ABC Renew/Cancel Week 14: Big Sky is a Big Hit

Big Sky entered hiatus last week after a string of highly-rated episodes. This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, I dig a bit deeper into one of the strongest new shows of the season.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Call Your Mother (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
For Life (0.3, 0.3-0.5)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6, 0.4-0.6)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.7, 0.6-0.9)
The Goldbergs (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
The Good Doctor (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
Grey's Anatomy (1.2, 1.2-1.3)
A Million Little Things (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Mixed-ish (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Rookie (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Big Sky (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
Blackish (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.2)

Coming Soon:
Home Economics
Women of the Movement

Big Sky: Expectations for Big Sky weren't exactly high given the history of its seemingly-cursed timeslot. Then, it did well after The Bachelorette and remained remarkable steady through the fall. Airing after the Ish duo surely seemed like it would cripple it. It didn't, and it remained at the exact ratings it was with that big Bachelorette lead-in. It grew consistently from Mixed-ish, and it became one of the highest-rated 10 PM dramas, even with a weak lead-in. Through it all, Big Sky has delivered. It's going to be off the air for a few months now, and we don't know yet how it will perform then. What we do know, however, is that there's a lot of interest here, and ABC and Disney see potential. It's become a central part of marketing for their new international streaming expansion of Disney+, Star, and I don't see them promoting a show like that if they didn't have plans for it long-term. Even if the second half of the season comes in weaker, the odds of a cancellation are essentially non-existent. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

The Rookie: Speaking of 10 PM dramas, another show doing solidly for ABC is The Rookie. Though was in a rough situation for the early part of the season, it managed to hold on pretty well. Now that American Idol is back, its ratings have improved a bit, though it's not quite at the level it was last season post-Idol. Its 0.5 last night behind American Idol is fine, but isn't as impressive when compared to CBS's NCIS: New Orleans (0.5 behind a 0.6) or other ABC shows like Big Sky, The Hustler, and 20/20, which are doing 0.5s and above with worse lead-ins. A cancellation is far-fetched, but I need more data before an upgrade. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL for now.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

Where would you place Big Sky?
Certain Renewal
Likely Renewal
Leans Renewal
Leans Cancellation
Likely Cancellation
Certain Cancellation

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