Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies (0.12, 0.09-0.15)
Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (0.23, 0.17-0.28)
RJ Decker (0.18, 0.13-0.23)
Likely Renewal:
Celebrity Jeopardy! (0.31, 0.28-0.32)
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)
The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)
Shark Tank (0.17, 0.11-0.24)
Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)
Certain Renewal:
20/20 (0.20, 0.12-0.32)
American Idol (0.44, 0.36-0.62)
America's Funniest Home Videos (0.35, 0.24-0.57)
Scrubs (0.47, 0.39-0.66)
Already Renewed:
9-1-1
9-1-1: Nashville
Abbott Elementary
Dancing with the Stars
Grey's Anatomy
High Potential
The Rookie
Will Trent
Already Canceled/Ending:
Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)
The Greatest Average American: One of the tougher bubble shows to predict this season has been The Greatest Average American, a midseason game show that hasn't lit been a hit, but hasn't been an outright flop, either.
On premiere night, The Greatest Average American looked well below average. With a 0.27 behind a 0.55 from Scrubs, the show debuted with sub-50% retention of the best lead-in it would ever get. It was far from an encouraging showing, and I was concerned about its ratings trajectory once ABC swapped out Scrubs' 0.55 for the mid-0.3s of regular time slot occupant Abbott Elementary. The next week, Abbott returned to a 0.40. While a very strong showing, it's still a tenth and a half lower than Scrubs, but Greatest Average American rose a tick to a 0.28. While retention is still just OK, it was a very encouraging sign.
In the ensuing weeks, The Greatest Average American dipped below the 0.20 mark a few times. Its series low wound up being 0.17 - just a notch above The Golden Bachelor's series low. It established itself as just an OK performer this season, the sort of show that ABC could either bring back or move on from without raising an eyebrow. Either decision would be justified based on the data we have, so it's hard to get a gauge on what they'll actually do.
I lean towards believing it'll be renewed. Its 0.23 average is right in line with what Celebrity Wheel of Fortune did in an 8 PM slot on Friday nights. It's also pretty much on par with what Celebrity Jeopardy did in this slot the year before. While it doesn't carry the pedigree of either of those spinoffs of classic game shows that've run for half a century or more, ABC has indicated that this is renewable territory for affordable filler game shows. I doubt Greatest Average American earns an 8 PM slot like those two shows did, but there's room for it somewhere on the schedule.
It's also worth noting that the show seems to have helped its lead-out, Shark Tank, in the later half of its season. Shark Tank struggled tremendously behind The Golden Bachelor, dipping to a 0.11 on multiple occasions. While still not reaching the heights off its Friday episodes, Shark Tank had two of its highest performances behind The Greatest Average American, indicating that this is at least a semi-compatible duo. If ABC doesn't plan on airing scripted in the Wednesday at 9 hour next season, they know this show can help keep them afloat for eight weeks or so, and deliver fairly average results.
The Greatest Average American rated right in the middle of ABC's unscripted pack this season, and above both Grey's Anatomy and RJ Decker. Obviously, those two dramas add on more viewers in delayed viewing than this casually-viewed game show, but linear ratings are still a critical metric for these filler reality shows, because it's where their real strength lies. The Greatest Average American helped keep ABC afloat on Wednesdays this spring, even if it wasn't competitive with the stronger offerings on CBS or NBC in the same hour. ABC doesn't necessarily need it, but it did decently enough for them to keep it around for another season. It leans renewal.
Celebrity Jeopardy!: Speaking of midseason game shows, one that's flown entirely under the radar in the ABC Renew/Cancel is Celebrity Jeopardy. Its ratings this season have been impressive, both in originals and in repeats. It's only aired four episodes since it debuted in mid-March, but it's been quite stable, debuting to a 0.32 in the key demo and recently drawing a 0.28 after a two-week break. Its current 0.31 average is up 17% from last season, and also stronger than Celebrity Wheel of Fortune in the same slot earlier this season. It remains to be seen how it'll perform when ABC airs its last four episodes over the course of one calendar week, but the weekly ratings have impressed so far. It's consistently the top-rated broadcast show on Friday nights, and it's helped ABC refresh a tired Friday lineup. It would be a big surprise to not see it (and Celebrity Wheel of Fortune) return next season with similar scheduling. It's a likely renewal.
Dancing with the Stars: It's no surprise that broadcast TV's highest-rated show has now been confirmed to be returning next season. While everyone was operating under the assumption its was a done deal (particularly with a spinoff to find the next pro dancer coming this summer) , ABC hadn't officially confirmed it until last week. They announced the first two cast members for next season, officially settling the matter. It's the most deserved renewal of the season, and, of course, a correct prediction.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | American Idol | The Rookie | ||||||
| Tues | Will Trent | RJ Decker | High Potential (R) | |||||
| Wed | Scrubs | Abbott Elementary | The Greatest Average American | Shark Tank | ||||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||||
| Fri | Celebrity Jeopardy! | 20/20 | ||||||
| Sat | NBA Saturday Primetime | |||||||
| Sun | America's Funniest Home Videos | Celebrity Jeopardy! (R) | Betrayal: Secrets & Lies | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
