Welcome to the latest edition of Paramount+ Renew/Cancel. Below is a table of predictions for scripted originals. This edition comes days after the cancelation of iCarly, commonly thought of as one of Paramount+’s top series. Below the table is an analysis on iCarly’s cancelation, as well as discussion on current renewal odds for shows whose fates are currently in limbo.
As of the previous edition Paramount+ Renew/Cancel, iCarly was ranked at #6 on the trending TV Shows list, with 3 appearances on the home page. It even helped bring the original Nickelodeon series back into the Top 120 and gained some attention online. I was prepared to downgrade iCarly from Likely Renew to Leans Renew simply because it didn’t get immediately renewed, but ultimately expected to see a Season 4 renewal for this revival. Since adopting this model for predicting renewals and cancelations for Paramount+, iCarly is the only show concurrently predicted to be renewed that ultimately got canceled. Viewership appeared to be just fine for Paramount+, with plenty of fan interaction on social media as well.
This arguably displays the fundamental difference between why a broadcast TV show gets renewed and why a streaming TV show gets renewed. On broadcast, if a show gets enough viewers in the right demographic, the networks will be able to sell more ads at a higher price and cover the expenses of airing the show. On the other hand, streaming services don’t really care what you watch as long as you have their service. Paramount+ likely determined that a fourth season of iCarly wasn’t going to bring in many new subscribers, and that anyone who was going to subscribe for iCarly has done so already. They likely also determined that iCarly viewers also use the streaming service for other reasons; meaning Paramount+ doesn’t anticipate people to unsubscribe en masse if that one show is canceled. Unlike some other recently-canceled shows, iCarly is still available to stream on Paramount+, demonstrating its relative popularity in viewership.
Frasier
Paramount+’s long-awaited revival of Frasier just premiered its first two episodes, and will have a linear premiere on CBS on Tuesday. Chances are Paramount+ is better for this revival to do well for them, both in viewership and subscriber sign-ups. After a string of cancelations, Frasier is the only non-canceled original comedy on Paramount+, possibly demonstrating there isn’t as much of an audience for comedy on the streaming service as there is for drama. However, the original series has been popular on Paramount+ for quite some time now in the lead-up to the premiere of the revival. Frasier undoubtedly had a good first two days for Paramount+, with the revival being listed as the most popular TV show and the original series fluctuating between #2 and 3. Being the first thing you see when you open up Paramount+ certainly helps with that, but this still demonstrates there was a willingness to sample a Frasier revival. Where it holds remains to be seen, but chances are Paramount+ will not want to cancel something this high-profile after one season if they don’t have to. It starts off as a Likely Renew.
Also debuting at a Likely Renew is Special Ops: Lioness. This drama series is #20 on the Popular TV Shows list as of this writing, and has managed to make Nielsen’s streaming chart. Paramount+ should be able to make a second season of this show work; if they can’t, we can assume they’re in cost-saving mode. The show still appears three times on the home page over a month after its finale, which is a promising sign. One caveat is one of those appearances is from the ‘Trending Shows’ list, due to its viewership level.
Wolf Pack
Wolf Pack’s Season 1 finale was March 16, and there is still no word on if it will be returning for a second season. Viewership has not been strong for a while; it was #16 on the Popular TV Shows list in one Paramount+ R/C column, but has since fallen. At one point, Wolf Pack looked as dead as can be, ranked at #109 with zero appearances on the home page.
With Halloween right around the corner, Paramount+ has dedicated quite a few spaces on their home page to similar-themed shows. Wolf Pack has picked up two appearances on the home page, but the viewership is not getting any better; it is currently #111 on the Popular TV Shows list, very close to falling out of the Top 120 entirely. There is certainly some sign of hope around Wolf Pack given some love this Halloween season, showing that Paramount+ may very well still want to renew it. However, it’s hard to warrant a renewal prediction when viewership has seemingly stayed low. Plus, those home page appearances are likely to go down to zero come November. Wolf Pack is upgraded to Tilts Cancel in this column.
Rabbit Hole
Rabbit Hole is a tough show to predict. On one hand, it did rather well during its run. On the other, it’s now been over 5 months since the Season 1 finale, and it currently has a minimal presence on the home page. It makes its one appearance in the ‘Critically Acclaimed’ section, appearing right after to The Good Fight — a show that ended nearly a year ago.
However, it’s unclear why Rabbit Hole even appears in the Critically Acclaimed section. Critics gave it a 66 on Metacritic and 76% on Rotton Tomatoes; not bad, but not stellar by any means. It didn’t get nominated for any Emmys, something that would have easily qualified the show. Perhaps they are waiting to see if it gets any Oscar nods in January, but right now things are not looking as good as they once were. It gets downgraded to Leans Cancel in this edition.
Joe Pickett
Joe Pickett is doing solidly for Paramount+ right now, sitting at #27 as of this writing. It went as high as #2 in a previous edition. However, this is really no different than the trajectory iCarly had. Most importantly, Joe Pickett is barely even a Paramount+ original. It began its run as a Spectrum Original, who renewed it for a second season. Having original series only available to Spectrum Originals failed. Before Season 2 of Joe Pickett could air, Spectrum Originals had stopped airing new episodes of any series.
The second season of Joe Pickett started filming in July 2022, but wasn’t announced to be moving to Paramount+ until April 2023. Ordering a third season would be substantially more expensive for the streamer than Season 2 was, and, once again, Paramont+ is currently losing money for Paramount. It does currently have a modest presence on the home page, seen in the Originals section as well as the Popular Westerns section. This stops it from going below Leans Cancel.
Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head
Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head arguably deserves better than the treatment it’s getting right now. Like iCarly, it’s popular online. Also like iCarly, Paramount+ may not care. Perhaps the online presence isn’t translating to sign-ups, as the Beavis and Butt-Head revival’s two-season order has aired with no signs of a third season renewal. Right now, it’s barely hanging onto a spot in the Top 120, with just one appearance on the home page in the Originals section. Most concerning is there are other places on the home page where Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head would fit right in, but has been shut out. For example, it’s been shut out of the Halloween Costume Goals in favor of Jersey Shore: Family Vacation. It’s been shut out of the Comedy Shows section in favor of Comedy Central’s cartoon Drawn Together, which aired three seasons from 2004 to 2007 and a 2010 film panned for alleged antisemitism.
Even if Paramount+ were to consider renewing Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head, at this point it would be a while before they would be able to get a Season 3 on the air. With Seasons 1 and 2 slipping this far already, they may not consider it to be worth it. It gets downgraded to Leans Cancel this week, with a further downgrade held off because of name recognition and likely cost efficiency.
Fatal Attraction
Fatal Attraction arguably is the least likely show of this bunch to have a chance at renewal. Its one home page appearance is in the Critically Acclaimed section, but like Rabbit Hole, it has not been nominated for any major awards nor is it actually particularly acclaimed by critics. In fact, critics gave it a 47 on Metacritic and a 37% on Rotten Tomatoes. Without even being in the Top 120 Popular TV Shows, it seems unlikely that Fatal Attraction will return.
Mayor of Kingstown
Mayor of Kingstown was predicted as a Tilts Renew all season long, and was perhaps a rare case of an existing show actually benefitting from the WGA and SAG-AFRTRA strikes. It has remained popular, but star Jeremy Renner’s injuries were a cause to wonder just how likely it was that the show would be renewed. The strikes have likely bought more time for Jeremy Renner to make a full recovery, allowing Paramount+ to renew Mayor of Kingstown for a third season.
Big Nate
Big Nate is as much a Nickelodeon show as it as a Paramount+ show. Paramount+ seemingly hasn’t had a whole lot of luck with children’s originals. Unlike most streaming shows, the majority of shows aimed for kids that are branded as Paramount+ originals end up airing regularly on Nickelodeon. Big Nate joins the likes of the Rugrats revival, Transformers: EarthSpark, Star Trek: Prodigy, Kamp Koral: SpongeBob’s Under Years, and the ill-fated live-action The Fairly OddParents: Fairly Odder, the latter of which has since been pulled from streaming. In fact, since the launch of Paramount+, half the cartoons Nickelodeon premiered had started off as Paramount+ originals.
I could be wrong, but it might not really matter that Big Nate isn’t in Paramount+’s Top 120. It does just fine on Nickelodeon, which arguably will help it get a Season 3. Of note, Nickelodeon just finished airing the first season, so it remains to be seen how the new season will do on the rapidly-declining cable network. As long as it doesn’t decline more than any other show is, I would bet on a renewal. Since we don’t know if that will happen, it is predicted as Leans Renew.