It's the final ABC Renew/Cancel of 2024. It's been an odd year, filled with shortened, strike-delayed seasons and another cut to ABC's list of scripted offerings, including a comedy lineup that almost vanished entirely. One constant has been Abbott Elementary, which takes the spotlight this week, as it headed into a holiday break.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Doctor Odyssey (0.29, 0.22-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Already Ending:
The Conners
Yet to Premiere:
The Rookie
Shifting Gears
Will Trent
Abbott Elementary: Last week, Abbott Elementary became the final ABC scripted show to wrap for the year. It did so in stellar fashion, with a season high for the first of two episodes aired in the 8 PM hour, and a minuscule drop for the 8:30 episode. Airing behind The Golden Bachelorette was obviously not the right spot for this show at all, something everyone besides ABC could've seen coming. It hit several lows behind that show, but a strong time slot helps to show just what this show is capable of doing in linear viewing. Its 0.41/0.39 midseason finale is the strongest of the five midseason finales for ABC's scripted shows, and the highest finale rating of the fall other than Dancing with the Stars (Shark Tank and 20/20 are yet to air their finales, but while solid shows in their own right, both seem quite unlikely to get anywhere near this level). It's a great way to cap what's been a strange year for Abbott, which had a rough spring, mostly on its own merit, and an up-and-down fall, largely thanks to a horribly incompatible lead-in. It'll air at 8:30 starting early next year, behind Tim Allen's Shifting Gears. The two comedies are quite different, one a multi-cam family comedy starring multi-cam regular Tim Allen and the other a single-cam workplace ensemble comedy, but it should still make for a better pairing than The Golden Bachelorette and Abbott, a total misfire. Even if Abbott didn't have such good news linear-wise, there's even better news for the acclaimed veteran comedy. Last week, Variety published multiplatform ratings averages for the top ten programs on broadcast TV. Sitting at #2? Abbott Elementary, with an incredibly-impressive 2.15 in MP+7 ratings. That's higher than top-rated linear series like 9-1-1, Ghosts and Matlock, and much higher than broadcast TV's #1 show in L+SD ratings, Dancing with the Stars. It trails only High Potential, ABC's breakout crime procedural. ABC only co-produces Abbott Elementary, but parent company Disney owns a 67% stake in Hulu, the streaming service Abbott Elementary streams on. With Abbott bringing in so many viewers to watch it on Hulu, it's hard to imagine ABC letting it go anytime soon. As both a linear success and a streaming titan, Abbott Elementary is the safest of the very limited scripted crop on ABC, and is certainly on the nice list this Christmas. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
The Rookie: I almost never discuss shows that aren't in-season, because it's very rare to get any actual news on them that could change my pre-season predictions. That being said, we did get a bit of news with The Rookie last week, as it was announced that ABC is developing a new spinoff of the series. The first spinoff, Feds, obviously bombed and, while seeming to have a chance at renewal for a while, was canceled after a drawn-out decision. The new show will be much more like The Rookie, following a male cop in Washington state entering a new phase of life. That's basically the exact premise of the original Rookie, and almost feels like a way to replace the original series, keeping the Rookie universe alive while also cutting costs. The Rookie is entering its seventh season, a time when shows regularly get canceled due to rising costs and cast salaries that no longer justify renewals, even for successful shows. This show had a rough decline last season, and averaged a 0.31 in the demo against a 0.38 league average, prompting ABC to bench it and then downgrade it to 10 PM this season. While a spinoff could mean that ABC is higher on this partially-owned show than I believed, this news does not change my pre-season cancellation prediction for it. Look for The Rookie to take center stage in the first update of the ABC Renew/Cancel in 2025, when it'll get an official prediction after its premiere ratings come in.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | The Golden Bachelorette | Abbott Elementary | What Would You Do? | |||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | Doctor Odyssey | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!
PollMaker