CBS Renew/Cancel Special Edition 2024: A Look Back At Fall 2024

The Ratings Junkie

This special edition of CBS Renew/Cancel recaps how predictions have changed since the start of the season, and looks ahead to what to watch for in the new year. Underneath that is a poll as well as an interactive schedule, where you can create and share your own predictions. Let me know what you think in the comments!

Sitcoms

Sitcom predictions have stayed largely unchanged so far, with The Neighborhood, Poppa’s House, and Ghosts all retaining their Week 1 predictions through Week 10. Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage began the season with a Leans Renew prediction, and was quickly bumped up to Likely Renew. By Week 8, it joined fellow Thursday sitcom Ghosts in the Certain Renew category.

Be on the lookout for news about comedy development. How CBS judges new pilots like DMV, Eternally Yours, and Zarna could be the deciding factor between how many of their current sitcoms make it out of this season alive. Poppa’s House in particular is likely competing with pilots for a spot on the 2025-26 schedule.

If this is the final season of The Neighborhood, it’s very likely CBS will announce it well in advance of the finale. The biggest question here is if it can run out the clock on its Likely Cancel prediction.

NCIS & FBI Franchises

Predictions for the FBI franchise have been clear-cut so far this season. The mother show has been renewed through the 2026-27 TV season, making the conversation solely about its two spinoffs. Older spinoff FBI: Most Wanted, which this season crossed the traditionally desirable 88 episode threshold for syndication, is predicted to be in danger with a Leans Cancel prediction. The slightly younger spinoff, FBI: International, has a season to go to reach that threshold and has spent the season so far predicted as Leans Renew.

The clearest scenario where FBI: Most Wanted gets renewed is one in which CBS has a rough midseason. Perhaps Watson is a failure, NCIS: Origins keeps declining, and both S.W.A.T. and The Equalizer stumble in their moves to 10 pm. At that point, the all-FBI night becomes the least of CBS’s worries, and NBCUniversal likely negotiates renewals for both spinoffs.

Predictions for the NCIS franchise have been less clear-cut. NCIS has been stable, remaining in the Likely Renew category all season so far. However, new spinoff NCIS: Origins has bounced around between three different categories, reaching Likely Renew in Week 2 before becoming a Tilts Renew by Week 7.

I’m not fully convinced all three of NCIS, NCIS: Origins, and NCIS: Sydney will be back next season, given CBS’s recent track record of canceling NCIS series. Having been off the air since January and airing in a much different time slot and environment, the limited NCIS: Sydney is still a bit of an unknown. If it rates any higher than Origins, the new prequel may find itself in trouble.

Unscripted

CBS delayed the start of their scripted season until late October, which in turn delayed the return of CBS Renew/Cancel. By Week 1, there were already more than ratings available to confidently predict Survivor as a Certain Renew for the 2025-26 season, and The Summit as Certain Cancel. The latter being left out of CBS’s multi-platform ratings press release was arguably the final nail in the coffin for its future, whether it be on the fall schedule or used as summer programming.

Non-Bubble Non-Franchise Dramas

Two dramas, Tracker and Fire Country, have kept their Certain Renew predictions all season so far. I expect renewals to be little more than formalities for both. Matlock was renewed very early into its first season, starting off as Likely Renew in Week 1 before joining FBI in the Renewed category. Long-running drama Blue Bloods, which just finished airing its two-part 14th season, is so far the only show confirmed to not be returning on the 2025-26 schedule.

Bubble Non-Franchise Dramas

The Equalizer, S.W.A.T., and Elsbeth have all seen prediction changes this season. S.W.A.T. and Elsbeth are cautiously predicted to be renewed, while The Equalizer is predicted to be in danger of cancelation. S.W.A.T. started the season in Likely Renew before settling into Leans Renew in Week 2, making it the most stable of the three series and also the only one that hasn’t delved into Tilts territory. The Equalizer has been on a downward path since the beginning, starting at Leans Renew before getting downgraded to Tilts Renew in Week 3, and again to Tilts Cancel in Week 5. Elsbeth, meanwhile, is on a slight upward trajectory, starting off in Tilts Renew for three of the first four weeks and remaining in Leans Renew since Week 5.

The Equalizer and S.W.A.T. will both be changing time slots midseason, the former to Sundays at 10 pm and the latter to Fridays at 10 pm. How they perform in their new time slots will likely play a large role in whether or not they get renewed. Sony has proven to be a masterful negotiator with S.W.A.T., saving it from cancelation twice already, making it awfully tough to bet against the series by default. The Equalizer too could get saved by negotiations should NBCUniversal choose, and should the ratings not be abysmal. Elsbeth will purely be a question of if the clearly-renewable multi-platform ratings are enough to make up for the clearly-cancelable linear ratings.

Poll

Interactive Schedule

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	9:30	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	Poppa’s House	NCIS		NCIS: Origins
Tues	FBI		FBI: International		FBI: Most Wanted
Wed	Survivor			The Summit
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock		Elsbeth
Fri	S.W.A.T.		Fire Country		Blue Bloods
Sun	Tracker		The Equalizer		Encores