NBC Renew/Cancel Week 4: Brilliant Minds Looks a Bit Stupid

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a few of NBC's most endangered scripted series take center stage, as one is headed for a downgrade. Plus, my first assessment of the season for a venerable veteran!

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
Found (0.23, 0.22-0.23)

Leans Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.26, 0.22-0.29)

Leans Renewal:
The Irrational (0.29, 0.26-0.31)

Likely Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.37, 0.36-0.38)
Chicago Med (0.36, 0.33-0.38)
Law & Order (0.33, 0.30-0.36)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago PD (0.34, 0.32-0.36)
Law & Order: SVU (0.40)
Saturday Night Live (0.84, 0.73-0.94)

Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
Lopez vs Lopez
Night Court
St. Denis Medical
Suits: LA

Brilliant Minds: NBC's only freshman drama this fall, Brilliant Minds has flown under the radar a bit in the last few weeks in the NBC Renew/Cancel. This week, though, I feel it's time to address the show, on the heels of it hitting a new series low. After three datapoints holding in the 0.27-0.29 range, Brilliant Minds slid this week to a 0.22, with 0.24/0.20 halves. That's actually a better hold at 10:30 than we've seen in some previous episodes. In week two, it had utterly dire 0.33/0.20 halves, a precipitous 40% drop over the course of an hour. In week three, it looked better, with 0.29/0.25 halves. Consistent in these ratings, though, is that The Voice is inflating its ratings. That's not a surprise, as any big lead-in is likely to inflate its lead-out to some degree, but with a 0.20 at 10:30 for half of its showings so far, Brilliant Minds is showing it doesn't have all that much of a loyal audience. Though NBC bragged about the show reaching nine million viewers for its pilot in both linear and streaming viewing, the show does not seem to be doing all that well on Peacock. In the last week, the show has peaked at #10 on the NBC-owned streamer, below mainstays of their trending list like SVU, Found and the Chicagos. On both NBC and Peacock, the show seems to be struggling going to attract a sizable audience. NBC has been lenient with Monday night dramas, handing out renewals to Quantum Leap and The Irrational in recent years, despite modest ratings. A similar second chance for Brilliant Minds is not out of the question, but there isn't much of a ratings-related reason to renew this show so far. With space on NBC's schedule becoming more scarce next season, a reprieve for Brilliant Minds feels unlikely. It LEANS CANCELLATION, and further performances like this week's will likely lead to a further downgrade in the future.

Found: Last week, I raked this show over the coals for its L+SD premiere rating, a paltry 0.22 behind a strong SVU lead-in. I still think that was a terrible showing, but the show did at least rise a touch the next week to a 0.23, which is certainly movement in the right direction. I still think this show's best bet at a renewal is a move to Peacock, because it's seemingly doing quite well there. Though it lost out on the #1 spot on Peacock that it held for most of its post-premiere week, it's still holding strong at #2 on Peacock, behind SVU. In a regular season, I do think that such a performance may cause a network to spare an underperforming show, but with NBC losing out on three hours of programming on Tuesdays (as well as post-NFL Sundays, a night they haven't recently put much effort into but could have stuck lower-rated shows being kept around for streaming or syndication reasons, as they did with the Blacklist), I think this show has a very tough road to renewal on NBC. NBC has several new dramas premiering in the next year or so (three are already ordered, though NBC hasn't yet confirmed if they'll all air this season), with at least one new show likely taking up a fall slot next season. Found's post-SVU slot would be an ideal time to premiere a new show, and Found is giving NBC no reason to keep it there. I still believe it's a LIKELY CANCELLATION on NBC, in spite of the streaming performance.

Law & Order: SVU: With so many shows premiering in our last update, SVU was left out. While it remains a strong performer for NBC, its ratings give me little to discuss. Twenty-six seasons into its run, it's still a powerhouse with no end in sight yet. Outside of SNL (which only airs in primetime in part of the country), it's NBC's #1 scripted show, with a 0.40 in the demo for both its premiere and second episode of this season. That may be lower than last season, but it's less of a drop than we've seen for its fellow Dick Wolf creations, the Chicago franchise. In addition to the strong linear ratings, the Mariska Hargitay-fronted series is still a dynamic streaming performer, being Peacock's top draw. Even beyond ratings and streaming, the show is of great value to NBC thanks to its syndication and international deals, being one of the most popular scripted dramas in syndication. While I do believe the Dick Wolf empire is fading a bit, SVU remains its brightest light, and an entry in the franchise that will probably last as long as Wolf and Hargitay want it to. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of these predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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