This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I take a look at two of NBC's lowest-rated series and assess whether either have any shot of returning next season. Plus, an early look at the network's newest drama before its official debut early next month!
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.23, 0.17-0.29)
The Irrational (0.19, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.22, 0.18-0.29)
Night Court (0.25, 0.20-0.32)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med (0.40, 0.33-0.46)
Happy's Place (0.27, 0.21-0.35)
Law & Order (0.30, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.39, 0.35-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.34, 0.30-0.38)
Law & Order: SVU (0.35, 0.29-0.41)
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.55-1.24)
Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
The Hunting Party
Suits: LA
Renewed:
St. Denis Medical
The Irrational: I try my hardest to never overreact to a single rating when it comes to making predictions. Shows sometimes have an off night, or an unusually good night, and it's best to wait a bit to see it a trendy sticks. However... sometimes a rating is just too horrific to ignore. This week, The Irrational drew perhaps the worst rating we've ever seen for an original airing on the Big Three, a 0.10 in the key demo, hitting a 0.08 (!) in its second half-hour. I don't need to tell you that this is abysmal, a genuinely inexcusable performance that NBC - and its affiliates - can not possibly be happy about. The Rookie is doing fine on ABC, but its 0.31 is hardly massive competition, nor is the 0.22 for the FBI: Most Wanted repeat. Competition on cable was minimal as well, so The Irrational has no excuse for dropping so low. I was already heavily considering a downgrade last week, due to its string of poor performances that already made it one of NBC's lowest-rated shows, but this is the straw the broke the camel's back. Dropping from 0.31 to 0.10 in just ten episodes shows that this show has no audience of its own, and relies entirely on its lead-in. Deal or No Deal Island is far from a strong lead-in, but even that show's 0.20 rating was enough to inflate The Irrational a bit, with the show dropping from 0.11 to 0.08 over the course of an hour. Viewers gave this show another chance when it returned for season two, but they quickly got bored of it, and people keep dropping it as the season goes on. I don't expect it to hold at 0.10 for the rest of the season, as we rarely ever see ratings this low at all, but it's certainly not going to get back into renewal territory anytime soon. This show would be DOA even if NBC didn't need to cut back on programming next season, and the NBA deal just solidifies the inevitable. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION, and it'll be lucky to even air its full order at NBC if it keeps this up.
Lopez vs Lopez: The last time I wrote about Lopez vs Lopez, things were already looking pretty dire, but there were small glimmers of hope. While Happy's Place had its order extended a few weeks before, it wasn't yet confirmed that Lopez vs Lopez had wrapped filming, so it was still technically possible for the show to be extended. That's no longer the case. With just two episodes remaining in the show's third season, the show will wrap on February 7 without any episode extension, despite NBC's earlier order for three additional scripts. Perhaps even more damning than NBC opting against extending its order is that they have nothing to replace it with. Happy's Place will air alone in the 8 PM hour for its final five episodes, paired up with repeats of itself, the already-renewed St. Denis Medical, and Night Court. If NBC is prioritizing repeats over this show, it's hard to imagine any realistic path to renewal. They've given us mixed signals about its fate in the past, having cut its order for season two and practically burned it off in the spring before renewing it soon after. However, thanks to the strike shortening the broadcast season, that was a bit more explainable than this. They didn't really have the room for it then, but they've clearly got the room now, and they're cutting the season short anyway. With just 45 episodes after three seasons, it's nowhere near syndication, which is already less lucrative anyway in this streaming era. I don't really see any need for this show on NBC's schedule, especially with them losing out on Tuesday nights next season and therefore likely needing to cut their comedy offerings. This show has surprised me with its resilience in the past, so maybe it'll pull it off again this time, but there's no rational reason to actually anticipate that. I'll hold out on downgrading it to a certain cancellation, because I don't think its renewal odds are 0%, but it's pretty close. It's a (very) LIKELY CANCELLATION.
The Hunting Party: This week, NBC aired a "special preview" of new drama The Hunting Party at 7 PM on Sunday, soon after the conclusion of an NFC playoff game. With a 0.46 demo rating, it's a very underwhelming post-NFL rating, but it the Nightly News did air between it and football, and we don't know how that rated, so it's very difficult to properly assess this performance. I'll be waiting to predict this show until I see how it performs in its regular time slot, Mondays at 10, on February 10, as this one-off Sunday airing was very unorthodox, and doesn't tell us much of anything about its linear ratings strength.
Interactive Schedule:
The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mon | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||||
Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | Deal or No Deal Island | The Irrational | ||
Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC |
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!