It's that time of year again, when the networks are readying to announce their fall schedules and the renewal status of their shows. That means it's time to wrap up my ABC Renew/Cancel for the year, and give my final calls on the shows ABC has left. Keep on reading for my last thoughts on all seven remaining shows on the Alphabet Network.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.23, 0.17-0.32)
The Company You Keep (0.25, 0.20-0.29)
Leans Cancellation:
Big Sky (0.25, 0.19-0.31)
Home Economics (0.35, 0.30-0.41)
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie: Feds (0.30, 0.21-0.44)
Alaska Daily: The second-lowest-rated of ABC's scripted programming this season, Alaska Daily is one show that seems to truly have very little going for it. While it boasts a big name star in two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank (who received a Golden Globe nod for her work on the series), it never really showed any promise, outside of solid multiplatform ratings for its premiere, which ABC was sure to boast about back in the fall. Since then, they haven't released any glowing press conferences about its streaming performance. If it's fallen on there as well, ABC truly has no reason to renew it, considering its same-day ratings and poor retention from Grey's Anatomy. Of all of ABC's remaining shows, it is easily the first to be cut - and with only two shows confirmed to be ending this season, it seems highly likely that it's a goner. Chance of renewal: 20%
Big Sky: Now in its third season, Big Sky has comfortably settled in as one of ABC's lowest-rated dramas - not quite at the bottom, but very close. It ties The Company You Keep iwht a 0.25 average, rating above only Alaska Daily and the already-ending A Million Little Things. Considering the semi-anthological nature of the show, and the shortened orders it's received the past two years, this is not a show that will be a syndication player for ABC. It's also not a show that needs any additional seasons for closure, as it wrapped up most of its ongoing storylines in its third season finale. ABC doesn't need this show, and with a writer's strike looming, they may not even have room for it if the premieres of their shows are delayed by multiple months. I could envision ABC deciding to keep it around for one more season just to be safe and avoid running out of dramas (as they did this season), but there is more working against this show's chances than there is bolstering them. It's hard to ever confidently predict the cancellation of a long-time flop, but after two-and-a-half season of weak performances, I think this may be it. Chance of renewal: 45%
The Company You Keep: Much like Alaska Daily, it's hard to see what The Company You Keep has going for it. Its ratings are somewhat better (a full two hundredths to be exact), and its multiplatform performance wasn't awful (we have no word on Alaska Daily's 2023 multiplatform performance), so it's not the most likely cancellation on ABC. Still, it has wasted a strong American Idol lead-in with a string of 0.2s, only going as high as 0.29. While ABC has renewed low-rated freshman shows in the past, it's hard to see how it would benefit them to renew this one. Previous flop freshman renewals can be traced to who created or produced them, the shows belonging to a franchise, or the need to fill space. I don't see any of those factors favorite Company, and so, it should be one-and-done. Chance of renewal: 30%
The Conners: Of all of ABC's remaining shows, this is the only one that really deserved to have been renewed by now. It's ABC's #1 show, and their longest-running comedy outside of the already-canceled The Goldbergs. ABC doesn't' own the show, and due to unique circumstances, they have to renegotiate contracts each year with its cast. That is the logical explanation for the lack of a renewal, and it's why I'm not worried about it being left to wait until May. It would be truly absurd to see a network cancel their top show, though it has happened, including earlier today when Fox canceled 9-1-1, and a few years ago, when ABC canceled The Conners' parent show, Roseanne. This show doesn't seem to have the issues that doomed either of those shows, and thus, its renewal is virtually guaranteed. Chance of renewal: 99%
Home Economics: While season three was easily the strongest season for this show, ratings-wise, it also appears like it will be the final. A shortened season was always a worrisome sign for it - no sitcom that a network truly intends of sticking with for a long time is going to get a 13-episode order for its third season, after having 22 episodes the season prior. With only 42 episodes to its credit, the co-produced Home Economics is very far from potential syndication, and ABC can likely tell that it isn't getting to 88 episodes. It would need two more full seasons to get close to that number (86 episodes), and ABC seems to have decided not to try to get it there. ABC prioritized Not Dead Yet over it, and may not have even put it on the fall schedule at all if not for some behind-the-scenes issues with Not Dead Yet. Its ratings performance led me to believe it may survive, but as the season's gone on, I've soured on it, just as ABC seems to have. Chance of renewal: 35%
Not Dead Yet: Based solely on linear ratings, Not Dead Yet doesn't look like that logical of a renewal. Its ratings are deeply mediocre, with just a 0.32 in thew 18-49 demo, the lowest ABC comedy in L+SD ratings. However, its performance on streaming has been solid, and ABC has bragged about how well it's doing. Any network is going to tout the performance of their show in a press release, but the numbers ABC released for Not Dead Yet were genuinely impressive. There's no way of knowing how well it's doing on there since the premiere, but the data we have is a positive sign for it. Between the streaming performance and ABC giving it preferential treatment over Home Economics, this so-so linear performer is a favorite for a second run. Chance of renewal: 75%
The Rookie: Feds: I was all set to call this the most likely renewal of ABC's "bubble" shows, and then ABC announced that they were picking up 9-1-1, which was shockingly canceled by Fox. Looking at ABC's schedule, it's very hard to see any place for 9-1-1 that it could remain year-round, outside of Tuesday nights. The Rookie and Will Trent are both renewed already, so could that leave Feds on the outs? I'm not currently betting on a cancellation here, but this is a bump in the road for a show that seemed to be causing to a renewal it didn't really deserve all that much to begin with. Its ratings are pretty awful, and ABC may have some major reshuffling to do on the night it calls home, but I remain doubtful that ABC will give up on a Rookie franchise so quickly. ABC probably only has room to renew one of their four remaining dramas, and this is still the one I'd bet on it being, since it has a bit more going for it than its fellow flops. It moves to LEANS RENEWAL this week for the first time since November. Chance of renewal: 60%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
