Certain to be Canceled:
N/A
Likely to be Canceled:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Bear Grylls is Running Wild (Fox) (0.14, 0.12-0.18)
Farmer Wants a Wife (Fox) (0.14, 0.13-0.16)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.19, 0.13-0.23)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.19, 0.13-0.25)
Certain to be Renewed:
N/A
Fate Determined:
The Floor (Fox) (Renewed)
MasterChef (Fox) (Renewed)
Yet to Premiere:
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
Big Brother (CBS)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
Dancing with the Stars: The Next Pro (ABC)
Kitchen Nightmares (Fox)
Nation's Dumbest (Fox)
Password (NBC)
Press Your Luck (ABC)
The Wall (NBC)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC)
Bear Grylls is Running Wild: Of the reality series on Fox's late spring/early summer schedule, I think Running Wild is the most at risk of not returning for another season. It's the only "new" show on the lineup, with the other shows all being veteran Fox staples. It's also performing demonstrably worse than the other shows on Hulu, charting just once on Hulu since its premiere, while every other reality show charts fairly consistently (even the Monday game shows, which typically chart once a week). It's fairly clear that this is a show driven by casual viewers, with few catching up on streaming if they miss an episode. Running Wild has been thrown around various networks over the course of its run, first airing four seasons on NBC before being canceled, then running another four on Nat Geo before they parted with it, before now going to Fox. There's a reason it hasn't been able to stay in one home - it's never exactly been a hit. That makes it no major shock that it isn't really standing out on Fox, either.
Its current 0.14 average is bad enough to make it Fox's lowest-rated show of the season, and it's also easily their least-watched. Fox is not known for being aggressive with canceling reality shows. Shows like the aforementioned Farmer Wants a Wife, Crime Scene Kitchen, Special Forces, and Name That Tune have all survived for several seasons despite always being middling performers. Of the four shows I just mentioned, not one of them averaged above 0.20 for its most recent season, yet all but Farmer are already confirmed to be renewed. Their standards aren't all that high, and they often give second chances to shows with fairly questionable ratings. A lot of these shows are pretty cheap, and while Running Wild features some big-name guests, a cable network like Nat Geo being able to afford it for four seasons suggests it's probably not all that pricy to produce, either. That's why I'll start Running Wild as a leans renewal prediction.
Farmer Wants a Wife: It's never been a strong performer, but Farmer Wants a Wife is somehow already on its fourth Fox season. It seems more likely than not that it'll make it to a fifth season, as well. Its ratings this season are predictably mediocre, with just a 0.14 average thus far. That makes it one of Fox's lowest-rated series, currently rating just a few thousands above its lead-out, Running Wild (0.142 vs 0.138). While that difference is practically non-existent, and doesn't make much of an argument for Farmer's renewal, there is one area where Farmer Wants a Wife is fairly strong, and that's streaming. On Hulu, Farmer Wants a Wife regularly peaks in the top 10, spending about half the week on the Hulu top 15 chart on average. That doesn't mean it's some sort of streaming powerhouse, but that is a better performance than a lot of Fox's other summer reality programs. The show is likely fairly cheap to produce, as well, so this streaming performance should be enough. After all, it was enough the last three seasons, when the show similarly ranked among Fox's lowest-rated series.
The one thing that does give me pause about this show, aside from its poor linear ratings, is that Fox has moved it later in the season than it's ever aired before, in addition to trimming its episode order to the shortest Fox season so far. It previously premiered in the late winter or very early spring, never airing past the end of the regular broadcast season. This season, it's a part of what is essentially Fox's "early summer" schedule, alongside summer staples like MasterChef and The 1% Club. Of course, The Floor is also airing alongside those shows, and that show is already returning in fall with no end in sight, so this isn't necessarily a death warrant for Farmer Wants a Wife. There wasn't any room for it earlier this year, with Fox airing more scripted series, though next season will be no different. If Fox continues with this season's scheduling next year, and again premieres some shows in late spring and then replaces them mid-summer, then Farmer should be fine. If Fox is looking to pare down its reality offerings, Farmer might be in some trouble, as one of their lowest-rated series. They have a lot of reality shows on their lineup, and they could pretty easily part with some of them. I still think is performance on streaming will help it out, as it does better on Hulu than plenty of reality shows we've already seen renewed this season (Celebrity Weakest Link and Name That Tune, for example). I'll be a bit conservative here, since I don't think it's exactly a lock, but it will most likely return. It leans renewal.
What do you think of these predictions? Let us know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
