ABC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Mediocre Newbies and Sophomore Comedies Lead to a Mixed Premiere Week

Premiere Week has officially ended, and that means that it's time for the first ABC Renew/Cancel of the 2019-20 season! It was an interesting premiere week filled with plenty of surprises (mostly negative), which should also make for an interest season prediction-wise. ABC's always pretty unpredictable with at least a few of their shows, but I'm going to try to predict them anyway! Keep reading for my initial slate of predictions!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 

Leans Cancellation:
Bless This Mess (0.8)
Emergence (0.8)
Fresh Off the Boat (0.5)
Single Parents (0.7)
Stumptown (0.7)

Leans Renewal: 
The Rookie (0.7)
Schooled (0.8)

Likely Renewal:
American Housewife (0.7)
A Million Little Things (1.0)
Mixed-ish (0.9)

Certain Renewal:
Black-ish (0.9)
The Conners (1.3)
The Good Doctor (1.0)
The Goldbergs (1.0)

Already Renewed:
Grey's Anatomy

Already Canceled/Final Season:
How To Get Away With Murder
Modern Family

Coming Soon:
The Baker & The Beauty
For Life
Station 19
United We Fall

Mixed-Ish: Let's start with the good news, since there's not too much of it on ABC (or most network) besides the reliable veterans. While not even remotely lighting the world on fire, this spinoff of Blackish got off to a very nice start with an above-league average 0.9. While it's bound to fall from there, that still makes it the #1 new comedy premiere (narrowly edging out CBS' Bob Hearts Abishola in unrounded numbers and tying it in rounded). It also grew from its lead-in and likely propped up Blackish, which was able to tie it at 9:30. While it could collapse from here, ABC clearly loves the  so-called "Ish Universe" and with a tie-in to a known brand, it's more likely that they'd renew this than partially-owned Schooled or lower-rated Bless This Mess (more on that show later). Based on the premiere rating alone, it's by far the safest ABC newbie and it's even safer than most ABC sitcoms. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Stumptown: It's a pity that this show, which showed true promise with large L+3 DVR games, is stuck behind a bomb like Single Parents. Cobie Smulders' new PI drama held 100% of its (small) lead-in with a 0.7, which is somewhat encouraging, but at the end of the day it's still a 0.7. It's also bound to suffer post-premiere drops like (nearly) every other newbie in history. At this point, it's hard to see it holding up well enough to score a renewal, but it has plenty of time to turn things around and if it holds up decently, it could score another season. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Emergence: Slightly more promising than Stumptown is Emergence, which started at 0.8 in what has been a troubled slot for ABC (outside of last year's The Rookie, no fall newbie has made it to a second season in this slot in decades, with only veterans making it out of the slot alive). It's not a very impressive debut, but it's one that suggests there's at least some life there. However, sci-fi shows tend to drop heavily after their premieres (a drop similar to last year's Manifest would give Emergence a 0.3 season low). The low L+3 DVR gains are also a troubling sign of how little interest there is in the show, but I won't take those into account for my predictions. I do think there's a chance it returns at this point, but it'll need to go against a worrying trend for shows of its genre. Like Stumptown, it LEANS CANCELLATION.

Bless This Mess: The only "veteran" I'll discuss in this first week, Bless This Mess didn't get off to a very impressive debut this season. After surprisingly receiving decent sampling in spring for its pilot, the show dropped a few tenths and bottomed out at 0.6, which put it heavily on the bubble. However, ABC saw potential in it and moved it behind The Conners, which now is the #1 comedy on television. Once it premiered, it became pretty clear that ABC probably shouldn't have had the faith in it that they had, as the show was only able to hold about 65% of the Conners' rating with a 0.8. That rating ties or surpasses four of ABC's comedies, but that's with the best lead-in available. As it's only on episode seven, it's quite possible that it'll drop similarly to most newbies, and that will put it in very unimpressive territory. Like with Stumptown and Emergence, it could put itself in contention with a stronger hold than expected, but as of now I think this is the biggest renewal underdog on the entire network. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

What do you think of predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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