CBS Renew/Cancel Week 19: March Comes In Like A Lion with Early Cancelations

The Ratings Junkie

Below are predictions for Week 19 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. Underneath that is a poll along with the interactive schedule, where you can create your own predictions. Let me know what you think by leaving a comment!

Prediction Changes
-FBI: International is is downgraded from Leans Renew to Canceled
-FBI: Most Wanted is downgraded from Leans Cancel to Canceled

-S.W.A.T. is downgraded from Likely Cancel to Canceled

-The Equalizer is downgraded from Tilts Cancel to Leans Cancel

-Watson is upgraded from Likely Cancel to Tilts Cancel

Prediction Key

Week 19 Predictions

FBI: International, FBI: Most Wanted, and S.W.A.T.

With Blue Bloods having previously come to an end, the number of veteran dramas canceled by CBS this season has increased to four. The cancelation of both FBI spinoffs confirms that even if CBS picks up FBI: CIA, the network will not have an all-FBI night next season. On a network that openly wants to fill its schedule with so-called brands, the FBI brand is one on the decline on CBS.

S.W.A.T. was looking good for a while, having been renewed for a 22-episode season that, unlike Season 7, was not preannounced as a final season. Over the past few weeks, it’s become clearer that CBS was ready to move on from S.W.A.T. despite still-solid ratings.

If NBCUniversal finds syndication potential in either FBI: Most Wanted or FBI: International, chances are high one or both will find their way onto NBC’s schedule. Similarly, the Sony-produced S.W.A.T. has a Netflix deal and has already been uncanceled twice. Time will tell if CBS’s intentional losses will be someone else’s gains.

Watson

CBS’s newest scripted series is one of four shows, and one of two dramas, that has not yet been renewed or canceled by the network. The medical drama is a reimagining of Sherlock Holmes’ sidekick. It partially shares a creative team with CBS’s previous Sherlock Holmes adaptation, Elementary. As you may recall, CBS was able to convince WGN America (now NewsNation) to pay $3 million an episode for the syndication rights to Elementary, a record-breaking deal at the time. CBS could be hoping lightning strikes twice on that front with Watson, even though Elementary did not perform particularly well in syndication and was not worth $3 million an episode. Watson also films in Vancouver, allowing for cheaper production costs. Many old CW shows filmed in Vancouver, as did one-time network favorite So Help Me Todd. Vancouver is also the filming location that allowed CBS to premiere an untested Fire Country on Fridays. It’s also produced by CBS Studios, and is being tested out in a few time slots via a prior rerun airing in the Monday at 10 pm time slot, as well as upcoming back-to-back reruns in the Tuesday at 9 and 10 pm time slots.

While Watson does have some extraneous factors going for it, the linear ratings are undeniably bad. This doesn’t appear to be another Elsbeth situation either, where a positively-reviewed spinoff of a Paramount+ series meets the Thursdays at 10 pm time slot on CBS. Watson’s reception has been mixed at best, and CBS has mot provided specifics about its streaming performance. It does tend to chart on Paramount+’s Top 10 list the day after it airs, which is a good sign, but not enough itself to push the show up to a renewal prediction.

However, as widely expected, CBS has not cared about linear ratings much when making their renewal decisions so far this season. Watson will be upgraded to a renewal prediction if we see CBS boast about its multi-platform ratings, the way they did with Elsbeth prior to its renewal last season. Until then, its upgrade will be to Tilts Cancel, still within cancelation territory.

The Equalizer

CBS went into this season with five dramas from outside studios. Tracker was a virtual lock for renewal, and scored its third season renewal in February. Three others, NBCUniversal’s FBI: International and FBI: Most Wanted along with Sony’s S.W.A.T., were canceled this past week. That leaves only NBCUniversal’s The Equalizer awaiting its fate.

With now some of the lowest ratings on the network, it’s likely not a matter of if The Equalizer will die in the Sunday night death slot, but when. Judging by CBS’s recent renewal and cancelation decisions, I’d wager they don’t really care to keep The Equalizer for another season, but will if NBCUniversal gives them a good enough deal. I’d also wager the spinoff isn’t about to be picked up, in a situation similar to ABC’s The Good Doctor and The Good Lawyer last season.

Much like with S.W.A.T., CBS seems ready to move on from The Equalizer. Both shows had their time slots downgraded, did about as good as they realistically could have in those new, undesirable time slots, yet now S.W.A.T. is canceled and The Equalizer is predicted to follow. It gets downgraded to Leans Cancel this week.

The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House

Despite CBS having made decisions on 14 of their 18 scripted series, and despite having ordered three new series for the fall schedule already, there are still several possibilities when it comes to the structure of CBS’s fall schedule. That’s because of the four shows with outstanding fates, two of them are half the network’s comedy slate.

There are signs CBS is sticking with two, and only two, hours of comedy next season. If they were cutting down to one hour of comedy, their comedy development efforts would be futile. If they were expanding to three, one would think that at the very least one of the existing Monday sitcoms, if not both would have been renewed by now. It’s unrealistic to expect an expansion without both The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House getting renewed, given CBS’s tendency to stick to three to five new shows on their fall schedule and already having ordered three. While that is still fair game to happen, it appears unlikely given both fully owned comedies are still awaiting their fates.

If The Neighborhood was as safe as its linear ratings suggest, it would have been renewed by now. Poppa’s House has also been a solid bottom-of-the-hour performer, but is not a powerhouse of its own the way Ghosts is on Thursday nights. It’s just as likely that CBS will look at the multi-platform ratings and replace its lowest-rated hour with a drama, then having to decide if they want to expand the Thursday comedy block. Both The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House remain in cancelation prediction territory.

Poll

Interactive Schedule

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	9:30	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS		NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International		FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Survivor			The Amazing Race
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock		Elsbeth
Fri	NCIS: Sydney		Fire Country		S.W.A.T.
Sun	Tracker		Watson		The Equalizer