ABC Renew/Cancel Week 10: Shifting Gears Shifts Into High Gear

It's been a month since the last ABC Renew/Cancel, and there have been many new entries since then, all in the last week. Not only did ABC renew a new Tuesday drama lineup, they're also debuted a new sitcom on Wednesday, finally giving Abbott Elementary another comedy to air with. Keep reading to see how these premieres went, and my outlook for them.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.29, 0.22-0.40)
The Rookie (0.34)

Leans Renewal
N/A

Likely Renewal:
Grey's Anatomy (0.24, 0.19-0.31)
High Potential (0.33, 0.26-0.50)
Shifting Gears (0.66)
Will Trent (0.50)

Certain Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.39, 0.31-0.47)
Abbott Elementary (0.37, 0.26-0.68)

Already Ending:
The Conners

Shifting Gears: Last week, ABC premiered its final new scripted series of the season. In its debut, Shifting Gears drew what was by far the highest rating for a pilot this season, with a 0.66 in the demo. It was slightly upstaged by its lead-out, Abbott Elementary, which managed to somehow build on it with a 0.68 - a new series high, four seasons in. However, Abbott's excellent performance doesn't take a way from just how impressive that 0.66 is for Shifting Gears. This is the highest premiere for a new ABC comedy since The Wonder Years, which premiered a single hundredth higher in a season where the league average was nearly two full tenths higher. Shifting Gears is not only the highest-rated premiere for a new show this season, but the highest-rated premiere for any scripted show. It's currently ABC's #2 show overall, trailing only the juggernaut Dancing with the Stars. While it's a bit of a shock to see ratings this high these days, perhaps it shouldn't be. Tim Allen is a known property at ABC, having previously starred in two long-running sitcoms on the network. Though it was over a decade ago, his last sitcom, Last Man Standing, had a similarly strong start - on both ABC and Fox. This role was less of a "comeback" for Allen, so I didn't expect as many to sample it, but clearly there is still a lot of interest in the sitcom veteran and his projects. However, it's important to reminder how both of Last Man Standing's runs panned out. Its first season premiered to a 3.6 in the demo and went as low as 1.5, far below that year's league average. Its first season on Fox (and seventh overall) debuted with a giant 1.8, its highest showing since season two, six years before, but was down to a 0.8 by the end of the season. People sample projects starring beloved TV vets like Allen, but they don't always stick around. Obviously, Last Man Standing ended up having a very solid six season run on ABC, before being canceled not due to low ratings, but due to costs that were too high for a Friday sitcom. Such a run for Shifting Gears would be a big win for ABC, but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. ABC's Tuesday and Wednesday lineups got off to such strong starts that I can only assume these results won't last, that they benefited from the higher January viewing levels and strong promotional pushes, as well as sampling from viewers that may not be here to stay. I find it nearly impossible to imagine Shifting Gears dropping anywhere near enough to be canceled after this start, but I do want to be cautious and see where it stabilizes before going so far as to label its renewal a certainty. I jumped the gun on St. Denis Medical after its similar strong start, and it sunk in week two, leaving me to somewhat regret my early confidence. I don't want to be too overconfident here, and so I will start Shifting Gears as a LIKELY RENEWAL. Don't be surprised to see an upgrade for this show (or some of those Tuesday shows that also premiered strong last week) in the very near future.

The Rookie: While its performance paled in comparison to Will Trent and High Potential, I was surprised to see The Rookie premiere as solidly as it did last week, as I was expecting the series to premiere towards its series low. It was given a time slot downgrade, and both Will Trent and High Potential were fairly typical 0.3 performers before last week, so it didn't seem all that likely that it would get too much lead-in support. In the end, those two shows exploded to new series highs. The Rookie did not, and was still down about 10% from its previous season premiere, with a 0.34. That's a solid hold when you consider the move, and a solid showing for a 10 PM series. It's also up pretty noticeably from the end of last season, when it was barely managing rounded 0.3s for the most part. It's left me feeling a bit less down on the Rookie's chances, though I do still think this is the final season. For one, this is just the premiere rating, in a week where scripted shows on ABC rated far higher than expected, with performances that may not actually hold up as time goes on. The Rookie premiered higher than The Good Doctor premiered in the same slot last year, but even the Good Doctor premiered much higher than it ultimately settled, so we could see a precipitous drop for The Rookie if it follows that trajectory (or even its own trajectory from the second half of last season). It remains too early in the season to draw much of anything from The Rookie's ratings, though, so it may well hold steady as the season goes on. However, my main reason for believing this will be the final season of The Rookie is not based on its ratings, it's based on history. Few dramas in recent years have surpassed seven seasons, with The Good Doctor and Station 19 both ending there last season. In fact, an ABC drama hasn't passed seven seasons since Nathan Fillion's last show, Castle, all the way back in 2015. Few shows even made it to seven seasons, but the few that did weren't really worth it for ABC to continue them past the seventh season, due to the rising costs associated with an eighth season. In most cases, contracts would need to be renegotiated, due to actors only being contracted for seven seasons of the show. In The Rookie's case, many of its current cast members are original cast members, whose contracts will need to be renegotiated, and may be looking for a pay raise. The actors aren't the only ones responsible for rising costs, as the expense of production itself also tends to rise over time. It's possible that The Rookie does well enough for ABC to justify paying these costs, but they only co-produce it with Lionsgate, so any profits they make from the show also have to be shared. Solid ratings aren't always enough on their own to save shows from the fact that TV is a business, and if they're not making enough money, performing decently well is not enough to spare it. For that reason, The Rookie LEANS CANCELLATION from the start, though that's a less severe prediction than I had for it going into the season.

Interactive Schedule:


The TV Ratings Guide 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00
Mon The Bachelor The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives
Tues Will Trent High Potential The Rookie
Wed Shifting Gears Abbott Elementary Celebrity Jeopardy! What Would You Do?
Thurs Extreme Makeover: Home Edition Only Murders In The Building
Fri Shark Tank 20/20
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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