ABC Renew/Cancel - November 17: Once Upon a Time is Likely to be Renewed

There is one change in prediction in this last week, with Kevin Probably's fate becoming more uncertain. Also, ABC Renew/Cancel will be taking the week off next week, since less shows are airing next week with Thanksgiving.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Inhumans (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
The Mayor (0.8, 0.7-1.2)

Kevin Probably Saves the World (0.8, 0.6-1.0)

Likely to be Renewed
Designated Survivor (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.1, 0.9-1.4)
Once Upon a Time (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Speechless (1.2, 1.0-1.4)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Black-ish (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
The Good Doctor (2.0, 1.8-2.2)
Grey's Anatomy (2.0, 1.8-2.3)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.9, 0.9-1.1)

Fate Determined
The Goldbergs (RENEWED)
Modern Family (RENEWED)
Ten Days in the Valley (DE-FACTO CANCELED)

Once Upon a Time: While its ratings have fallen, and it is now doing unimpressive ratings, even for a Friday night, Once Upon a Time isn't dead yet. The question is whether or not ABC is still making money on the show, and while they won't be making much on it from advertisements going forward, if they are making as much on the show from Netflix as was reported, it seems likely that the show is still making the network a profit. So, it is likely to be renewed.

Kevin (Probably) Saves the World: What does a partial backorder mean? It can mean different things in different scenarios. In this case, I believe that it means that ABC wants to continue with Kevin Probably, but they have midseason dramas that they have faith in and don't want to send to summer just so Kevin can air through the spring. So, Kevin will probably stay at a toss-up until we get a chance to see how strong midseason will be for ABC. If they have a strong midseason, Kevin will likely be done after its one season. If it doesn't live up to their expectations, Kevin will likely return.

How to Get Away with Murder: It seemed kind of bold to put How to Get Away with Murder as a certain renewal at the beginning of the season considering how it declined. However, now I have two reasons to be more secure in the prediction I have made. One is how steady the show has remained over the course of the fall half of its season, never falling beneath 0.9. The second is C7 ratings. When it comes time to make decisions on shows, networks care about how many people are watching the commercials. Out of the ratings reported regularly, L+SD (live plus same day) ratings give us the best picture. However, occasionally C3 and C7 ratings are released, showing how many people watch the commercials in a show in a three or seven day period. Earlier this week, Ad Age reported that the show is a large gainer in C7, gaining as much as This Is Us, Will & Grace, and Criminal Minds, and only less than The Good Doctor. So, How to Get Away with Murder is more valuable than its L+SD ratings indicate.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and come back for another ABC Renew/Cancel in two weeks!

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