ABC Renew/Cancel Week 6: 9-1-1, We Have a Problem

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, ABC's Thursday night 9-1-1 franchise takes the spotlight, as ABC's first release of multiplatform date for the season makes it clear just how well they stack up compared to other ABC offerings.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.20, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Shifting Gears (0.35, 0.31-0.38)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.32, 0.30-0.33)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.26, 0.23-0.29)

Abbott Elementary (0.32, 0.27-0.38)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.28, 0.27-0.31)

Grey's Anatomy (0.23, 0.18-0.27)

Shark Tank (0.18, 0.13-0.20)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.19, 0.16-0.20)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.27, 0.25-0.29)

Dancing with the Stars (1.20, 1.02-1.38)

High Potential (0.35, 0.32-0.42)

Coming Soon:

American Idol

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

The Great Christmas Light Fight

RJ Decker

The Rookie

Scrubs

Will Trent

9-1-1: While it's still one of ABC's highest-rated shows, it's been a fairly underwhelming start to the season for 9-1-1. Things did improve in week two, but it premiered to a series low of 0.30 in the key demo, and has averaged a 0.32 since. ABC's Wednesday comedy hour at 8 has rated better than it for the last two weeks, and it's currently #4 among ABC's scripted series, out of only six airing in the fall. It's down about 30% year-to-year, marking the worst year-to-year drop of any show on ABC. ABC could surely do worse than 9-1-1's ratings, but it's also not looking like the ratings titan it once was. Its slippage is apparent elsewhere, too. Its premiere drew a 1.51 in multiplatform ratings in the first seven days after it aired, a sizable drop from its 2024 premiere, which it scored a 1.95. Much like in L+SD ratings, 9-1-1 was ABC's #4 premiere in MP+7 ratings, falling behind Grey's Anatomy and tying its own spinoff, 9-1-1: Nashville. That's not to say that a 1.5 in MP+7 is clear cancellation territory. While MP+7 data isn't reliably reported, that data we've gotten in the last year indicates that a 1.5 is a fine performance in this metric. However, it's weak by 9-1-1's standards, and it brings me back to a key question: how much longer can this show continue? It's already in season nine, and a tenth season isn't in much doubt. But it is in decline, as evidenced by its underwhelming ratings across the board this season. ABC still sees value in it as a franchise, hence why they just debuted a new spinoff. There's good reason to that, even in a time when its live ratings are just average. Its ratings are just one way for it to make Disney and ABC money, as it's also sold to many international markets and airs in syndication. That's likely going to be enough to keep it going for next year at least, but it is possible that 9-1-1: Nashville, if it remains successful enough, could eventually be a replacement for it rather than a schedule companion. I don't think we're all that close to 9-1-1's exit from the airwaves, but I do have a hard time envisioning a Grey's Anatomy or SVU-esque run for this show. While its ratings have faltered a notable amount this season, it remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

9-1-1: Nashville: Much of what I said about 9-1-1 applies to Nashville. It ranks towards the bottom of fall ABC's scripted shows in both L+SD and MP+7, but is still doing fairly well from what we know. It matched 9-1-1 in the MP+7 ratings for the premiere, resulting in a decent but unspectacular sampling for the show. It was always unlikely that a 9-1-1 spinoff would appeal to many who aren't already watching 9-1-1, so it's hard to expect it to draw in higher ratings than 9-1-1. That it matched its premiere rating exactly in MP+7 is promising. How it holds up will be the key here. Doctor Odyssey had a strong premiere in both linear ratings and in multiplatform and completely collapsed as time went on, ending its run as ABC's lowest-rated show across the board. I have no doubt that ABC wants to renew 9-1-1: Nashville, and it's doing well enough so far that I don't have much doubt that they will a this point. But it did have a pretty harsh week two drop, so it's not illogical to have some concerns about this show's longevity. I think a save-face renewal is still very likely even if it does drop off significantly, considering how close Doctor Odyssey seemingly was to a renewal (to this day, they refuse to outright cancel it, even though it's obviously not returning). ABC isn't going to want to let go of their first 9-1-1 spinoff without giving it every opportunity for success that they can. However, a two-and-done run isn't out of the question if it's complete dead weight. A positive sign for it this week is that it rebounded a bit in week three, even as both SVU and Matlock rose. That seems to indicate that the show isn't bound to immediately drop to Doctor Odyssey levels, and will remain an improvement on the slot from last year. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	Monday Night Football
Tues	Dancing with the Stars			High Potential
Wed	Shifting Gears	Abbott Elementary	The Golden Bachelor	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	Saturday Night Football
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney