ABC Renew/Cancel Week 8: One Shining Moment for Station 19 or The Rookie, as the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness Concludes

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, it's the announcement of the winning show in the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness Tournament! Plus, I take a closer look at one of ABC's most vulnerable shows this season!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Not Dead Yet (0.26, 0.21-0.32)

Leans Renewal
The Conners (0.37, 0.34-0.41)

Likely Renewal:

Certain Renewal:

Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Good Doctor (0.21, 0.18-0.26)
Station 19 (0.33, 0.29-0.37)

Already Renewed:
9-1-1 (0.58, 0.52-0.60)
Abbott Elementary (0.50, 0.28-1.43) 
Grey's Anatomy (0.48, 0.39-0.56)
The Rookie (0.33, 0.27-0.38)
Will Trent (0.35, 0.30-0.38)

Not Dead Yet: Last week, Not Dead Yet rose from its season low, drawing a still-low 0.26 in the demo. Still, its retention from The Conners was better than usual, so it was one of the better performances we've seen from it this season. Despite that, I'm still expecting a cancellation. While its delayed viewing was a key argument for renewal in season one, it's working against it this season. The strong multiplatform performance has completely faded, doing just a 0.67 in MP+3 for its premiere, compared to a 1.89 in MP+7 for its series premiere. While it surely closed the gap a bit with a full week of data, that's still a far cry from where it was, showing interest has clearly faded. It's also only gaining roughly a tenth in the L+7 metric (AKA live and DVR viewing, without streaming added in), which is also a clear decline from last season. I don't see much of a reason for ABC to renew this show, especially with two promising pilots incoming next season featuring beloved ABC sitcom veterans. It LEANS CANCELLATION, but I could make a case for an even harsher prediction.

The Rookie: Today, ABC ordered a seventh season of The Rookie. I've been critical of its L+SD ratings performance this season, due to its noticeable declines from its Tuesday run last season, but I've maintained a likely renewal prediction for it due to its delayed performance. I've said many times that I expect season seven to be its final season, but that remains to be seen. It earned this renewal, though, and is a correct prediction.

The First Annual ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness Concludes!

After four weeks of voting, we have our champion... but first, let's look back at the road both shows have taken to get here!

Station 19 had the toughest road of any, having to compete in a play-in round in week one against fellow canceled show The Good Doctor. Thanks to its devoted, passionate fanbase, it demolished the competition and advanced to the Elite Eight, facing off against #1 seed 9-1-1, another show with many passionate fans who also turned out to vote. In the end, despite a thrilling vote that saw both shows take the lead at multiple points in the voting, Station 19 defeated 9-1-1 by roughly sixteen percent and 2,000 votes. In the Final Four, despite a decrease in votes, Station 19 still easily trounced Will Trent, defeating it by a nearly ninety-point margin.

The Rookie was the #6 seed at the start of the tournament, and faced off against the legendary Grey's Anatomy, ABC's longest-running show. In spite of that tough competitor, The Rookie triumphed by one of the narrowest victory margins we've ever seen in a TVRG March Madness Tournament, with a 0.6% margin of victory. If faced Abbott Elementary, ABC's #2 show, in the Final Four round, and won that match pretty easily, with 60% of the vote. In both cases, The Rookie was the underdog. It heads into the championship match as the higher seed, and thus, seemingly the favorite, but it is up against a powerful fanbase.

That brings us to our championship match. Voting kicked off last Monday, and just closed. Over 3,000 votes were cast, and while plenty of fans of The Rookie did show up to support their favorite show, the result was not close. Station 19 obliterated The Rookie, gathering nearly 97% of the vote in the championship match - the largest margin of victory we've ever seen in a TVRG March Madness championship match. It also saw a marked increase in votes from the Final Four round on its way to the championship title. Station 19 received the most votes in every round of competition in this tournament, and this championship victory ends a truly incredible Cinderella run for the long-running firefighter drama.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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