This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I analyze a show that's flown under the radar this season despite being one of NBC's highest-rated shows. Plus, an update on a show I discussed last week after a promising new datapoint for the series.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.15, 0.12-0.18)
Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.15-0.22)
Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.21, 0.20-0.23)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order: SVU (0.26, 0.21-0.30)
The Voice (0.35, 0.31-0.42)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.35, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Saturday Night Live (0.65, 0.58-0.70)
Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
St. Denis Medical
Stumble
Surviving Earth
Chicago PD: I've long touted it as the safest of the Chicagos, but this season, PD has taken a worse hit than its fellow Chicago series. All three have hit new series lows this year, but PD has dropped the lowest, down to a 0.25. On premiere night, it was just two hundredths behind Med. Last week, while all of the Chicagos rebounded from poor showings in week two, PD was unable to get out of the 0.2x range, while both Med and Fire were able to reach rounded 0.4s. It's an underwhelming start to the season for one of the strongest 10 PM shows, but not a terribly concerning one. Even with its lower ratings, PD trails only High Potential among 10 PM series, and that show has a lead-in that is so clearly the #1 show on TV that it nearly doubles the ratings of the #2 show. PD is still a strong show for NBC, and the best-performing Chicago on Peacock. It was NBC's #2 show last season in total viewers, trailing only Chicago Fire. Beyond that, its clearest value to NBC is as a syndication powerhouse. It and Chicago Fire both air in syndication on MyNetworkTV (Dateline and SVU do as well, with veteran NBC hits making up their entire fall lineup), and PD is also syndicated on the USA Network and other cable and syndication networks. It's one of the most successful current broadcast shows in syndication, and is one of the most recent broadcast premieres to achieve such widespread syndicated success. That all adds up, and helps make PD one of NBC's most valuable programs. A small ratings decline is excusable when the show continues to bring in revenue in other ways. Below-average results and above-average drops from its lead-in won't be enough to bring this show down. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Law & Order: SVU: Credit where it's due: after an incredibly concerning datapoint the week before, SVU rebounded in a big way last week, hitting a season high. While that 0.30 in the 18-49 demo is still underwhelming when you compare it to how SVU was rating at the end of last season, most of broadcast has returned on the lower end this season. 0.30 is right in line with the average rating for a broadcast show this season, and there are several NBC shows that can't even get within a tenth of that. It handily defeated its time slot rivals, 9-1-1: Nashville and Matlock, despite Nashville rating nearly a tenth before it just the week before and Matlock beating it last season on a semi-consistent basis. NBC has worse concerns than a show drawing league average ratings and winning its time slot. It's also far stronger than its lead-in, Law & Order, which should easily be on the chopping block before SVU. I'm avoiding a prediction upgrade for now due to its high production costs and early ratings instability, but there isn't much of a reason to believe this ratings decline will be enough to put the kibosh on SVU. It's gone through plenty of rough periods in the past and survived those, and it'll survive this. I expect an upgrade for it as soon as we get some substantive multiplatform data that confirms it's still performing well in delayed viewing, as it was NBC's top show in the demo last season (and their #4 show in total viewers). For now, it's on the high end of a LIKELY RENEWAL prediction.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||||
| Tues | NBA on NBC | |||||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Law & Order: Organized Crime | |||
| Fri | On Brand with Jimmy Fallon | Dateline NBC | ||||
| Sat | College Football on NBC | |||||
| Sun | Sunday Night Football | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
