NBC Renew/Cancel Week 16: Can Netflix Save The Hunting Party?

The NBC Renew/Cancel returns from an Olympics break a week earlier than expected, as I break down how a streaming deal may impact the renewal odds for one of NBC's struggling dramas.

Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.13, 0.11-0.18)

Likely Cancellation:

The Hunting Party (0.14, 0.10-0.17)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.17, 0.11-0.22)
The Wall (0.14, 0.12-0.19)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.22, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
The Voice (0.24, 0.24-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.33, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.29, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.60, 0.43-0.70)

Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Surviving Earth

Already Renewed:
Happy's Place (0.24, 0.18-0.26)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.34)

The Hunting Party: This week, The Hunting Party made its debut on Netflix with the release of its full first season, as part of a growing trend of broadcast series being licensed to the streaming giant once again, which we hadn't been seeing much in recent years due to most production studios launching their own streamers. Netflix will certainly provide a far wider audience reach for The Hunting Party than Peacock provided, and it's giving it a much-needed opportunity to break out and make a last-minute renewal argument to NBC, after a season and a half of truly terrible ratings on NBC. We haven't seen Netflix save many shows in recent years - The Equalizer was still canceled by CBS despite getting a deal (but CBS didn't fully own the show, either), Watson is careening quickly towards cancellation despite a recent deal, and NBC's own Manifest (also starring Melissa Roxburgh!) was canceled in 2021 even though it was a huge success Netflix. However, it is a clear boost. Netflix was able to keep Good Girls on the air for several seasons longer than its linear ratings would've suggested (though its luck ran out eventually), and The Blacklist had a ten-season run in large part thanks to a huge Netflix deal, as its ratings heyday had ended long before the show itself said farewell. In other words, Netflix is absolutely capable of saving broadcast shows, even clearly struggling ones, but it's not a surefire sign that a show is granted a free pass to rate however it pleases. Sometimes, even the promise of a Netflix deal isn't enough to outweigh the other negatives working against a series. The Hunting Party has been on Netflix for just a few days, but it does seem to be finding somewhat of an audience. While we have no concrete data on how many people have watched it yet, it debuted at #3 on their TV chart, and actually rose to #2 for one day - only trailing the buzzy America's Next Top Model documentary. That's a pretty solid performance overall, and there does seem to be some streaming interest in it - just as we've seen on Peacock. That could theoretically save it. I'm not convinced that it will, though. NBC does seem very prepared to move on from the show (and Brilliant Minds), with five drama pilots lined up, most of which have cast some very notable TV stars to headline them (including 9-1-1's Peter Krause, Bones stars David Boreanaz and Emily Deschanel - in separate pilots, and Damon Wayans Jr.). With two full nights taken up by sports, another night likely taken up by the Chicagos, and Fridays also likely off-limits, the space on the schedule is very limited. I just don't see it as a possibility that NBC has ordered this many pilots in this cost-cutting era without the intention to pick up several of them. There aren't many spots available on NBC's schedule, and while The Hunting Party could theoretically run for another short season in the winter, it seems more likely that NBC would just pick up another of their drama pilots to fill the slot that the already proven ratings misfire The Hunting Party would've otherwise filled. If its performance on Netflix proves to be truly encouraging, NBC might be better off negotiating for a season as a Netflix original, or keeping it for Peacock. Neither scenario seems entirely likely to me, but are probably still more likely than it being renewed on NBC, where I don't see a path forward in any way. The Hunting Party and its 0.14 season two average remains a likely cancellation.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	Stumble (R)	The Wall	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	The Hunting Party
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	Encores
Sun	Sunday Night Football