ABC Renew/Cancel Week 27: RJ Decker Looks Like the Odd Man Out + Final Predictions for The Greatest Average American, Shark Tank, American Idol & More!

The ABC season is nearing its end, and the network is expected to hand out renewal and cancellation decisions as soon as this week. With most of ABC's lineup already renewed for next season, it's time for me to take a look at the stragglers, and see which shows are likely to return, and which we've likely seen the last of.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies (0.12, 0.08-0.15)
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.18, 0.13-0.23)

Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (0.23, 0.17-0.28)

Likely Renewal:

Celebrity Jeopardy! (0.31, 0.28-0.32)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Shark Tank (0.17, 0.11-0.24)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.20, 0.12-0.32)

American Idol (0.44, 0.36-0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.35, 0.24-0.57)

Already Renewed:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Abbott Elementary

Dancing with the Stars

Grey's Anatomy

High Potential

The Rookie

Scrubs

Shifting Gears

Will Trent

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

RJ Decker: I've gone back and forth on RJ Decker over its short first season, and in this final update, I have to make a final call. I remain uncertain, but my gut is pointing me towards moving it back to a cancellation prediction.

I previously thought that ABC's limited development slate was a good sign for RJ Decker. With only one drama pilot to compete against, and plenty of schedule space, there was a clear path to a renewal and a slot on the schedule for RJ Decker, even if ABC loved their pilot. However, ABC passing on comedy Do You Want Kids? and again ordering short seasons of Shifting Gears and Scrubs is a sign that ABC may be content with the amount of scripted programming they currently have. That RJ Decker is the only scripted show on ABC awaiting a renewal is already a bad sign, but it also seems like it's in direct competition with the Rookie: North pilot. Rookie creator Alexi Hawley is already talking about future plans for The Rookie: North, and while creators are often openly optimistic about their pilot's pickup chances, it does seem like ABC has given him positive indicators about a pickup. If ABC doesn't want to expand scripted programming, and they're planning to pick up their drama pilot (it would be extremely rare for a network to not pick up at least one new scripted series), well... that's bad news for RJ Decker in a world where everything else on ABC has been renewed.

It's not as if RJ Decker has lit the world on fire in the ratings. With just a 0.18 linear ratings average in the key 18-49 demo, it is ABC's lowest-rated scripted series in just its first season. It's typically - but not always, just ask Will Trent - down from here, so we're probably looking at the strongest ratings RJ Decker will ever see. Its move from 10 PM to 9 PM saw an initially-promising ratings upswing, but it dropped the next two weeks, and ended its run with a below-average 0.17. That's lower than its last 10 PM episode, and it's a clearly cancellation-worthy performance for an ABC scripted series at 9 PM. I don't see the potential here for RJ Decker to blossom into anything that make another expensive promotional campaign for season two worth it. It already got a time slot upgrade in its first season, and did little with it to impress.

It's also not exactly been a highlight on streaming. While not a complete bust from the streaming data we do have (which is admittedly very little - ABC hasn't been in a rush to brag about its performance), it's arguably their weakest drama on Hulu. It's certainly much weaker than The Rookie, which is probably another point in The Rookie: North's favor, as ABC will be hoping that a spinoff of one of their top streaming performers will somewhat replicate the success of its parent show.

ABC has a tough decision to make with RJ Decker. While they've done a lot to try to make it work, including repeating it numerous times and giving it a time slot upgrade, even ABC can probably admit that their efforts advent' been all that fruitful. RJ Decker has struggled to find an audience, and is one of their worst performers. Its ratings aren't catastrophic enough to entirely rule out a renewal, but they're not good, either. I expect them to cut their losses early here and focus on laughing The Rookie: North instead. It moves to a leans cancellation prediction this week, and that's where it will remain, with a decision likely just around the corner. Renewal odds: 40%

Betrayal: Secrets & Lies: Another show I've struggled with is midseason filler Betrayal: Secrets & Lies. It had some OK performances for a cheap show airing Sundays at 10 PM, but it's also had some weeks where it's been an outright embarrassment. With a 0.12 average, it's ABC's lowest-rated series, and ABC has no reason to go out of their way to renew it for another season and find a slot for it on their schedule next season. Its best hope to return is for ABC to need a cheap filler show to fill a vacant time slot, but even then, they can probably pull a new 20/20-branded show out of thin air and it will probably do better than this. ABC doesn't need it, and it moves back down to a likely cancellation. Renewal odds: 25%

Shark Tank: This was really not a good season for Shark Tank. As it moved away from its longtime Friday night home and took on a new 10 PM slot, Shark Tank slid 38%. The only show with a lower average than Shark Tank's 0.17 was Betrayal: Secrets & Lies, which is far from ideal company to be in. Its streaming performance is also practically non-existent, rarely charting on Hulu - and only being towards the bottom of the chart on the very rare chance it does chart. Despite that, Shark Tank is a staple of the ABC schedule, and recent repeats of the show indicate it does still have life in it. The 9 PM repeat last week out-rated its season average, and showed that an earlier time slot could possibly breathe life back into it. There aren't many early slots available for such a move, but there's the chance to rehabilitate the shows ratings standing if ABC wants to do so. I think an unceremonious axing of this iconic show would be pretty surprising at this point, but with an episode reduction this season, the end may be nearing if its ratings erosion continues. Renewal odds: 85%

American Idol: This season of American Idol hasn't been its strongest, and it's down about 20% as it's moved to Monday nights. Its live shows in particular haven't held up that well year-to-year, with no major ratings uptick (yet) as the season finale nears. Despite that, it is still one of ABC's highest-rated series, and it's been a reliably solid performer even during a down season. Only Dancing with the Stars and Scrubs had higher averages this year, and while it is an expensive reality show to produce, it gets the results ABC needs to keep it going. Idol is in no danger this season. Renewal odds: 100%

The Greatest Average Americans: Ironically, this is just about the most "average" performer on ABC's schedule. It's far from a breakout hit, but it hasn't done too poorly for an inexpensive game show that aired in the spring. ABC cycles through new game shows at a pretty quick rate, and this could easily be another one-and-done midseason entry. I think it's done well enough to expect a renewal, though, and there's clearly room for it - and seemingly a desire by ABC to devote a large portion of its schedule to reality. Renewal odds: 60%

The Golden Bachelor: It's been an awful season for the Bachelor franchise, with The Golden Bachelor tanking, the scandal-plagued Bachelorette being yanked from the schedule before airing, and The Bachelor and Bachelor in Paradise both taking 2026 off entirely. ABC has relied heavily on this franchise, and the most recent show in the franchise to air was a huge disappointment. The Golden Bachelor was perhaps doomed from the start of this season, with outrage aimed at the second season's lead over comments perceived as ageist, despite leading a show called The Golden Bachelor. It seemingly turned off potential viewers, and while a lot of online outrage rarely leads to genuine ratings movement, Golden Bachelor returned to just a 0.28 in the demo, down over 50% from its season one premiere. The lack of interest remained all season, and the show slipped as low as 0.16 (in just its second episode), ending with only a 0.19. The Greatest Average American performed better in the spring despite not being from a known franchise, and Shark Tank performed much better once it moved away from The Golden Bachelor. In every sense, The Golden Bachelor seemed to weaken ABC and their Wednesday lineup. The Golden Bachelorette, which aired in an earlier Wednesday slot the previous fall, was weak enough already, and this season should really give ABC pause about moving ahead with these "Golden" spinoffs. Recent articles about the franchise's return in the Taylor Frankie Paul fallout haven't mentioned the Golden shows at all, and it's possible ABC now sees the picture that was clearly painted by the last two seasons of not-so-golden ratings. Don't expect this tarnished Bachelor offshoot to return in the future. Renewal odds: 30%

Scrubs and Shifting Gears: Two shows whose immediate futures aren't in doubt are Scrubs and Shifting Gears. Both comedies will, as predicted here, be back for next season, though they'll both air limited seasons again. This seems to eliminate the possibility of a comedy expansion next season. With both comedies seemingly being much weaker in delayed viewing than they are in linear viewing, it remains to be seen how long they can both run - especially if they continue to air these limited seasons and share a time slot. For now, though, they're both safe, and we'll see them back on ABC's schedule next season.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		RJ Decker	High Potential (R)
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	The Greatest Average American	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Jeopardy!		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	America's Funniest Home Videos		Celebrity Jeopardy! (R)	Betrayal: Secrets & Lies