Below are renewal and cancelation predictions for scripted shows with outstanding fates on Hulu, Disney+, Peacock, and Paramount+. Underneath that is an analysis, broken down by streaming service. Predictions are made primarily based on how accessible a show is on its respective streamer, alongside other unique factors that as discussed in the analysis. The ‘Main Home Page Appearances’ and ‘Main Originals Page Appearances’ categories refers to how many times a show appears in non-customized home page and originals page sliders without having to swipe through those sliders. This gives a broad picture of how prominently a show is featured. ‘Overall Home Page Appearances’ factors in all shows featured in the sliders. This prediction method has been developed and refined over the past couple years. It’s now been slimmed down to two categories: the shows in red are predicted to be canceled as of the time of publishing, and the shows in green are predicted to be renewed. All data was collected on Saturday, November 30. Let us know what you think in the comments!
Every show on Hulu with an outstanding fate is currently predicted to be canceled. The most clear cancelation is animated series Hit-Monkey, which has minimal presence on Hulu four and a half months after it wrapped its second season. The MCU cartoon was barely renewed for Season 2 to begin with, and outlasted Marvel Television. Also looking to be in grave danger is American Horror Stories, the FX on Hulu spinoff of American Horror Story. The series just wrapped its third season in October, an 8-episode season split in two parts spanning two separate calendar years.
How To Die Alone is Hulu’s lone comedy yet to be renewed or canceled (of the three). It aired in September and is a product of the now-defunct ABC Signature. It is predicted to be canceled, as is drama Tell Me Lies. The latter’s second season premiered in September, almost two full years after its series premiere, and is not currently one of the priority titles on Hulu.
Disney+
Only one original scripted series on Disney+ is neither renewed nor canceled: Christmas comedy The Santa Clauses, starring Tim Allen and based on the popular film franchise. Disney+’s traditional series offerings have slimmed recently, as they shift focus to miniseries, movies, and integration with Hulu. After airing in the lead-up to Christmas in both 2022 and 2023, The Santa Clauses is not producing a third season this year. Disney+ is including it as an offering in their holiday collection, but is not featuring it prominently on their home page. It’s expected to be canceled, as it’s unclear what a third season of The Santa Clauses would achieve from a cost-benefit standpoint.
Peacock
Peacock is by far the streamer with the most shows with fates up in the air, with eight scripted series yet to be renewed or canceled. Three of those — Bel-Air, Those About To Die, and Based on a True Story — are predicted to score renewals eventually. The other five may not be as lucky.
Based on a True Story is being prominently featured on Peacock, with its 8-episode second season having just dropped on November 21. It’s featured on Peacock’s home page five times without even having to scroll through the sliders, and a sixth upon scrolling. While Bel-Air has not aired since September, it still has a solid presence on Peacock. Having already been the first and only Peacock scripted original so far to secure a third season renewal, it looks to be on track for a fourth season as well. Also predicted to be renewed is big-budget historical drama Those About To Die, which Amazon Prime Video distributes internationally. The series managed to make its way onto the Nielsen streaming chart when it aired this past summer. However, high viewership upon premiere is not a total guarantee of renewal. Other high-rated big budget streaming originals have been canceled this season, such as Paramount+’s Halo and Disney+’s The Acolyte.
Two dramas with similar exposure on Peacock that did not capture the same kind of viewership are predicted to be canceled: Teacup and Hysteria! Both series are much more recent, having aired in October, whereas Those About To Die is maintaining this presence several months after it first aired. Peacock is not known for being lenient with renewals, and are likely willing to let go of both new dramas. Dr. Death is also predicted to be canceled, having aired its second season over 11 months ago and with a now-minimal presence on Peacock.
Animated series In The Know also has minimal presence on Peacock, having aired its six-episode first season in January. With no news on it and little in-app promotion, it does not look likely to secure a second season renewal. In a similar boat is Steph Curry’s comedy Mr. Throwback, which premiered solidly coinciding with the Olympics but may not have a strong audience of its own. It was reported 77% of its early viewers also watched the Olympics, and its presence has diminished over time.
Paramount+
In the past, Paramount+ has tended to cancel shows more often than they would renew them. Right now though, most of the shows that have not yet been renewed or canceled are some of their biggest series — and don’t have the extraordinarily high production costs that Halo had. Mayor of Kingstown, Tulsa King, and Lioness all hail from Taylor Sheridan, the co-creator of Yellowstone who Paramount+ (and Paramount in general) has grown to foster a close relationship with.
Tulsa King star Sylvester Stallone has recently signed on for two more seasons, making a renewal announcement only a formality. A writer’s room has also opened for a fourth season of Mayor of Kingstown, with the program’s showrunner re-upping his deal with Paramount’s MTV Entertainment Studios. While neither have been officially renewed, they are on a clear path to renewal. That leaves Lioness, which has a solid amount of exposure on Paramount+ and has by and large been in the upper echelon’s of their Top 10 TV shows list throughout November.
A potential question mark is the revival of Frasier, which recently wrapped its second season. It still has a healthy amount of exposure on Paramount+, making a renewal look rather likely. Plus, the Frasier IP is seemingly a big hit for Paramount+, and adding on more episodes to the revival will only help. I don’t expect it to last nearly as long as the original though; see the iCarly revival’s cancelation after three seasons despite seemingly strong viewership and exposure.
The lone Paramount+ series not predicted to score a renewal is Ark: The Animated Series, which had a surprise premiere in March after years of delays. It is not featured prominently, and is not one of the streamer’s higher-profile titles.