ABC Renew/Cancel Week 17: Grey’s Anatomy’s Vitals Are Strong

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, new multiplatform data shines a light on two series that haven't aired in several weeks, leading to a prediction change for one o them. Keep reading to see which show is on the move, and which show continues to look worse as time goes on.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.26, 0.19-0.29)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.33, 0.30-0.35)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.25, 0.18-0.32)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Shark Tank (0.16, 0.11-0.20)

Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)

Will Trent (0.35, 0.25-0.40)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.18, 0.12-0.23)

Abbott Elementary (0.33, 0.26-0.43)

American Idol (0.54, 0.43-0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.30, 0.24-0.39)

Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)

Grey's Anatomy (0.19, 0.13-0.27)

High Potential (0.36, 0.28-0.42)

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

Coming Soon:

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

The Greatest Average American

RJ Decker

Scrubs

Grey's Anatomy: In linear ratings, Grey's Anatomy is a show that is clearly long past its prime. What was once a genuine smash hit is now ABC's lowest-rated series, tucked away in a 10 PM time slot and slipping as low as rounded 0.1s. It had an absolutely fantastic run, but we're at the point where it's being kept alive for reasons besides its linear ratings, which on its face are cancellation-worthy on a network like ABC, which is in a healthy place this season. Thankfully for Grey's Anatomy, a lot more goes into renewal decisions these days than just its first-run ratings. This show is a titan of streaming and international sales, being - by far - ABC's biggest international hit, drawing billions of dollars in international revenue for Disney. That's one of the biggest reasons it's so well-positioned to last far longer than its linear rating suggest. But its recent multiplatform ratings have also been promising. Last season, Grey's Anatomy was one of the lowest-rated ABC series in multiplatform ratings, with only the canceled shows (The Conners and Doctor Odyssey) rating lower than it. That was an unusual place for Grey's Anatomy - long a delayed ratings hit, even in days when it didn't matter as much as it does now - to be. Recent ratings reports show that things have evolved a bit. In the MP+7 demo, Grey's Anatomy was narrowly ahead of both 9-1-1 shows, and well ahead of Shifting Gears. We didn't get any multiplatform ratings for some time, but ABC finally revealed some additional ratings, and they're very promising. While Grey's has showed signs of further decline (down to a 1.37 for the last episode before its February break, versus a 1.55 for its premiere), it maintains its lead over the 9-1-1s, and is also far ahead of Will Trent (they have not provided information on Shifting Gears, but it's likely also well ahead of that series, too). Grey's has improved its overall multiplatform position this season, an impressive feat for a show more than a decade older than even the next-oldest series on the network. With international sales remaining strong and the show still on solid footing on streaming, I don't see an end coming imminently, and certainly not in just a few months. It's certain to be renewed for another season at this point.

9-1-1: Nashville: While the multiplatform ratings for Grey's Anatomy have been promising, 9-1-1: Nashville's are quite concerning. This is a spinoff of a series that's already seen better days itself, so its sampling was solid, but didn't exactly give it a ton of room to fall. A 1.51 premiere in MP+7 is pretty good, but being a new show, it was bound to decline. And it did decline. It was down to a 1.09 for its most recent episode, a 28% decline from its premiere. That puts it barely ahead of Will Trent, the lowest-rated scripted show on ABC in multiplatform ratings this season (pending the performance of Shifting Gears, which ABC has kept mum about since its premiere). It also trains Will Trent by several million viewers (7 million versus 9 million). To make matters worse, the episode in which it hit that 1.09 in the demo was the same episode where it hit a series high in linear ratings (a 0.32), suggesting Nashville is only growing about eight tenths in multiplaform at the most, and that the 1.09 may not be its series low in MP+7. I've expressed my concerns about Nashville's longevity in the past, and now that it's one of ABC's lowest-rated scripted shows in MP+7, the alarm bells are are getting louder. However, I remain steadfast in the belief that ABC won't be quick to cancel a 9-1-1 spinoff, especially one still generally doing okay in the grand scheme of things. This won't be a long-term replacement for 9-1-1, and ABC does need to start thinking about a possible replacement for the series, but I still think it's likely to be back next season, even with these disappointing performances. However, with ABC's entire slate of shows looking solid, it is still among their most vulnerable scripted series, which really speaks to how successful of a season they'e having overall.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		High Potential	Encores
Wed	Shifting Gears	Abbott Elementary	Dirty Talk	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney