It's a big week for the NBC Renew/Cancel, as two shows see prediction changes this week in opposite directions. Keep reading to see which show finally finds it way to the green and which show is looking completely wilted.
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.23, 0.17-0.29)
Grosse Pointe Garden Society (0.13, 0.09-0.17)
The Irrational (0.18, 0.10-0.31)
Leans Cancellation:
Suits LA (0.21, 0.17-0.24)
Leans Renewal:
Found (0.22, 0.18-0.29)
Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.31, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.40, 0.35-0.48)
Chicago Med (0.41, 0.33-0.48)
Chicago PD (0.36, 0.30-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.36, 0.29-0.49)
Saturday Night Live (0.88, 0.55-2.17)
Renewed:
Happy's Place
St. Denis Medical
Found: I don't think Found is doing well in its second season. With a 0.22 average behind a strong and compatible lead-in (which it's retaining just 61% of), it's a big disappointment after the promise it showed last season. Even with SVU fairly consistently drawing ratings in the high 0.3 range, Found is usually rating below any of its performances last season, even those behind 0.2 drama La Brea. Despite finding its performance disappointing, I'd be mildly surprised at this point if it were canceled. Outside of the five Dick Wolf dramas - several of which have posted above-average declines themselves - NBC's dramas are an absolute disaster. Sunday dramas Suits LA and Grosse Pointe Garden Society are just the latest misfires in a long line of NBC disasters this season. Not one new drama has worked in any way, and both sophomore dramas look lousy themselves. Found is the only series from NBC's sextet of flop dramas that doesn't look like a total bust so far. It's one of the highest-rated of the group, and is the only one that has maintained a profile on Peacock (and even in Found's case, its return to the Peacock charts is only a recent development, happening in the last few weeks after missing from the chart for a few months). A recent Deadline interview with Found's showrunner reported that the drama boasts a 1.14 average in MP+35. Much like its linear ratings, that's not a terribly impressive number, but it's decent enough, and is most likely higher than the rest of this crop is averaging in that metric. Also bolstering my prediction change is Deadline's reporting this week that NBC wasn't looking to develop any new dramas for fall. Even with Sunday taken up by NFL (then NBA in spring) and NBA claiming Tuesdays, cancellations of all six struggling dramas would leave two hours open on NBC's schedule, assuming the assumed renewals of the Dick Wolf dramas all go forward. I didn't think premiering two new dramas in fall was that ridiculous of a notion (after all, they managed to do so in a season struck by strikes), but it's clear now that this isn't the intention. Even still, NBC has other options. Deadline also reported that several comedies are in development with consideration for fall, including a project from Tina Fey. With Tuesdays now off the table for programing, I assumed NBC would cut comedy from two hours to one, but with Happy's Place and St. Denis Medical both looking stronger than any of their newer dramas, it is possible they keep both comedy hours. If they do, that'll take up one of those two open hours. Also a remote possibility is NBC saving one of the two recently-canceled FBI dramas. They produce them both, and they're from their favorite producer ever, Dick Wolf. I'm not sure how possible that even is (it's rare to see shows move networks, with Magnum PI and 9-1-1 two of the very few to do so in the last decade without taking at least a season off), but those FBIs do rate solidly, stronger than any of NBC's bubble dramas, and not much differently from their own Dick Wolf series. Saving one or both of these series would present another challenge for the dramas trying to get to the right side of the bubble. The many question marks about NBC's schedule leave me not entirely secure in predicting renewal for Found, but I do doubt that NBC cancels all of their freshman and sophomore dramas without any firm plans for new dramas next season, so I'm guessing renewal for the drama from that group that's looking the best so far, even if NBC only partially owns it. It LEANS RENEWAL.
Grosse Pointe Garden Society: This week, NBC's new Sunday night dramas aired their second episodes. After dismal starts, things were unlikely to be encouraging in week two regardless, but airing against the Oscars, up 20% this year, made it nearly guaranteed to be ugly. Grosse Pointe Garden Society found a way to somehow deliver a rating even uglier than I could have imagined, delivering just a 0.09 for NBC in its terrible 10 PM slot. Suits LA bombed too, and was down 30% from last week, but Grosse Point tanked roughly 45%, and held onto just 53% of its terrible lead-in. I don't want to extrapolate too much from a rating against the Oscars, that's why I'm not going to draw any conclusions about Suits LA just yer, but there's no way to spin a 0.09. I downgraded sophomore series The Irrational after a similar abysmal showing, but even that show managed to avoid slipping below the 0.10 mark. This rating by Grosse Pointe matches the repeat airing of it that aired just a single day prior, at 8 PM on Saturday, and while I don't take total viewers into account much when it comes to NBC predictions, that repeat actually had more viewers. Sunday's rating was a disastrous result, and some ratings are inexcusable, regardless of the competition. Grosse Pointe Garden Society was already of life support last week, and I tried to give it the benefit of the doubt by not throwing it straight to certain cancellation, but this seals the deal. Not only is it a CERTAIN CANCELLATION, it displaces The Irrational as the most certain of what is bound to be a plentiful amount of NBC cancellations this season.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | The Hunting Party | ||||
| Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | Deal or No Deal Island | The Irrational | ||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC | |||
| Sun | The Americas | Suits LA | Grosse Pointe Garden Society | |||
What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
