FOX Renew/Cancel: Gotham Might Be In Trouble

A Recap Of The Methodology
As you may know, I use a different methodology to predicting fates of shows than other sites. I look closely at the ad rates as reported by AdAge and Variety and compare a show’s ad rate relative to the average of the Network, and its relative A18-49 L+SD ratings. While such ratings are becoming less relevant over time, doing this has shown to be effective in the recent past at predicting the fates of veteran series with mediocre ratings. The basic gist:

-Any show which has a relative ad rate above its relative ratings standing is very likely to return for another season. I predicted The Exorcist’s second-season renewal using this, and TVRG was the only site to correctly predict its fate.

-New shows which have a relative ad rate below its relative ratings can still be renewed, as much of the ad rates for new shows are based overwhelmingly on speculation.

-Veteran shows (4+ seasons) which have a relative ad rate below its relative ratings will be examined on a case-by-case basis. Something like Empire won’t be canceled just because of this, as it’s still a high-rated show. Shows like Gotham and The Last Man On Earth, which typically see mediocre ratings, are more subject to this.

The Table

Gotham is in a tough situation right now; it currently sits at 76% of FOX's A18-49 L+SD average. Its average ad rate as stated by Variety, which includes many more shows than the AdAge publication, is 78% of FOX's average ad rate. FOX does not own Gotham and ratings have not been getting better; they've been steadily dropping over 20% every season. If that trend continues, it will be an outright L+SD flop and wouldn't do much use in a time slot outside of maybe Fridays at 9. As they still have The Gifted and likely Lucifer in the Marvel/DC universes. It shouldn't be too difficult to find a show, preferably owned and/or cheaper, to do the same or better numbers in the time slot. Still, a close watch should be kept on Gotham to see if it improves. 

LA to Vegas
While LA to Vegas' ratings are far from stellar, process of elimination says that it should have a solid chance for renewal. With New Girl and likely Brooklyn Nine-Nine ending, as well as The Mick having lower ratings, and LA to Vegas is the only Tuesday comedy left. 

The Last Man On Earth
The Last Man On Earth has never aired in January before, but it's certain benefitted a bit from the football halo. It currently sits at around 76% of FOX's average and 73% of FOX's ad rate average as reported by Variety. Plus, assuming a Brooklyn Nine-Nine cancelation, canceling Last Man On Earth would leave either The Mick or Ghosted as FOX's longest-running live-action comedy. I'm predicting one more 18-episode season to get it to syndication.

The Mick
It does seem like FOX likes The Mick, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if it does well enough online. However, it's now buried at the end of the Tuesday night lineup and is one of their lowest-rated shows. With Ghosted and LA to Vegas as potent enough options, they may not need to drag The Mick out any longer. A last-minute move to Sunday to try to salvage it in the spring could change my prediction.

What do you think of my predictions? Want to know my reasonings for other shows? Let me know in the comments below!

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