Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Golden Bachelorette (0.30, 0.27-0.34)
Likely Renewal:
Shark Tank (0.24)
What Would You Do? (0.20, 0.18-0.21)
Certain Renewal:
20/20 (0.19, 0.17-0.23)
America's Funniest Home Videos (0.23, 0.23-0.24)
Dancing with the Stars (0.67, 0.56-0.76)
Already Canceled/Ending:
Scamanda (miniseries)
Already Renewed:
N/A
Coming Soon:
American Idol
The Bachelor
Celebrity Jeopardy!
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
The Great Christmas Light Fight
Press Your Luck
The Golden Bachelorette: Coming up with a prediction for this one was very difficult. I truly believe it could go either way, with some signs pointing towards renewal and some pointing against. Its ratings thus far have not stacked up to The Golden Bachelor in any way, averaging just 0.30 in the demo versus that show's 0.60, a 50% decline. While ratings this season have been lower than last season in general, a 50% drop is extreme, and ABC can't be happy about it. The Bachelorette is notably weaker than The Bachelor, but even that can't excuse this drop. The Bachelor airs in early winter and The Bachelorette airs in summer, a far worse time of the year for ratings. Still, this year's Bachelorette was "only" 42% lower than this year's Bachelor, in what was a banner year for the Bachelor. The Golden Bachelor and Golden Bachelorette both aired at the same time of year, and The Golden Bachelorette is still falling far below where it should be. ABC was likely expecting the show to be a bit weaker than The Golden Bachelor, especially up against unscripted competition on both CBS and Fox, but a performance this low must be a surprise to the. It's also hurting the rest of the night, not doing Abbott Elementary any favors and leaving the sitcom to have to grow out of it on its own, a tough ask for a show stuck at 9:30. I do think these numbers are cancellation-worthy, but there are other factors. One, the show seems to be doing pretty well on streaming, charting on Hulu throughout the week. While ABC doesn't produce the show - Warner Bros. does - being a draw for the streaming service owned by their parent company could be beneficial for The Golden Bachelorette's rental chances. In addition, ABC seems dedicated to the 'Golden' shows, having put veteran spinoff Bachelor in Paradise on hiatus in order to focus on developing the Golden franchise. It's been four years since a Bachelor show has gotten the axe (Listen to Your Heart, an ill-advised music-centric spinoff that bombed horribly), and ABC seems to have only grown to love the franchise more in those years. While the ratings certainly warrant cancellation, I do think their persistent dedication to this franchise will end up saving it. It LEANS RENEWAL, though I'm guessing we won't see it again until 2026 at the earliest.
What Would You Do?: One of the lowest-rated shows on ABC's lineup, out-rating only 20/20 in the two episodes it's aired so far, What Would You Do? is far from an ABC priority. It was first planned to air on the Mondays that ABC wasn't airing Monday Night Football games, at 10 behind Celebrity Wheel of Fortune and Press Your Luck, but a deal for ABC to air more NFL games on Mondays led to that plan being scrapped after the show had aired just a single episode in that slot. ABC kept it on the schedule anyway, replacing the oft-delayed Scamanda on Wednesday nights. That Wednesday slot is far from an enviable one. It's a night without cohesion, a complete mismatch from start to finish, with a reality dating show running into a single half-hour sitcom running into a hidden camera social experiment show. There's no flow, no rhyme or reason that these shows are airing together, besides all three of them being shows that ABC decided they wanted on the fall schedule. ABC can't be surprised that this lineup isn't working at all, and that What Would You Do? returned with a series low of 0.18 in this slot. I don't know how they could've expected more. To the show's credit, this isn't that much weaker than it did in the far-superior post-American Idol slot, so at least it's consistent in its modest ratings. Despite being a weak performer in the demo and a total non-entity on streaming, the show has one major factor going for it: it's incredibly cheap, among the most inexpensive shows on all of broadcast TV. It does about the same as most other schedule filler that ABC airs at 10, like last year's 20/20-branded miniseries and most of their game shows, and it allows them to fill up slots on their schedule with original programming rather than filler. This is not a show that should - or likely will - ever get priority scheduling, but it serves a purpose, and it's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Dancing with the Stars: No one doubts this show's renewal, but I just wanted to take a moment to shine a light on just how well this show has been doing so far this season. Just two years after ABC shipped this show off to Disney+, it's back on TV, and rating as TV's #1 show. While last year was a strong season for the show, what it's done this season is nothing short of incredible. It's up 10% from last season's average so far, and each episode is consistently up year-to-year from the comparative episode last season. It's two full tenths ahead of The Voice on Tuesdays, and so far, it's three tenths ahead of FBI. It's also helped to launch High Potential, possibly the most promising new show of the season. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll below!
