FOX Renew/Cancel: Pre-TCA Predictions

With the TCAs about to begin, here are some new predictions, in absolutely no order. Enjoy!

9-1-1 got off to a great start, getting a preliminary 1.8 A18-49 rating. The drama, which hails from Ryan Murphy and has an impressive cast, grew out of its X-Files lead-in and was the highest-rated show on broadcast for the night. Even if it holds half this audience by the end of the season, we should be looking at a second go-around.

Prediction: Certain Renewal

The X-Files
The X-Files returned to a preliminary 1.4 A18-49 rating, down 42% from its previous episode. It seems like either many people didn’t know it was back or didn’t care to see a second season of this revival. With the ad rates saying that it should be performing much higher, FOX may just want to retire it and think of another show they could revive.

Prediction: Likely Cancelation

LA to Vegas
LA to Vegas got off to an OK-enough 1.1 A18-49 Live + Same Day start, albeiit was available online a fair amount of time before the linear premiere. I can see it stabilizing in the 0.8-1.0 territory, which would place it ahead of what most, if not all of FOX’s live action comedies would be doing in that time slot in the spring. We’ll have to wait and see where this one stabilizes, but for now I think it’s coming back.

Prediction: Likely Renewal

Lethal Weapon
Lethal Weapon isn’t what it was on Wednesdays, but it’s still holding Tuesday nights together well enough for FOX. Can’t see a way it doesn’t return.

Prediction: Certain Renewal

The Gifted
Maybe it’s just because it was New Years Day, but it seems worrisome that The Gifted couldn’t return to more than a 0.7 A18-49 Live + Same Day rating given all of the hype leading up to its premiere in the fall. It definitely has going for it the fact that Marvel is owned by Disney and the studio which produces the show is about to be as well. I envision that it has a solid audience outside of linear television as well.

Prediction: Likely Renewal

While Ghosted is doing solid enough so far, LA to Vegas had a promising enough start and with the recent backorder, it now has more time without the football halo to fall. With New Girl and likely Brooklyn Nine-Nine ending and The Last Man On Earth always living on the edge, maybe they’ll like to bring this back to keep some youth in the FOX live-action comedy line up. 

Prediction: Likely Renewal

Empire, Star, Family Guy, Bob’s Burgers
One of the biggest hits on television; one of the biggest hits on the network; long-running animated show that has episodes backlogged; ditto plus has a movie scheduled for 2019. I’d be shocked if any of these shows don’t come back in the fall.

Prediction: Certain Renewal for All

The Last Man On Earth 
Despite being a serialized show that reportedly barely got this fourth season, LMOE really isn’t doing all that badly this season. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how it does compared to some newer shows, as well as if it holds in the spring or sinks down to series lows. It rates at 77% of FOX’s average with an ad rate of 73% of the average.

Prediction: Leans Renewal

The Mick
The Mick just got downgraded to the Tuesday at 9:30 time slot when they could have tried it out on Sunday and thrown LMOE there. They do seem to like the show, but there’s only so much that can be done on the network’s end. Maybe it makes them money on non-linear platforms, but for now I’m just going to look at its linear ratings compared to those of LMOE, LA to Vegas, and Ghosted.

Prediction: Leans Cancelation

The Exorcist
I defended its renewal countless times in my column last season, but I just can’t do that again after seeing it hit 0.4s. 

Prediction: Certain Cancelation

Lucifer leads off Monday nights to OK ratings. They’re nothing to brag about, but as we’ve seen from the Binge Reports Lucifer is very popular with streaming.

Prediction: Certain Renewal 

A fifth season of Gotham seems less certain than new seasons of some other shows. On the plus side, its linear ratings are still hanging in there, but it is aging and FOX doesn’t own the show. However, it rates at 82% of FOX’s average with an ad rate of 80% of the average. Spring will probably be most telling for it. 

Prediction: Leans Renewal

What do you think of these predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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