Show
|
Relative Ad Rate
|
Arrow
|
103
|
Black Lightning
|
102
|
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
|
45
|
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
|
128
|
Dynasty
|
112
|
Jane the Virgin
|
63
|
Life Sentence
|
113
|
Riverdale
|
100
|
Supergirl
|
142
|
Supernatural
|
98
|
The Flash
|
193
|
Final Season
|
Certain to be Canceled
|
Likely to be Canceled
|
Watching
|
Likely to be Renewed
|
Certain to be Renewed
|
The Originals
|
Valor
|
Dynasty
|
Arrow
|
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
| |
Black Lightning
|
DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
| ||||
Jane the Virgin
|
Riverdale
| ||||
Supergirl
| |||||
Supernatural
| |||||
The Flash
|
Jane the Virgin: Looking at the ratings, Jane the Virgin averages 63% of the ad rating, but only 51% of the CW average. Because this show is in season 4, this show will hit the 70-80 episode mark. Since it is on Friday, ad rates are going to be lower. Obviously it is not making money off of ad rates, and the only thing that could save it is streaming numbers. But since the show is produced by CBS, I'm also applying the studio factor. The show is still the highest rated CBS produced show on air, and that's why the show remains in the "likely to be renewed" category.
Dynasty: Dynasty is drastically underperforming according to its ad rates and is currently tied with Crazy Ex-Girlfriend at 45% of the CW average. The only positive besides being fully produced by CBS I can see is that the Netflix deal got it 22 episodes. But the negative: it's moving to Friday in-season. I'm going back and forth between Jane and Dynasty this season, as it may depend on streaming numbers. Dynasty remains "likely to be canceled".
Like with FOX, mediocrely rated veterans based on ad rates will be examined on a case by case basis. However, because the CW has a huge gap in ratings performance levels between the CBS produced shows (all the lowest rated shows) and the WB produced shows (all the middle-tier and highest rated shows), it may help to create two separate tables of ad rates separated by production studio.
For now, let's talk about the midseason rookies, Life Sentence and Black Lightning.
Black Lightning's relative ad rate has it at 102% of the CW average. The debut episode of Black Lightning blows it out of the water at 163% of the CW average. My prospects of the CW series that in order to break even, the show will have to average a 0.5 in the A18-49 demo L+SD, about the same as the other three DC shows (Arrow, DC's Legends of Tomorrow, and Supergirl). But I think the show will perform slightly higher than that. Black Lightning should easily clear that threshold into a renewal.
Life Sentence has a higher relative ad rate at 113% of the CW average. Since Riverdale is at 114% of the CW ratings average currently, the ratings average it might expect to get is somewhat close, which is a 0.55 in A18-49 rating for L+SD. But I think this show will underwhelm expectations. I predict that it will perform around a 0.3-0.4 in most airings.
With that being said, we still don't have the ad rates for the returning veterans. Stay tuned to the next CW Renew/Cancel installment for more details on predictions.
