Prediction Key:
Week 2 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis |
Matlock: Perhaps the surprise of the season is the sudden, unexpected collapse of one of last season's surprise hits, Matlock. CBS was all-in on season two, giving it the only post-NFL debut of any of their fall shows outside of the regularly-scheduled Tracker (Elsbeth also aired that night, though a further hour removed from the NFL lead-in), and giving it its fair share of promotion. None of that was enough to stop it from utterly cratering. Discounting that NFL-boosted 0.51 premiere, as post-NFL ratings almost never reflect a show's genuine audience (Tracker is one reasonable exception here - it's a huge hit with similar ratings whether it airs on an NFL night or not), this is a show that went off the air with a 0.48 rating, at the time a series high. It had dropped a good deal lower than that before, but it was still clearly a hit, and it was usually good for at least a solid 0.3, if not a rounded 0.4. It was never a ratings liability. Come the day of its time slot premiere, this show only manages a 0.18. It was the lowest-rated 9 PM show of CBS premiere week, and shed over 60% of its demo rating. It was also meaningfully down in viewers. It had never dropped below 5.6 million viewers before, and returned with just 4.2 million viewers. The time slot premiere was down two million viewers from its season one average, a 33% decline. This is a disaster. However, it's not getting downgraded just yet. It's very possible that it could be in the future, but the most important factor here is how it streams on Paramount+, especially with Skydance emphasizing the importance of the streamer. It was one of CBS's most-watched shows in multiplatform ratings last season, only rating behind Tracker there. It was a huge hit for them last season (far exceeding its relatively average linear ratings), and it's getting the benefit of the doubt for now. If it looks middling in mutliplattform as well, it'll find itself quickly downgraded. But it appears to be performing well on Paramount+ right now, if their daily top ten chart is any indication, and that's really all we have to work with right now. It remains a certain renewal, albeit one that could quickly disintegrate.
Elsbeth: Elsbeth is in a fairly similar boat to Matlock, in that its collapse wasn't telegraphed by its performance late last season (in fact, it nearly hit a series high at the end of the season) and it was pretty stable throughout the season. It ended up returning more than a tenth below its season average, and 30% lower than its previous low, which aired in late December behind a Christmas special. It's in a different situation that Matlock in that unlike Matlock, Elsbeth had always been - at best - a middling ratings performer. While its ratings were OK for 10 PM, it was among CBS's lowest-rated series in same-day ratings. Its survival was always due to its strong delayed ratings, with the show having more MP+35 viewers than NCIS, Ghosts, or Survivor - all shows that far exceed Elsbeth's linear ratings. It's why returning with a pitiful 0.14 rating, while embarrassing, is not an immediate death warrant for Elsbeth. Its strength is not in first-run ratings, and it has thus far been able to survive lower linear ratings thanks to strong delayed ratings. That's not to say that it's guaranteed to hold up in delayed ratings this season, but it is saying that - like Matlock - being one of CBS's highest-rated multiplatform performers last season is enough for it to get the benefit of the doubt. It remains a likely renewal for now.
Sheriff Country: It was a mixed debut for Sheriff Country. The Fire Country spinoff crossed over with its parent show on premiere night, and aired at a special time of 9 PM. The show managed to grow from Fire Country by about 250,000 viewers, but shed 27% of its lead-in despite the two episodes being connected. We've seen spinoffs perform much worse than that, and it's certainly not a total bomb, but this is probably not what CBS was hoping to see if they truly want to make "Country" their next big brand. Sheriff Country is thus far looking like a middling player, ranking eleventh out of the fifteen CBS scripted premieres last week. Despite that, it still looks pretty safe. As I said, CBS sure seems to want to make a Country franchise work. Sheriff Country's linear ratings, while underwhelming, are not a dealbreaker thus far, which makes me doubt that this will be an obstacle to CBS's longterm goal of franchise success. It's also doing reasonably well on Paramount+ so far, peaking at #2 this week and beating its parent show (ratings for that second episode are not yet available), which makes it one of the best-performing CBS series on Paramount+ this week. CBS has been fairly rigid in their decision-making in recent years, canceling shows that were still doing reasonably well just because they were no longer in the plans and renewing some of their more middling performers because they seemed fond of them. Sheriff Country has long been in development and is a clear top priority of CBS, and it will take more than a middling debut to put it in much danger of cancellation. It's a likely renewal.
Boston Blue: It was a pretty good week to be Boston Blue. Its premiere ratings were entirely unexciting, but with a 0.23 in the key demo, it was easily CBS's highest-rated scripted show at 10 PM in premiere week. That's a damning indictment of just how low ratings have gotten across the board, but it's still pretty good for Boston Blue, especially given that it grew from its lead-in, something none of the other 10 PM shows even came close to doing. Blue Bloods' series low was 0.22, so it also managed to at least premiere higher than that. It also slightly beat Blue Bloods' series low in viewership, and grew from Sheriff County by 300,000 viewers. All of that adds up to make its OK premiere rating look much better in comparison. While Blue Bloods was a long-running success for CBS, it was far from its heyday by the time it went off the air, and first-run ratings expectations for Boston Blue weren't that high to begin with. It pretty much matched them, which is especially impressive when you consider just how poorly pretty much everything else on CBS premiered. But none of that was the biggest boon for Boston Blue's renewal chances this week. The show was sold into over 100 markets across the globe this week, instantly helping to make the show more profitable and lucrative for CBS, and helping its renewal odds soar. With the show already selling well internationally, there's little doubt that CBS will be keeping it around beyond this season. Sheriff Country doing only OK also works in its favor, making it even more unlikely that a show that has already sold into so many territories will be axed to make room for a fairly untested franchise. It's upgraded this week to a likely renewal, with another upgrade very possible once multiplatform ratings come in. Blue Bloods had been fading in the ratings towards the end of its run and rated towards the middle of the CBS pack during its final season. If this spinoff can't at least hold up well compared to Blue Bloods' middle-of-the-road showing, it could find itself in a bit of trouble, but that feels unlikely.
The Road: We've come to the end of the road. The Road capped a terrible premier week for CBS with just a 0.16 rating for its premiere, retaining just 36% of its Tracker lead-in and dropping nearly five million viewers from it in just the premiere. It was down to a 0.12 in the demo by its third and final half-hour, after having started with a 0.20. It's pretty clear that there's just no interest in this show, and even though it's not very compatible with Tracker, this is one of the worst premiere performances we've seen in a while. It's just not an excusable performance, even if it is likely much cheaper than scripted shows drawing similar linear ratings. Its delayed ratings are surely much lower, as there was seemingly zero interest in this show on Paramount+, and reality shows on CBS always see lower gains in delayed viewing. This was Taylor Sheridan's first series for CBS, with the Yellowstone creators executive producing this reality series alongside Blake Shelton. While Sheridan is sure to remain an important creative for Paramount+ and likely CBS, this makes it clear that his name alone won't be enough to make a show a hit. This show is a complete misfire for Sheridan and CBS, and a renewal is hard to imagine. It's downgraded this week to a likely cancellation.
DMV: This is as much of a toss-up as any show on CBS. It linear ratings are passable, but nothing spectacular, dropping this week to a 0.26 in the demo. It's now barely above Poppa's House's series low, and it's pretty clear that it's no stronger than that show. It's seemingly pretty cheap, but that alone won't be enough for CBS to go out of their way to renew it. It's going to have to hope it can achieve solid gains in mulitplatform, something Poppa's House failed to do. The Neighborhood ending could be a blessing and a curse for it. CBS feels unlikely to order two new comedies, but if they like enough dramas, they could absolutely cut a comedy hour again. That would completely doom DMV. It's very early into its run, but DMV is certainly looking vulnerable, but currently is slightly on the right side of the bubble. It leans renewal.
NCIS: Origins and NCIS: Sydney: These two shows continued to struggle this week, with Origins inching closer to its series low despite its time slot upgrade from last season. Origins and Sydney are several of the under-performing spinoffs on CBS this year, which is bound to happen as the network doubles down on spinning off as many shows as they can. Both have always been middling (at best) first-run ratings performers, and that hasn't changed this year, despite the creation of an all-NCIS night. Sydney managed to look slightly better this week, ticking up slightly as Origins dropped, but it remains a clear weak link. Origins didn't drop massively, but it didn't have much room to drop to begin with before it began looking like a true eyesore. It was a solid multiplatform performer last season, so it remains in a renewal column, but it was weaker in the metric than other low-rated shows like Matlock and Elsbeth, and it hasn't enjoyed the international sales of Boston Blue, so it's not completely safe. We'll know a bit more here when CBS reports multiplatform ratings. With little changing this week, Origins remains a leans renewal prediction, and Sydney remains a leans cancellation prediction.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||
