ABC Renew/Cancel Week 2: Emergence Emerges as ABC’s Most Likely Cancellation

It's been a few weeks since my last update to the ABC Renew/Cancel, and it feels like a good time to check in on all of the network's shows. It's been a busy period, filled mostly with ratings declines, and I have a few updates. Stay tuned to see which shows are on the move!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Emergence (0.6)
Fresh Off the Boat (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
Bless This Mess (0.8)
Single Parents (0.7)
Stumptown (0.6)

Leans Renewal: 
Schooled (0.8)

Likely Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6)
A Million Little Things (0.8)
Mixed-ish (0.8)
The Rookie (0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Black-ish (0.7)
The Conners (1.2)
The Good Doctor (0.9)
The Goldbergs (1.0)

Already Renewed:
Grey's Anatomy

Already Canceled/Final Season:
How To Get Away With Murder
Modern Family

Coming Soon:
The Baker & The Beauty
For Life
Station 19
United We Fall

Emergence: It had a relatively decent start, but as I predicted in my first renew/cancel, Emergence suffered a big drop in week two and another in week three. Now it's at 0.5. It was steady in week four, which is one of the very few positive signs for it, but I really doubt that this will be enough to save it. Ratings are low in general now, but  It will probably last for 13 episodes or get a short backorder before it's off the ABC schedule for good by early 2020. I'm downgrading it to a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Fresh Off the Boat: Putting aside the drama surrounding the show following tweets by star Constance Wu, this always seemed like it would be the end of the road for Fresh Off the Boat. While it wasn't really all that strong last season, it did enough to get by on a network that clearly wanted a Friday comedy block. This season, it's expectedly down as it moved away from the 8 PM timeslot (which gave it a local programming lead-in), though it's doing about the same as Speechless did in the slot. Considering the big year-to-year declines across broadcast, I'd say that it's stronger than Speechless, not that that says too much given how Speechless turned out. Ultimately, the ratings are probably just too low for it to continue given how old it is and how ready to move on some members of the cast seem to be. It's being downgraded to a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

The Rookie: In the only positive movement of the week, The Rookie sees a bump up to LIKELY RENEWAL. While 0.6 isn't a massive number, it's holding all of Shark Tank (or even gaining a few hundredths) in one of the worst slots on all of broadcast. ABC didn't seem to have much faith in the show with this move, but it's holding its own and performing as well as ABC could ask of it. It's hard to see it not making it to season three at this point.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions?  Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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