Welcome to CBS Renew/Cancel Week 2. Since the last edition, Matlock was renewed and Poppa’s House had its series premiere. Below are the prediction changes from Week 1, followed by the updated prediction schedule, an analysis, poll, and the interactive prediction schedule. Let me know what you think in the comments!
Prediction Changes-NCIS: Origins moves from Leans Renew to Likely Renew
-Matlock moves from Likely Renew to Renewed
-Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage moves from Leans Renew to Likely Renew
-S.W.A.T. moves from Likely Renew to Leans Renew
Prediction Key
Week 2 Predictions
Matlock was renewed for a second season after airing just three episodes — one of which was an out-of-time slot special airing. To put things into perspective, it took eight episodes for Fire Country to score its second season renewal and four episodes for Tracker to do the same. Matlock isn’t exactly a ginormous new hit in the A18-49 demo, or even CBS’s highest-rated new show on Thursdays. However, it’s one of their strongest shows in total viewers and reportedly stays that way in multi-platform, with over 10.6 million catching the first episode within the first three of airing.
It’s quite possible Matlock’s super-early renewal came little to do with ratings, and much more with cast contracts. The reimagining of the classic legal drama was originally supposed to premiere in fall 2023, and got delayed by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. Usually, that would mean its cast contracts would expire over the summer, with a renewal or cancelation decision due by then unless contracts were extended. CBS had to extend the contracts, but they may not have done so by a full year. While CBS likely won’t regret this renewal, it came earlier than one would expect in normal circumstances.
Poppa’s House
Also delayed from the 2023-24 TV season is Poppa’s House, which was supposed to premiere in the spring after Bob Hearts Abishola’s abbreviated final season concluded. If Matlock’s early renewal came down to cast contracts, the same situation will likely apply to Poppa’s House. Be on the lookout for an early renewal, if one at all.
I say ‘if one at all’ because while Poppa’s House premiered stronger than I admittedly expected, it has a lot of competition. While ABC, NBC, and FOX would envy its 0.43 A18-49 premiere, it was still the lowest-rated comedy premiere on CBS. Plus, Poppa’s House has not proven itself to be more than a time slot hit yet, with its Paramount+ performance appearing unremarkable at best. If CBS’s comedy development is as strong as it sounds on paper, they’ll likely either need to cancel at least one of the Monday sitcoms, or get creative with a comedy expansion. So far, Poppa’s House is doing its job of filling the hole left by Bob Hearts Abishola for a presumably reduced cost. With how little space CBS has, I’m not comfortable giving it a prediction upgrade just yet.
Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage
Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage did what’s practically unthinkable and rose from its premiere in L+SD A18-49. Its 0.53 rating matches that of Young Sheldon’s second episode from last season. This had the potential to premiere solidly and drop like a rock. Instead, it may actually become a time slot improvement from Young Sheldon, at least when taking out the latter’s series finale jump. If Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage continues to hit ratings in this range, it will be on its way to a Certain Renew prediction, even with how crowded CBS’s schedule is. Unless there is a sitcom expansion, that’s only bad news for CBS’s comedy development and the Monday hour.
NCIS: Origins
CBS has a love-hate relationship with the NCIS franchise. Since the cancelation of NCIS: New Orleans and subsequent premiere of NCIS: Hawai’i, they’ve been premiering and canceling a new iteration practically every season. NCIS: Origins is not likely to fall victim to the cancelation curse this season, as it’s doing exactly what was expected of it: similar ratings to NCIS: Hawai’i for a reduced cost. CBS has to be happy with what is still somehow likely the most expensive NCIS spinoff on the air or in development.
S.W.A.T.
With NCIS: Origins upgraded and Matlock renewed, something has to pay the price. That show is S.W.A.T., whose eighth season premiered down 39% from its previous season premiere and 22% from the season’s average. It’s currently CBS’s second-lowest-rated scripted series, ahead only of the critically acclaimed and internal favorite Elsbeth. It’s also far behind everything else CBS is airing in the 8 pm hour — albeit, it has a lower standard airing on Fridays.
I do still predict that S.W.A.T. will be renewed. Sony has been excellent at renewal negotiations, and it seems unlikely it wouldn’t get so much as a (second) advanced final season announcement. However, that may change if it crashes at 10 pm. NBCUniversal needs one more season of The Equalizer to get it to a syndication-friendly episode count, so this could just come down to who is better at negotiations. My expectation is S.W.A.T. rides out 10 pm until CBS is ready to premiere a second Fire Country spinoff, which could be as soon as the year after next — but CBS does have other options. S.W.A.T. gets downgraded from Likely Renew to Leans Renew this week.
The Neighborhood
Like Poppa’s House, The Neighborhood admittedly returned better than I had expected. I also expected a final season announcement for The Neighborhood by now. CBS has some decisions they need to make regarding their comedy department, particularly regarding new sitcom pickups and how many hours of comedy they want on the schedule. If The Neighborhood doesn’t get a final season announcement by early 2025, it’ll likely get renewed. This isn’t the type of show that will be abruptly canceled. For now, I’m hanging onto my prediction that this will be the final season, even though on the surface the Live + Same Day A18-49 ratings warrant it running for at least a few more.
Poll
Interactive Schedule
Thank you to everyone who shared your Week 1 predictions! This interactive schedule has been updated to reflect Matlock’s renewal. To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule any time below. Click on the prediction you would like to make, then tap on the show. For example, if you agree with me that Ghosts is a Certain Renewal, tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on Ghosts and it will fill in the time slot accordingly. If you would like to share, you can do this by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download’. Then drag and drop the image to the comments, or save it to your device and upload it to the comments.
The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mon | The Neighborhood | Poppa’s House | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | |
Tues | FBI | FBI: International | FBI: Most Wanted | ||
Wed | Survivor | The Summit | |||
Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
Fri | S.W.A.T. | Fire Country | Blue Bloods | ||
Sun | Tracker | The Equalizer | Encores |
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Tilts Renew
Tilts Cancel
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled