It's another week for the NBC Renew/Cancel, and a show that's flown entirely under the radar this season finally gets a deeper analysis, while I also take a look at a struggling freshman amid a scheduling change. Plus, eight shows advance to the Elite Eight in the NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness tournament!
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.23, 0.17-0.29)
Grosse Pointe Garden Society (0.13, 0.09-0.17)
The Irrational (0.17, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Found (0.22, 0.18-0.29)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.31, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.40, 0.34-0.48)
Chicago Med (0.41, 0.33-0.48)
Chicago PD (0.36, 0.30-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.36, 0.29-0.49)
Saturday Night Live (0.84, 0.55-2.17)
Renewed:
Happy's Place
St. Denis Medical
Law & Order: This show has flown completely under the radar in the NBC Renew/Cancel this year, with the network's collection of freshman and sophomore flops getting all the attention and taking turns to be lambasted for their dwindling ratings. However, Law & Order has quietly had a pretty solid season. Last week was a series low for it, and a clearly poor showing, but for much of the season, it's been running neck-and-neck with SVU (and was even ahead of it one week), keeping NBC in a solid (if not terribly competitive) position on Thursdays at 8, even against a dynamic CBS comedy block and ABC's strong procedural 9-1-1. Law & Order is down 18% this season, one of the smaller year-to-year drops among NBC shows, with only Chicago Med dropping less. Law & Order has its good weeks and its bad weeks, but for the most part, it's a consistent 0.3 performer, never lighting the world on fire, but never a glaring problem for NBC, either. With so many of their shows struggling badly, NBC needs shows like Law & Order, which can fill a time slot for them and keep the lights on. Before this season began, I saw it as a sleeper pick for a cancellation, since NBC seemed to be moving away from the Law & Order franchise after effectively canceling Organized Crime and moving it to Peacock. Due to the show performing a bit better than I expected it to, and others performing worse, it's feeling pretty close to a lock for me. I do still think it will be the first of NBC's five current Dick Wolf shows to end, as it's their lowest-rated in both linear and streaming, but I think we're a few seasons away from that. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Grosse Pointe Garden Society: This week, it was announced that NBC was moving one of its newest shows from its current time slot on Sunday at 10 to a new time slot, Fridays at 8. It's hard to know just what this move means. Being moved to Fridays is typically seen as a burnoff, but Sundays at 10 is arguably the single-worst time slot on TV, so getting moved to an 8 PM slot (even on Friday) feels like a time slot upgrade, even if it's accidentally. It's quite possible that this move is happening because NBC's local affiliates aren't terribly enthusiastic about having a show getting low 0.1s leading into their Sunday night news broadcasts, and it'll do a lot less damage on Friday, because Dateline remains solid regardless of what airs before it. It's also possible that this is a genuine attempt at saving Grosse Pointe, though if that's the case, I think it's far more likely that that potential renewal would be for Peacock than for NBC, so that's not going to change my prediction for it. What we do know for sure is that the show rose to a 1.23 in L+7 multiplatform ratings for its premiere episode. That's a big gain from that abysmal 0.17 premiere rating, but it's not all that strong in general. Found, which is far from a hit itself, is averaging 1.1 in the same metric, over the course of of 10+ episodes in its second season. That 1.23 was the rating for just the series premiere rating of Grosse Pointe, and it will surely drop as the season goes along, as always happens for new shows. It'll surely continue to have large percentage gains in multiplatform ratings, but it's unlikely that these ratings will be anything to brag about as time goes on, and it'll probably be in-line with NBC's other struggling freshman shows. Regardless of this time slot move, and regardless of its delayed viewing gains, this remains a show that hit a 0.09 in week two, a show that's averaging 0.13 in the demo. It's just impossible to imagine NBC bringing it back after that. News of a new time slot isn't enough to keep it as anything but a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.
NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness Continues!
It's down to the elite eight in the NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness tournament! The last week was filled with voting on eight polls, as hundreds of votes were cast in matches featuring all sixteen ongoing NBC scripted series. While most of the network's ratings titans survived, we had a few upsets as well. #1 seed Saturday Night Live easily advanced to the second round, trouncing the #16 seed Grosse Pointe Garden Society. It'll face The Hunting Party in the Elite Eight, after the freshman drama managed a small upset against Happy's Place in the closes match of round one. Happy's Place led for most of the week, but a late-game surge by The Hunting Party pushed it ahead. With the most votes of any round one show, Law & Order: SVU advances easily over Lopez vs Lopez, which makes its second consecutive round one exit. SVU faces off against fellow Dick Wolf series Chicago PD in the Elite Eight. Chicago PD dispatched Found in round one. While Found went all the way to the Final Four last year, it struggled to keep this match competitive after drawing an incredibly tough round one competitor. Not everything was coming up Dick, however, as the biggest upset so far came with #15 seed The Irrational upending #2 seed Chicago Med's hopes of advancing, in a 20 point win. That avoids another face-off of Dick Wolf shows in the Elite Eight, as The Irrational faces Law & Order next, after Law & Order destroyed fellow legal show Night Court in round one. Chicago PD won't be the only Chicago to advance, however, as Chicago Fire easily triumphed over Suits LA to advance to the Elite Eight. And finally, St. Denis Medical keeps NBC's sitcom department represented, as it advances to round two after a fairly close win over Brilliant Minds. You can vote in all four Elite Eight matchups below, and help us find our Final Four. You can also vote in our polls for ABC, Fox, CW and CBS!
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | The Hunting Party | ||||
| Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | Deal or No Deal Island | The Irrational | ||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sun | The Americas | Suits LA | Grosse Pointe Garden Society | |||
What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments!
