Predict The Sophomore Ratings 2022-23 Results: User Predictions vs Reality


In September, we asked for your predictions on how every broadcast show in its second season would rate in the Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day demo this season. Now that the season has come to a close, here is the average prediction, the actual average, and a short analysis. Let us know what you think by leaving a comment!

Abbott Elementary
Prediction: 0.48
Actual: 0.50

Abbott Elementary slightly over-performed the average prediction, being down 12% this season to a 0.50 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating. Despite having a weaker lead-in this season, it managed to tie The Conners for ABC’s highest-rated scripted series this season in that demo. ABC clearly has faith in it as a performer in that demo, as it is the only show that are repeating on their upcoming fall schedule dominated by unscripted series. Abbott Elementary was arguably a tough show to predict, as it moved to a new night in its second season. There was also the factor of predicting what role, if any, its success in streaming and awards love would have on the ratings. 

All American: Homecoming
Prediction: 0.09
Actual: 0.11

All American: Homecoming was one of just three scripted series on The CW to average above a 0.10 Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 rating this season. So far, the only scripted series The CW has renewed are the other two series that matched that feat: All American (0.13) and Walker (0.11). While All American: Homecoming may very well end up canceled, being down 4% year-to-year and being tied for the second-highest-rated series on the network is a noteworthy feat. The average prediction of 0.09 is in line with a more common year-to-year drop. 

American Auto
Prediction: 0.33
Actual: 0.27

American Auto was down 26% year-to-year in the Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day demo this season, despite airing most of its episodes after new episodes of Night Court. Its 0.27 average comes in well below the average prediction. Still, NBC may end up renewing the series for a third season, depending on factors related to the strike and overall schedule space. However, that is not the outcome we are predicting for a show that averaged in line with two of the three Friday sitcoms. 

CSI: Vegas
Prediction: 0.31
Actual: 0.29

Far and away CBS’s lowest-rated fall scripted series, CSI: Vegas underperformed the average prediction by 0.02 in Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day. This was not a good year for CSI: Vegas ratings-wise, but ironically a solid year for the CSI franchise in general. With CSI: Vegas’s third season renewal, there is an increasing chance that another CSI series will make it to syndication. 

FBI: International
Prediction: 0.51
Reality: 0.41

The average prediction for FBI: International was pretty far off from reality. In fact, the 0.51 prediction matched the actual average rating of the original FBI, a much higher-rated show than FBI: International. The FBI franchise took a hit in general this year, with each show losing between 21 and 25% of its Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 audience from the previous season. 

Prediction: 0.54
Reality: 0.56

Ghosts had a standout season in its second season, becoming one of CBS’s top series in both live and multi-platform delayed viewing. Its 0.56 average in Live + Same Day was higher than all comedies on broadcast sans its lead-in, Young Sheldon. The average prediction was only slightly off in this case, being pessimistic by 0.02.

Grand Crew
Prediction: 0.24
Reality: 0.17

Grand Crew was NBC’s lowest-rated scripted renewal in its first season, and never truly got a chance in its second with the Friday at 8:30 pm time slot. Grand Crew managed to look low-rated even on a network that had a historically bad year with veteran comedies. It went as low as a 0.13 this season, a rating that a handful of CW shows hit at one point or another. This prediction was too optimistic by 0.07, and more in the ballpark of how previous time slot occupant Young Rock performed. 

La Brea
Prediction: 0.48
Reality: 0.31

La Brea lost 46% of its Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 audience in its second season, leaving this average prediction very optimistic. It hit a 0.49 for the season premiere, but all subsequent episodes were below the 0.48 prediction; one going as low as a 0.18. Ultimately, La Brea performed in the range of the other non-Dick Wolf NBC dramas. 

NCIS: Hawai’i
Prediction: 0.35
Reality: 0.35

NCIS: Hawai’i had a rough season, but in this case this prediction matches up with reality. Down 33% from Season 1, it was CBS’s third-lowest-rated show this season. It was slightly out-rated by NCIS: Los Angeles, which CBS canceled. 

The Cleaning Lady
Prediction: 0.42
Reality: 0.31

The Cleaning Lady rated far below the 0.42 prediction, essentially seeing no ratings boost from having 9-1-1 as a lead-in in its second season. In fact, the closest it ever got to the 0.42 prediction was a 0.37 in October. It will go down as FOX’s lowest-rated drama renewal in Live + Same Day Adults 18-49. 

Welcome To Flatch
Prediction: 0.12
Reality: 0.22

Welcome To Flatch averaged a 0.22 Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 rating in Season 2, although that average is a bit deceiving. It only matched or exceeded that 0.22 average twice: once in January and once in the Sunday at 8 time slot after the NFL in November, where it had 29% retention. To its credit, Welcome To Flatch never came super close to the prediction, bottoming out at a 0.16. 

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