ABC Renew/Cancel Week 23: Home Economics Doesn’t Have a Home on ABC Anymore

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, the focus is back on a few of ABC's fall series that were replaced at midseason, with both trending towards a permanent end. Plus, my final thoughts on Alaska Daily following last week's finale.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.23, 0.17-0.32)
The Company You Keep (0.26, 0.23-0.29)

Leans Cancellation:
Big Sky (0.25, 0.19-0.31)
Home Economics (0.35, 0.30-0.41)

Leans Renewal:
Not Dead Yet (0.33, 0.25-0.44)

Likely Renewal:
The Good Doctor (0.32, 0.25-0.39)
The Rookie: Feds (0.30, 0.21-0.44)
Will Trent (0.30, 0.25-0.38)

Certain Renewal:
The Conners (0.51, 0.39-0.61)
The Rookie (0.43, 0.27-0.64)
Station 19 (0.49, 0.44-0.53)

Already Canceled/Ending:
A Million Little Things
The Goldbergs

Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
Grey's Anatomy 

Home Economics: Any regular reader of this column knows that one of the shows I've been most undecided this season is Home Economics. It's a show that has such glaring cases both for and against a renewal. On the one hand, this was arguably its most impressive ratings performance thus far, with a 1% year-to-year increase that has left it as one of just four shows to rise from last season in the demo. On the other hand, those ratings still are decidedly mediocre, with its 0.35 average rating as ABC's #4 comedy, above just one other sitcom. It also had a shortened third season, which is never an ideal situation for a veteran show, especially when it had a full season last year. ABC has been so supportive of this show, and they've given it time to find an audience despite ratings that spelled cancellation from the start, but the real question is whether it's found enough of an audience. Yes, its L+SD demo rating is higher than Not Dead Yet, its time slot replacement, but I don't think it's going to win that battle in the end. ABC has been touting Not Dead Yet's strong multiplatform performance recently, calling it their strongest comedy launch since The Conners with over ten million viewers in its first month of release. ABC also has a few promising comedy pilots in development that have prolific sitcom veterans attached to them, and at least one of those comedies seems destined for a fall slot. Even though The Goldbergs has been canceled already, I don't envision ABC going into next season with two bubble comedies that have middling ratings, because there doesn't look to be any space. The momentum seems to me with Not Dead Yet at this point. Home Economics is not dead yet (pun intended), but it's getting there. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Big Sky: Also looking in worse shape is Big Sky. This one I'm even more unsure of than Home Economics, but I'm returning to my previous cancellation prediction. I upgraded it to a renewal prediction amid an onslaught of questionable renewals of short-run shows like La Brea and The Cleaning Lady, made by networks that were clearly trying to do what they could to prepare for a strike. Now, it's April, and we've heard nothing about Big Sky being renewed. With the strike potentially taking place as soon as the beginning of May, there's clearly no time to give Big Sky an "early" renewal and get a jump on production for next season. ABC's nowhere near as prepared for a strike as the other networks, so I don't see them renewing this show as any sort of emergency strike backup. That was the main reason for a prediction upgrade last time, and that argument is fading. Also working against it is the fact that ABC's midseason slate is doing better than Big Sky, with Will Trent a clear favorite for renewal and even The Company You Keep rating above Big Sky. There's a lot working against Big Sky, more than ever before, and I think its time is up. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Alaska Daily: I can't wrap up this week's post without giving a mention to Alaska Daily, which wrapped up its first season last week. The show avoided going below the 0.20 mark for the entirely of its second half, but that stopped on finale night, with a 0.19 for its season (and likely series) capper. That 0.19 its near its 0.17 series low, in spite of Grey's Anatomy rising from its ratings from earlier weeks. It's ABC's lowest-rated series, save for the already-ending A Million Little Things, and that finale performance is a good reminder of just how weak it really is. It ends its run as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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