NBC Renew/Cancel Week 17: The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins is on the Rise

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, a new comedy enters the fray, which may in turn impact the odds of NBC's other new comedy. Plus, one of NBC's long-running staples returns this week on very shaky ground.

Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.13, 0.11-0.18)

Likely Cancellation:

The Hunting Party (0.14, 0.10-0.17)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.21, 0.11-0.61)
The Wall (0.14, 0.12-0.19)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.22, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins (0.88, 0.37-1.38)
The Voice (0.24, 0.24-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.33, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.29, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.60, 0.43-0.70)

Already Renewed:
Happy's Place (0.24, 0.18-0.26)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.37)

The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins: The launch of NBC's newest comedy has been a bit unorthodox, with a post-NFL premiere that came more than a month before its official debut on Monday nights. This allowed it to both receive post-NFL sampling and benefit from a have push during the Winter Olympics, as Reggie Dinkins was the lone post-Olympic debut NBC has on their schedule. While it had absolutely everything working in its favor this week - including airing at 8 PM and getting the local lead-in - it absolutely delivered. The 8 PM episode, simply a repeat of the episode that aired behind an NFL game last month, got a 0.35, which is the second-highest rating of any NBC comedy this season not boosted by sports. That is, until the episode that followed it, which rose to a 0.37 in the demo - tying St. Denis Medical's 0.37 from back in January. While not as high as some of the top comedies on CBS and ABC, it's a major success for an NBC comedy, especially one at the bottom of the hour. For the first time in many years, NBC comedy looks very promising. They may have a strong Monday night hour with St. Denis (which is already renewed) and Reggie Dinkins, and Happy's Place is at least solid enough on Friday nights. NBC comedy looks healthier than the drama department at this point, which is entirely held together by Dick Wolf. These NBC sitcoms may well be NBC's path forward in terms of finding new long-term hits. It's very early to tell if Reggie Dinkins will hold up, but a renewal seems like an extremely safe bet so far. Not only was its premiere rating very encouraging, it's also from NBC's most prized names in comedy: creator Robert Carlock and executive producer Tina Fey. It was a different era back then, but their names being attached was enough to get Great News a renewal despite paltry ratings, and they got Mr. Mayor a second season despite being only a modest performer. Their involvement likely only helps boost Reggie's chances, though if it performs at the level of this premiere, it's not going to need anyone's help to get by. If NBC is forced to choose between Reggie and Stumble due to having limited room on their schedule, the choice is pretty clear right now. Everything is lining up in Reggie Dinkins' favor at this point, and it starts as a likely renewal.

Stumble: It was a mixed week for Stumble. Its renewal odds arguably stumbled a bit as Reggie Dinkins got off to a stronger start than anticipated, with the delta between the two shows proving quite large so far. With only four comedy slots likely on the schedule next year for NBC and at least one new show essentially guaranteed to be ordered of their three high-profile pilots, the room left on the schedule is very limited. Stumble was already left out in the cold after the other two comedies were renewed, and didn't have its order extended (though its premise arguably works better for limited seasons, anyway), so it does seem tom be a lower priority. NBC also stuck it in a terrible Friday at 8:30 slot behind a show it's not at all compatible with, so Reggie Dinkins felt like the priority over it from the start. Still, they did give it an Olympic lead-in last week, and its 0.61 post-Olympic rating was a decent sampling, though it remains to be seen how many of those new viewers will stick around (it did nothing to boost the show on Peacock, where it didn't chart at all after the new episode was aired). That rating is encouraging enough (42% retention isn't stellar, but it's respectable enough for the 10th episode of a semi-serialized comedy behind a huge lead-in) that it could still prompt NBC to want to see how it does with a better lead-in (which they somewhat tested with those repeats on Mondays). It can share the 8:30 slot with Reggie Dinkins, so it's going to come down to how much NBC likes its comedy pilots (a PI single-cam from the Brooklyn Nine-Nine creator seems specifically tailored for that slot) and factors we don't see, like streaming (which doesn't seem promising from public data, but The Hunting Party and Brilliant Minds both looked surprisingly solid in post-season MP+35 ratings last season). It's still a tough call here, and NBC seems neither hopelessly devoted to Stumble nor totally done with it. My bet is that, in an era where NBC comedy is so much stronger than it has been in recent years, they look to move forward with new series that have more potential. Stumble still leans cancellation.

The Voice: Is it time for The Voice to go the way of cassettes and CDs? It sure seems like it. It once again had its lowest-rated premiere ever, despite the return of high-profile fan-favorite coaches in Kelly Clarkson, John Legend, and Adam Levine. A 0.31 rating isn't a disaster for a show that aired in the 10 PM hour, and it sure beats what Brilliant Minds would've done in that slot if it hadn't been yanked from the schedule, but we're not talking about inexpensive reality filler here. The Voice is very expensive for a reality series, and this season has already undergone major cost-cutting measures, with one less coach than usual, fewer artists moving past the auditions, and the entire season being pre-recorded, as those live shows (which have already been majorly reduced in recent years) are quite pricey. NBC's taking a gamble here that those changes will be worth the reduction in cost, but there's no guarantee that the audience will respond positively to them - they involve major shakeups in the concept of the show, which has always been interactive and utilized audience voting (like most other reality talent series). It's not as if this show has far to fall. It was down to a 0.20 last season without shaking up its format, and it's at only a 0.3 for what is always the highest-rated portion of the season. I think NBC is going to have some difficult decisions about this show in the very near future. A milestone 30th season (which will be the next season to air) may be a good time to send it off (Fox did a similar thing with season 15 of American Idol). Even if they aren't ready to end it, we're really at the point where cutting it down to one season a year is an absolute necessity. This show isn't strong enough to sustain two seasons per year, and it's not really strong enough to be a lead-in to a new drama series, which makes it a real hassle to schedule around. A renewal this season seems very likely, because I don't envision NBC ending its run in such an unceremonious way, but its long-term future is looking shaky. It's a likely renewal, but it might look a lot different next season.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	Reggie Dinkins	The Voice	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	The Hunting Party
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	Encores
Sun	Sunday Night Basketball