Below are the Week 22 predictions for CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. Underneath that is voting for the CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness Final Four and an interactive schedule, where you can create and share your own predictions. Let us know what you think in the comments!
Prediction Changes-Watson is upgraded from Leans Renew to Renewed
-The Equalizer is upgraded from Leans Cancel to Tilts Cancel
Key
Week 22 Predictions
Watson and the Growing Importance of Ownership
CBS handed out yet another early renewal this past week, leaving only two scripted shows on the bubble. Freshman midseason drama Watson’s renewal prospects were looking increasingly solid in recent weeks, due mostly to all the promotion CBS has continued to give it.
The primary reason Watson was renewed was not its ratings. When you take out the football-inflated premiere, it’s one of CBS’s lowest-rated series in Live + Same Day. The fact the network hasn’t revealed any multi-platform viewing figures beyond the premiere is also concerning. For the airing prior to its renewal, Watson actually ticked down from the previous week in viewership and the Adults 18-49 demo despite nonstop promotion during the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Once again if you take out Watson’s premiere, CBS has now renewed four of their five lowest-rated scripted series in the Live + Same Day Adults 18-49 demo, with Watson joining the previous renewals of NCIS: Origins, NCIS: Sydney, and Elsbeth. They have the opportunity to renew all five should The Equalizer return for another season, and the only reason The Equalizer is one of their five lowest-rated series to begin with is it was relegated become Watson’s lead-out at 10 pm.
The renewals of NCIS: Origins, NCIS: Sydney, Elsbeth, and Watson would have been unthinkable just five to ten years ago, yet all four were predicted to be renewed at the time of their renewals this season. In the case of Elsbeth, gains in multi-platform viewership makes up for lackluster linear ratings. However, the rest benefit from an era where in-house produced franchises and IPs rule, especially if they can be produced at an affordable cost.
The bottom line is, Watson might not be the strongest show on CBS’s schedule from a ratings standpoint, but for now, it has internal support and is not among their least profitable. It didn’t really warrant an early renewal, but they might as well get it done now if they were going to renew it anyway.
The Equalizer
It may appear questionable why I would upgrade The Equalizer the same week as one more spot was taken on the 2025-26 TV schedule. However, The Equalizer is only one short final season away from the 88 episodes typically needed to be desirable for a syndication deal, which should give NBCUniversal to fight for the show in negotiations with CBS. NBCUniversal does have a pretty rough track record with this recently though, losing both Magnum P.I. (which NBC saved for that very purpose) and FBI: International with episode counts in the high 70s. Both were incorrect predictions on the premises that NBCUniversal would be able to secure a final season to get the episode counts to 88. I’d like to think I’ve learned my lesson and won’t make the same mistake a third time with The Equalizer. However, I’d also like to think for their sake that NBCUniversal has learned *their* lesson as well.
The Equalizer’s upgrade from Leans Cancel to Tilts Cancel comes primarily from timing. If CBS had absolutely no intentions to bring it back for another season, they would have canceled it by now. If they desperately wanted it on their schedule, negotiations would have progressed and they would have renewed it by now. Instead, it’s purely on the bubble. If NBCUniversal makes it cheap enough, it could come back for a short final season. If not, it will likely be the sole case of the season of a veteran series with an abrupt cancelation.
Helping The Equalizer’s chances is the fact that CBS already let go of four veteran dramas this season — Blue Bloods, FBI: International, FBI: Most Wanted, and S.W.A.T. Of the shows they’ve renewed, there are no obvious candidates for veteran dramas to end next season. A renewal of The Equalizer would change that. Hurting The Equalizer’s chances is the fact CBS is clearly prioritizing shows they own over shows that deliver solid ratings heading into the Skydance sale, and The Equalizer fits neither of those criteria. While The Equalizer is ultimately predicted to be canceled, it is truly on the bubble.
Poppa’s House and Long Lead Marketing
Poppa’s House was another show that got promoted during CBS’s coverage of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, with star Damon Wayans Jr. talking directly to viewers about how the sitcom will air in the fall.
No, Poppa’s House has not been renewed for a second season. I’m referring to a promo that aired during last year’s tournament, before Poppa’s House premiered. A holdover from the 2023-24 TV season due to the strikes, CBS talked about Poppa’s House as a show fit for their “long lead marketing” strategy, gradually introducing it months in advance of its premiere.
Despite Poppa’s House holding well from The Neighborhood in linear ratings and improving on Bob Hearts Abishola’s multi-platform ratings for the first three episodes, CBS seems to have given up on the freshman sitcom awfully fast. It hasn’t received any promotion during this season’s tournament, even in an instance where a new episode is scheduled for the following night. Being a linear time slot hit hasn’t been enough for Poppa’s House, with CBS seemingly having given up on the show. Unless they pass on all their comedy pilots, there’s little chance of it returning for a second season.
The real question is if Poppa’s House actually deserves to be one-and-done. It’s hard to envision many people being converted into Poppa’s House viewers five months later due to a promo that aired last March, and much easier to envision people tuning into the series had it received more promotion while it was actually on the air. This long-lead marketing strategy may work for something like a Super Bowl lead-out show in Tracker, but it has not panned out for a traditional multi-cam sitcom like Poppa’s House.
CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness Final Four Voting
Four shows remain in contention to win this year’s CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness: 5 Seed FBI, 7 Seed NCIS, 14 Seed S.W.A.T., and 16 Seed The Equalizer. Despite having the second and third-most votes in the Sweet Sixteen, both 2 Seed Tracker and 8 Seed Matlock have been eliminated.
FBI had no trouble beating Ghosts, getting over three quarters of the total vote. The same cannot be said for spinoff FBI: International, which received just 7% of the vote in its matchup against S.W.A.T. Matlock was no match for The Equalizer despite having the second-highest number of votes in the previous round, while NCIS comfortably defeated last year’s runner-up in Tracker.
S.W.A.T. and NCIS will face off in a Final Four rematch, which S.W.A.T. won by a 90 percentage point margin last season. The Equalizer will also make its second consecutive appearance in the Final Four. This time, it will face off against FBI, which was last in the Final Four in 2023. Neither show has made it to the championship round before.
Can S.W.A.T. make a second consecutive appearance in the championship round, or will NCIS win the rematch? Which of FBI and The Equalizer will make its first ever appearance? Vote in the polls below to make your picks! Voting closes on Saturday, April 5 at 11:59 pm.
Interactive Renew/Cancel Prediction Schedule
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | Poppa’s House | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | |
| Tues | FBI | FBI: International | FBI: Most Wanted | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | NCIS: Sydney | Fire Country | S.W.A.T. | ||
| Sun | Tracker | Watson | The Equalizer | ||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Tilts Renew
Tilts Cancel
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled