NBC Renew/Cancel Week 2: Law & Order Found Guilty of Declining Ratings

Two more shows join the NBC Renew/Cancel fray this week, as the Thursday night Law & Order duo debuted new seasons last week, and will receive sentencing in this, the first Renew/Cancel since their premieres.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:

Brilliant Minds (0.16, 0.15-0.16)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.23)

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order: SVU (0.28)
The Voice (0.37, 0.31-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
N/A

Coming Soon:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Dateline NBC
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon
Saturday Night Live
St. Denis Medical
Stumble
Surviving Earth

Law & Order: Last week, Law & Order stumbled to a new series low out of the starting gate, drawing just a 0.23. Considering where its previous season left off (a series low-tying 0.25), it's not too surprising to see it opening its season heavily down from last year's strong 0.36 premiere, but it's still disappointing. It is worth noting that Law & Order is far from the only disappointing performance on NBC as of late. All of last year's new shows bombed, The Voice collapsed (and hasn't recovered nearly enough this season to look like anything other than a shell of its former self), and even SVU returned at nearly a series low. Things are bad at NBC right now, and it remains to be seen whether Law & Order will be anywhere near the top of their priority list when they're looking at improvements they need to make next season. At the very least, the 10 PM slots on both Monday and Thursday will need to be dealt with before Law & Order, and that'll probably buy Law & Order another season. The 8 PM time slot does help to make Law & Order look a bit stronger than it really is, as it has the local lead-in to help boost it. If it were airing at 10 PM, it probably wouldn't look a significant amount stronger than Brilliant Minds. However, I do think that it is stronger than Brilliant Minds, and it being a Dick Wolf production is a further boost for its renewal odds. NBC does seem to still be committed to having a Law & Order night, going so far as to air Peacock's season of Organized Crime this fall, which will likely draw the same ratings that The Hunting Party would've had in that slot if it hadn't been delayed. That is another thing boding very well for Law & Order's short-term future. That being said, this return has further solidified my long-held, long-stated belief that Law & Order is going to be the first of NBC's current Dick Wolf series to leave the airwaves. Even though SVU also returned in poor shape, Law & Order is still the weakest link here. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it were to end next season, as NBC is desperate need of a shakeup. 10 PM is a terrible slot to launch a new series, and as of now, those are the only slots actually open. If they want to turn things around, Law & Order's 8 PM slot sure does look like a nice place to launch a new show. I think a move to 10 PM is more likely than just being outright canceled, but Law & Order is quickly becoming something of a problem for NBC, and they're going to have to try and fix it. A 0.23 premiere for an 8 PM show in the fall is just not good. While I fully expect it to be back next year, it debuts in the LEANS RENEWAL category, as its current ratings don't warrant a more confident prediction. It has another twenty weeks or so to get an upgrade, and it most likely will get one.

Law & Order: SVU: I've long said that I think SVU will go on as long as Dick Wolf and Mariska Hargitay want. I still do believe this. After all, SVU is worth so much more to NBC than just its first-run ratings. However, its first-run ratings are definitely looking a bit less valuable right now. SVU returned with just a 0.28 in the key demo, down 30% year-to-year and even below most of its late spring airings. Just once before has SVU rated this poorly, and it was a surprisingly weak return for a longtime juggernaut. It was, at least, an improvement on its Law & Order lead-in, but NBC has to be a bit underwhelmed by this return. Their Thursday lineup, once a reliably strong night for them, is now struggling to even draw average ratings. SVU is the only show in the lineup that was able to even match the season's projected league average across the four major networks (0.28). Any further declines, and SVU's going to look like just another below-average performer on NBC. The upside for it is that it's still likely to be among NBC's highest-rated shows this season. Only the Chicagos and The Voice will likely out-rate it this season, and it's also the network's best performer on Peacock. All of that, plus its syndication and international deals, adds up to SVU still being pretty safe, in spite of its weak return in linear ratings. NBC surely won't cancel it without advanced notice, given its value to NBCUniversal, but its age and related expenses could catch up to it a bit sooner than I'd expected if it continues to draw mediocre ratings on linear TV. It's very likely safe regardless this year, and it probably has several more years behind it too, but these ratings are the first major cause for concern for this show in many years. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	9:00	10:00
Mon	The Voice		Brilliant Minds
Tues	The Voice		On Brand with Jimmy Fallon
Wed	Chicago Med	Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order	Law & Order: SVU	Law & Order: Organized Crime
Fri	On Brand with Jimmy Fallon	Dateline NBC
Sat	College Football on NBC
Sun	Sunday Night Football