ABC's Thursday lineup has now debuted, and with it, ABC has rolled out their entire fall schedule. Keep reading to see where my initial predictions for ABC's one and only fully-scripted night of fall programming.
Certain Cancellation: N/A
Likely Cancellation: The Golden Bachelor (0.21, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation: N/A
Leans Renewal: Shifting Gears (0.33, 0.31-0.35)
Likely Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.30)
9-1-1: Nashville (0.29)
Abbott Elementary (0.18, 0.27-0.29)
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.29, 0.27-0.31)
Grey's Anatomy (0.27)
Shark Tank (0.17, 0.13-0.20)
Certain Renewal:
20/20 (0.20)
America's Funniest Home Videos (0.26)
Dancing with the Stars (1.14, 1.02-1.26)
High Potential (0.36, 0.32-0.42)
Coming Soon:
American Idol
The Bachelorette
Celebrity Jeopardy!
The Great Christmas Light Fight
RJ Decker
The Rookie
Scrubs
Will Trent
9-1-1: Nashville: Last week, ABC debuted their one and only fall freshman series - a spinoff of one of their most popular series, 9-1-1. This edition, set in Nashville, assumed the slot of a different Ryan Murphy show, the (presumably, as they refuse to officially cancel it) one-and-done disaster Doctor Odyssey. Doctor Odyssey is a show that premiered well and utterly cratered after that, slipping almost 50% by its fifth episode, indicating little compatibility with 9-1-1. ABC is surely hoping that being a part of the same franchise will be enough for 9-1-1: Nashville to hold up better and retain a more sizable portion of 9-1-1. Out of the starting gate, it looks like a good bet. 9-1-1 returned to "just" a 0.30 in the demo, and 9-1-1: Nashville debuted with a 0.29, losing just a single hundredth from its lead-in. It's also beat 9-1-1 on Hulu consistently since its debut, holding strong at #1 for the three days since its debut. It's obviously too early to be certain about anything, but this is a promising start. Retaining 97% of 9-1-1 is better than anything Doctor Odyssey ever accomplished (its best showing was holding 85% of 9-1-1 on premiere night), and it's also performing better on Hulu than Doctor Odyssey at the start of its run (though Odyssey did look solid on Hulu as well at the beginning). 0.29 isn't a very exciting rating, and it's lower than we've seen for High Potential and Shifting Gears, but it's hard to expect much better for it when its lead-in was only getting a 0.30. This show was always going to ride the coattails of 9-1-1, and it's doing that as well as can reasonably be expected so far. ABC sure seems committed to it, too. They aired a repeat of its pilot in place of Celebrity Wheel of Fortune on Friday, and will preempt Shark Tank for a repeat on Wednesday, too. They repeated Doctor Odyssey (and High Potential) too, so this doesn't mean it's a lock (especially this early), but it's a promising sign. They're willing to preempt their regularly-scheduled programming just to give this show a chance to grab some more eyeballs before its second episode debuts. I can't recall a time when such a strategy actually led to those repeat viewers tuning in in droves and causing a second week spike, but it can't hurt. With ABC making this show the center of their fall promotional campaign, and it delivering well enough, it looks pretty safe so far. This show would have to absolutely collapse in order to be in true danger of cancellation. Doctor Odyssey did, and they seemed to have a pretty tough time even cancelling that. I think ABC's first attempt at a 9-1-1 spin-off is going to be given grace, even if it doesn't hold up well from here. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
9-1-1: Last week was a good week for 9-1-1: Nashville, which debuted in solid shape after a persistent promotional campaign. It was not a good week for 9-1-1. Yes, the premiere rating for 9-1-1 was ever-so-slightly higher, but so were the expectations. 9-1-1 has been one of the highest-rated shows on TV throughout its run, and it ended its previous season with a 0.39 in the demo, having been in the 0.4 range for the entirety of its spring 2025 run. It returned with an outright series low, drawing a 0.30. That is still enough to be one of the highest-rated scripted shows on TV at this point, but it's disappointing compared to its own previous performances. It received a strong promo push, so ABC did what they could to make people aware of its return, but it's simply cooled off a bit, and it's showing its age. It's still likely doing well enough to keep going beyond this season, especially since ABC clearly values the 9-1-1 franchise and their relationship with Ryan Murphy. However, this is an expensive show with a large cast, which got it canceled by Fox to begin with. ABC has far more to gain by keeping it going - they do own it, after all - but it does have to remain profitable. If it slides in multiplatform ratings in the way that it's dropped in the linear ratings, then ABC may have a problem on its hand here, and they may have to think about the end. For now, though, the underwhelming return is not going to be enough to put 9-1-1 in much jeopardy. It has value to ABC far beyond its first-run ratings. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL, out of an abundance of caution at this very early point in its ninth season.
Interactive Schedule:
The TV Ratings Guide
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
Mon
Monday Night Football
Tues
Dancing with the Stars
High Potential
Wed
Shifting Gears
Abbott Elementary
The Golden Bachelor
Shark Tank
Thurs
9-1-1
9-1-1: Nashville
Grey's Anatomy
Fri
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune
20/20
Sat
Saturday Night Football
Sun
The Wonderful World of Disney
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
