
45
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
128
Dynasty
112
Jane the Virgin
63
Life Sentence
113
Riverdale
100
Supergirl
142
Supernatural
98
The Flash
193

With this new knowledge, here are the new predictions.


Final Season
Certain to be Canceled
Likely to be Canceled
Watching
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
The Originals
Valor
Dynasty

Arrow
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend




Black Lightning
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow




Jane the Virgin
Riverdale





Supergirl





Supernatural





The Flash

Jane the Virgin: Looking at the ratings, Jane the Virgin averages 63% of the ad rating, but only 51% of the CW average. Because this show is in season 4, this show will hit the 70-80 episode mark. Since it is on Friday, ad rates are going to be lower. Obviously it is not making money off of ad rates, and the only thing that could save it is streaming numbers. But since the show is produced by CBS, I'm also applying the studio factor. The show is still the highest rated CBS produced show on air, and that's why the show remains in the "likely to be renewed" category.

Dynasty: Dynasty is drastically underperforming according to its ad rates and is currently tied with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend at 45% of the CW average. The only positive besides being fully produced by CBS I can see is that the Netflix deal got it 22 episodes. But the negative: it's moving to Friday in-season. I'm going back and forth between Jane and Dynasty this season, as it may depend on streaming numbers. Dynasty remains "likely to be canceled".

Like with FOX, mediocrely rated veterans based on ad rates will be examined on a case by case basis. However, because the CW has a huge gap in ratings performance levels between the CBS produced shows (all the lowest rated shows) and the WB produced shows (all the middle-tier and highest rated shows), it may help to create two separate tables of ad rates separated by production studio.

For now, let's talk about the midseason rookies, Life Sentence and Black Lightning.

Black Lightning's relative ad rate has it at 102% of the CW average. The debut episode of Black Lightning blows it out of the water at 163% of the CW average. My prospects of the CW series that in order to break even, the show will have to average a 0.5 in the A18-49 demo L+SD, about the same as the other three DC shows (Arrow, DC's Legends of Tomorrow, and Supergirl). But I think the show will perform slightly higher than that. Black Lightning should easily clear that threshold into a renewal.

Life Sentence has a higher relative ad rate at 113% of the CW average. Since Riverdale is at 114% of the CW ratings average currently, the ratings average it might expect to get is somewhat close, which is a 0.55 in A18-49 rating for L+SD. But I think this show will underwhelm expectations. I predict that it will perform around a 0.3-0.4 in most airings.

With that being said, we still don't have the ad rates for the returning veterans. Stay tuned to the next CW Renew/Cancel installment for more details on predictions.

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