Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Brilliant Minds (0.28, 0.27-0.29)
The Irrational (0.31)
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.37, 0.36-0.38)
Chicago Med (0.35, 0.33-0.36)
Law & Order (0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago PD (0.35, 0.34-0.36)
Law & Order: SVU (0.40)
Saturday Night Live (0.84)
Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
Lopez vs Lopez
Night Court
St. Denis Medical
Suits: LA
Found: Last week, Found finally found its way to Thursdays, where it was originally supposed to premiere last season before the strikes changed NBC's plans. Things... did not go well. With a 0.40 lead-in from SVU - the strongest rating we've seen for a scripted show this season on NBC outside of SNL - Found drew just a 0.22, a new series low despite a huge time slot upgrade from the La Brea lead-in it had at the end of last season, and a seemingly more compatible lead-in than The Voice, which it aired behind for most of its first season. That's a retention rate of just 55%, worse than any of the other 10 PM dramas on NBC. That's not Found's only problem. Thanks to NBC's NBA deal for next season, they'll have less room next year than they have in this season - or any other recent season. Tuesdays will r now be occupied solely by NBA games, and with at least two hours already earmarked for The Voice and the Dick Wolf shows all most likely returning, scheduling space is very limited on NBC. Found was given a great show of confidence from NBC with this scheduling, and it bombed out of the starting gate. With so much less scheduling space, NBC will likely want to use that valuable slot on a new show rather than continuing to inflate an underperforming veteran. Its only redeeming factor thus far is that it's performing well on Peacock so far, ranking #1 on the service since its debut, even surpassing SVU. It's going to need to keep performing well there to have any shot at returning, and I doubt even that will be enough to keep it going on NBC. A move to Peacock is not entirely out of the question, but I highly doubt it returns on NBC, which will need to cancel several scripted shows this season. It starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION, and a heavy underdog for renewal.
Law & Order: Going into this season, I thought Dick Wolf's long-running crime procedural would be in some trouble. His Chicagos returned in rough shape, and Law & Order has traditionally been the lowest-rated of his five current NBC shows, going as low as 0.28 last season. With many shows returning down from their finales, I anticipated a similar return for Law & Order. Instead, it was one of the very few shows to return up from its finale, with a solid 0.36, higher than the premieres of two of the Chicagos and tying the ratings they drew last week. It was also just four hundredths below SVU, which is a far closer gap than the 0.15 gap between them for their premieres back in January. It's very possible - even likely - that Law & Order will drop back to its previous lows as the season continues, but this is a solid, and very welcomed, start for the show this season. Even with NBC needing to cut shows due to the NBA deal, there are several shows on the network that look poised to get the axe before it. The only hangup is that it remains a very poor performer on streaming, not once appearing in the top 10 on Peacock in the days following its premiere. That's why I think it's still the most vulnerable of Dick Wolf's shows on NBC, and not yet out of the clear. NBC did renew it the past few years, even though it was still a poor performer on streaming and in DVR then, too. I expect this revival to be relatively limited, but for now, it's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
The Irrational: In a bit of a surprise, The Irrational returned heavily up from its season finale, and only a few hundredths off of its series high. The 0.31 demo rating it registered on Tuesday was its highest rating in almost a year - since October 9, 2023 - when it aired its third episode. Though it did enough for NBC to renew it, The Irrational was far from a strong show in its first season, and it looked far weaker than Found. The tables have turned now, though, and and The Irrational is looking like the stronger show in linear ratings at the start of their sophomore seasons. It's only been a few days, so it's hard to gauge how it will hold up long-term, but the show is off to a decent start on Peacock, debuting in seventh place on the "Top TV Shows Today" list and rising today to third. While we don't have actual data for how many people are watching on there, that does suggest that a sizable number of Peacock subscribers are seeking the show out, and that people are interested in watching the show beyond just casual viewers those who tuned in when it aired this week. Even with this stronger-than-expected return, though, it's important to remember that this is still towards the bottom of NBC's drama lineup, only out-rating Found and Brilliant Minds at this point. With scheduling space on NBC becoming more scarce, that leaves the show still on the bubble, but it's in a much better position than I anticipated it being in just a few days ago. It LEANS RENEWAL for now, and will have to hold up well to keep that prediction.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
