After a week off, the ABC Renew/Cancel is back, with a look at ABC's ever-worsening Thursday night lineup. Keep reading for a key prediction change, and my first writeup of the season for the long-running medical drama Grey's Anatomy.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.31, 0.22-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Already Ending:
The Conners
Yet to Premiere:
The Rookie
Shifting Gears
Will Trent
Doctor Odyssey: I try my best not to change my predictions after a single data point, in the off chance that it could be a fluke. For the sake of Doctor Odyssey, I was certainly hoping that its 0.25 a few weeks ago was a fluke, and I gave it an extra week before addressing it. Based on last week's rating, it was not a fluke. After a strong start, Doctor Odyssey has now lost almost 50% of its premiere rating, hitting a 0.22 in the key demo last week. Of course, its lead-in, 9-1-1, is also in freefall mode, itself having notched only a 0.31 last week. That being said, that's still some pretty mediocre retention, and even Grey's Anatomy was a blessing to grow from it at 10 despite its struggles this season. 9-1-1 also has streaming performance to its credit, while ABC has been quite mum on just how Doctor Odyssey has been performing in multiplatform ratings. They've boasted about 9-1-1, High Potential, and Abbott Elementary, so their silence on Doctor Odyssey speaks volumes. With tanking ratings, poor viewer reception, and a streaming performance that apparently doesn't even warrant a press release, it's hard to actually think of what Doctor Odyssey has going for it. ABC was high on this show, and obviously gave it the best lead-in they could, but even shows they were high on have been canceled before. ABC hasn't had all that many new drams in general in recent memory, but some shows that they gave priority treatment to did end up canceled anyway. Just a few years ago, they tried everything they could to make The Rookie: Feds work, but it just didn't, and they canceled it. I expect a similar situation here, where even though they ordered a "full" season of eighteen episodes in advance, they'll decide to just give up on it before it becomes too much of a problem in future seasons. The only thing complicating matters is Disney's working relationship with Ryan Murphy, who has created so many shows for them (or, rather, for 20th TV, which they bought after most of his biggest hits already premiered) that've done well and remained enduring hits. Still, Murphy has seven other shows on Disney platforms, and two more ordered to series and on the way soon, so he's not exactly hurting for work. They have enough Murphy shows on the docket that they can probably cancel one of his projects without him being too upset with them. Also complicating matters for Doctor Odyssey is that a new spinoff of 9-1-1 is in development for ABC. ABC has plenty of room, but they seem committed to keeping a schedule that's light on scripted. If that does happen, that post-9-1-1 slot is a perfect place to air a spinoff, and Doctor Odyssey will be left without a slot. All signs point to this being a sinking ship. It now LEANS CANCELLATION.
Grey's Anatomy: ABC's Thursday lineup is in a precarious situation right now, with all three shows cratering to new lows. As I said above, Grey's Anatomy is no exception. The show has hit several new lows this season, and is currently down 46% from last season, which aired earlier this year. With that being said, I think it's clearly doing better than Doctor Odyssey, retaining its lead-in far better than Doctor Odyssey is and, in fact, growing from Doctor Odyssey this week. 10 PM is a far tougher slot, and while Grey's Anatomy is definitely struggling in the linear ratings, ABC didn't do it any favors this season by sticking it behind a show that is, at best, struggling to find an audience. The days of Grey's Anatomy as a L+SD ratings powerhouse are gone at this point, and we're not likely to ever again see the show rate as one of TV's highest-rated shows, something it did effortlessly for many years. Still, it would be an absolute shock for the show not to return. Even a ratings drop as sharp as this is unlikely to make ABC rethink a renewal for a show that makes them so much money with international and streaming deals. ABC hasn't released data on how Grey's Anatomy is performing on streaming this season, unlike some of their other signature series, but it usually places high on Hulu's top fifteen charts throughout the week, and has always previously been a strong performer there, so it's most likely still performing well there. I do think the end is near for Grey's, just because it's twenty-one seasons into its run and every show does have to end eventually, but its linear ratings decline won't stop it from getting a renewal this season. When this show does eventually end, ABC is going to make sure it gets a big farewell. Its enviable run warrants star treatment on its way out. A final season pickup could happen during the 2024-25 season, but I wouldn't even bet on next year being it. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL for now, because there is still plenty of time for ABC to announce this season as the final one in the event that the financials aren't working out.
Interactive Schedule:
Beginning this week, the ABC Renew/Cancel will utilize the Interactive Schedule tool, created by TVRG's own The Ratings Junkie. To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule by clicking on the prediction you would like to make, then tapping on the show. For example, if you believe 9-1-1 is a Certain Renewal, you can tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on 9-1-1 to label it so. You can save your schedule and share it in the comments by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download,' and then dragging and drop the image to the comments, or you can save it to your device and upload it to the comments.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | The Golden Bachelorette | Abbott Elementary | What Would You Do? | |||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | Doctor Odyssey | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
