FOX Renew/Cancel Week 18: Final Predictions

Predictions for 05/06/23

Below are the final renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, Fox has opted to cancel drama '9-1-1' and sitcom 'Call Me Kat'. '9-1-1' has already found a new home on ABC and will be airing on that network for its 7th season.

9-1-1: In an unprecedented move, the Fox network Cancelled procedural drama '9-1-1' after a six-season run on the first of May. Once the average of football-inflated 'The Simpsons' falls a bit more, this will mean that Fox has flat-out canceled their highest-rated scripted series. This was an incorrect prediction for this column and adds fuel to the idea that Nielsen ratings matter less and less when it comes to these decisions. '9-1-1' was a series that seemed like a lock all-season long, but even the strongest show on the network is not safe when it is too expensive to keep around. '9-1-1' will air its seventh season on ABC, thus taking its strength in the Nielsen ratings with it. Fox was already in a dire state before but losing their best performer makes their chances of having a decent Fall 2023 even less likely. It is almost certain that whatever Fox decides to air in the same timeslot as ABC's '9-1-1' will be trampled by their former golden child.

Call Me Kat: The Fox network has pulled the plug on 'Call Me Kat' after three seasons. The news came almost immediately after the series dropped to a new series low (0.15) for its finale on Thursday evening. This series was in the "Likely Cancellation" category from October to February but was upgraded after it initially improved when placed after 'Animal Control', thus making this an incorrect prediction. The full-season order it received made it seem like Fox was intent on keeping it around, but the timeslot downgrade from 9 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. was clearly a terrible sign. 'Call Me Kat' being Cancelled is not a total shock, but it definitely seemed to be on the safer side after Production Weekly reported that a fourth season was in development. Ultimately, this was a miscalculation.

9-1-1: Lone Star: '9-1-1: Lone Star' was Renewed by Fox on the same day that they canceled parent series '9-1-1'. This serves as a correct prediction for this column since the series had been a "Certain Renewal" since the season began. Now that '9-1-1' is gone, 'Lone Star' is the closest thing Fox has to a solid scripted performer in the Nielsen ratings. Expect the series to remain one of the highest-rated on Fox during the upcoming television season.

Animal Control: Of the four shows that have yet to be renewed or canceled, 'Animal Control' is the only one that is Likely to be Renewed. This sitcom consistently remained at or above a 0.20 in the Adults 18-49 demographic this spring, a feat that neither 'Kat' nor 'Flatch' managed to accomplish. In addition, Futon Critic is reporting that reruns of 'Animal Control' will be airing on Thursday nights from late May to late June. Though Fox is a wildcard, it is very unlikely that they would be scheduling back-to-back encores of a show they intend to cancel. 'Animal Control' has a 75% chance of being renewed.

Welcome To Flatch: It feels redundant to go over all the reasons why 'Welcome To Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled, but it deserves to be repeated. Remove the NFL-inflated installment and its average falls from a 0.23 to a 0.19, tied for last-place with 'HouseBroken'. It was given a short order instead of a 22-episode package and ended its run with a new season low. And yet, that is still not enough to make this a certain cancellation on the Fox network. 'Flatch' has a 40% chance of being renewed.

Fantasy Island: 'Fantasy Island' is an abysmal performer that can only manage ratings in the 0.14-0.20 range despite airing after a juggernaut like '9-1-1'. It is Certain to be Canceled and has just a 20% chance of being renewed.

HouseBroken: 'HouseBroken' is Likely to be Canceled and has a 30% chance of being renewed. Ratings are lackluster and the scheduling has been erratic, but Fox may have lower standards for summer programming. It still sits comfortably in the red.

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