NBC Renew/Cancel Week 2: Found Should Find a Home on NBC’s Schedule

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, two shows join the lineup, including new show Found. Keep reading for my updated predictions for some of the few scripted shows currently airing on NBC.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Found (0.37, 0.33-0.40)
The Irrational (0.31, 0.29-0.34)
Quantum Leap (0.30, 0.28-0.31)

Likely Renewal:

Certain Renewal:

Already Canceled/Final Season:
Magnum PI

Coming Soon: 
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Extended Family
La Brea
Law & Order
Law & Order: Organized Crime
Law & Order: SVU
Lopez vs Lopez
Night Court
Saturday Night Live
St. Denis Medical

Found: One of the only new scripted shows on broadcast this season, Found launched last week with a strong 0.40 debut. That's a very impressive result for a 10 PM show, even for one with a strong lead-in like The Voice. Week two expectedly saw a decline, as it dropped to a 0.33. That's a very renewable number, but it is going to need to stabilize in order to get that renewal. Another drop of an equal percentage will take it to a 0.27, which wouldn't be a terribly promising place to be in only the third week of the season. Still, shows tend to drop the most in their second week, so we may see stabilization relatively soon for Found. It's also notable that Found has out-rated both the first and second weeks of The Irrational. I find it unlikely that NBC would cancel both freshman scripted shows, so having an early edge in the ratings is a good place to be. In addition to its linear ratings, NBC has also boasted about Found's performance on Peacock, saying that Found is the network's top premiere for a new series on their streaming service since the service's launch. That might not end up meaning a lot in the end, but every little bit helps. It LEANS RENEWAL for now, but it's the safest scripted show on NBC of the three that they are currently airing.

The Irrational: The Irrational had a decent premiere, and its ratings have remained OK since then, dropping about 15% in week two before a slight recovery in week three. Its current 0.31 average isn't terribly impressive, but it's not very different from Quantum Leap's season one average in this slot, and that show obviously got renewed in the end. It's most likely surviving off of The Voice's lead-in, and probably isn't that strong on its own, but retaining enough of The Voice is really all it will likely take for a renewal. Its biggest concern is that NBC has a pretty packed lineup, with two full nights of Dick Wolf shows. It'll have to hold mostly steady in order to get that renewal. It is assisted by the fact that, like Found, NBC has highlighted The Irrational's streaming performance on Peacock. While these press releases often paint a rosier picture for shows than is realistic, it's always a good sign for a show when its network is praising its performance rather than ignoring it. It continues to LEAN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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