NBC Renew/Cancel Week 15: Law & Order: Organized Chaos + One Shining Moment for Law & Order: SVU or Magnum PI as NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness Concludes

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I take a closer look at the only drama with its fate still hanging in the balance, withs its odds continuing to take a downturn as May approaches. Plus, the results of the championship game of the NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Lopez vs Lopez (0.25, 0.21-0.29)

Leans Cancellation:
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.36, 0.27-0.46)

Leans Renewal:
Extended Family (0.28, 0.22-0.71)

Likely Renewal:
Night Court (0.33, 0.28-0.46)

Certain Renewal:
Saturday Night Live (0.72, 0.60-0.96)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
La Brea (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Magnum PI (0.26, 0.21-0.32)
Quantum Leap (0.25, 0.18-0.32)

Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.51, 0.42-0.63)
Chicago Med (0.50, 0.44-0.62)
Chicago PD (0.48, 0.43-0.57)
Found (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
The Irrational (0.27, 0.19-0.34)
Law & Order (0.39, 0.28-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.49, 0.33-0.62)

Law & Order: Organized Crime: Last week, the Law & Order block returned from a few weeks off and saw its ratings again diminish, getting utterly steamrolled by ABC and also losing to CBS. While Organized Crime managed to keep it the closest of the three L&O shows (it only trailed Elsbeth and Station by a single hundredth, while the other shows were defeated by wider margins), last week highlighted a major problem for the block: it's not a particularly strong lineup. SVU is usually a very strong show, but it's slipped since Grey's returned in strengthened form, and Law & Order is putting up poor numbers for an 8 PM anchor. Organized Crime was previously looking very solid for a 10 PM series, but the last three weeks have all been sub-0.30. Simply put, I'm not sure the Law & Order shows are putting up ratings that justify a full night devoted to the franchise, and Organized Crime has plenty of other things stacked against it that put it far behind SVU and even behind the original L&O. For one, it's been a creative headache for NBC, with a rotating carousel of show runners since it began. Its multiplatform ratings also trail the top four Wolf series on NBC, and it rarely shows up as a popular title on Peacock. Despite that, there are rumors that the show could be moving to Peacock next season. It's hard to tell if there's any legitimacy to that, but, nevertheless, it's looking increasingly unlikely that this show will be joining its fellow Law & Orders on NBC's lineup next season. I've been pessimistic about its renewal odds since its short pickup last year, and I'm ready to pull the trigger on an outright cancellation prediction now. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

The Second Annual NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness Concludes!

After four weeks of voting, we have finally named our champion! Before we find out who won, though, let's take a look at  the road both shows took to get here.

Law & Order: SVU, the #4 seed and higher-seeded of the two finalists, started out its run by absolute pummeling Extended Family. Its 94% in that round is the highest vote share we saw at any stage in the voting, and its 554 votes was also the highest vote total any show had received heading into this round. It faced much tougher competition, fellow Dick Wolf police procedural Chicago PD, in the Elite Eight. It easily dispatched that challenge, receiving 83% its weakest showing of the three rounds leading up to the championship. It lucked out in the Final Four, facing by far the weakest performer in the Final Four: freshman drama Found. It nearly matched its vote share from the first round there, but it did so with far fewer votes. Nevertheless, one thing remained certain: in all there of the first rounds, SVU was the highest vote-getter. Another thing was consistent: in all three round, the #2 vote getter was the show it would eventually face in the championship match.

Magnum PI was canceled last summer, with the second half of its fifth season yet to air at the time. Though the final episodes wrapped in January of this year, that has not doused the passion of Magnum's fanbase. They lifted it to an impressive underdog victory against Chicago Med, one of NBC's strongest shows. With 68% of the vote in that round, it was far less of a force than SVU, but it remained a show to watch. It defeated another Wolf show in the Elite Eight, taking out Law & Order with 64% of the vote. It once again faced stiff competition from a Wolf production in the Final Four, this time taking on bubble drama Organized Crime. In its weakest showing up to that point, it took 63% and secured its place in the championships match. While it continued to receive the second-most votes in each round, support for the show also dwindled with each passing week. Did that spell doom for it in the finals?

Both SVU and Magnum PI surpassed their previous vote totals in the championship match, but only one could come out on top. In the end, that was SVU, which finished off a perfect run. It received over 1,500 votes this time, taking roughly 78% of the vote versus Magnum. Magnum's vote total would have been enough to win in all but one other matchup in this tournament's run, but it wasn't enough to overcome the groundswell of support for SVU.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!

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