Below are predictions for Week 9 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis of key shows. Underneath that is a poll as well as an interactive schedule, where you can create and share your own predictions. This week, the prediction table also includes new multi-platform Live + 35 day viewership figures (mil.) as released by CBS. The year-to-year trend is listed next to the viewership figure, with the new shows being compared to the previous time slot occupant. Note that CBS did not release multi-platform figures for The Summit, and Blue Bloods’ year-to-year trend is from the first part of its final season which aired in the 2023-24 TV season. Let me know what you think in the comments!
Key
Week 9 Predictions
The Neighborhood
The Neighborhood started off what was a brutal night for CBS this past Monday, notching a 0.28 rating in the key Adults 18-49 demo. That was enough to make it CBS’s highest-rated show of the night, but still down nearly a full tenth from the previous airing. This widens the gap between the long-running multi-cam and the Thursday night comedy hour, and if its ratings don’t rebound, puts into question its value as a lead-in. But I’m not doubling down on my Likely Cancel prediction for The Neighborhood just because of one bad linear rating.
For the first time since May, CBS revealed Live + 35 day multi-platform ratings for most of their series — conveniently omitting The Summit. The Neighborhood was not a strong multi-platform player last season, coming in second-to-last with 7.5 million viewers. It only bested its linear lead-out, the final season of Bob Hearts Abishola. This season, The Neighborhood’s multi-platform viewership is down to just 6.4 million viewers, putting it over a million viewers behind the next-least-viewed show — linear lead-out Poppa’s House. It has the worst year-to-year trend of all returning CBS series, with the first three episodes of this season down 15% from the first two episodes of last season. None of this is pretty for an aging series that will need cast contracts to be renegotiated to secure an eighth season renewal.
I do expect CBS to give The Neighborhood the dignity of a final season announcement, something that has become commonplace for the network for long-running series in recent years. If a final season announcement isn’t made by January or February, I’ll probably have a change in heart. For now, enough signs point to this being the final season of The Neighborhood for me to keep it in the Likely Cancel category.
S.W.A.T.
Another aging show to keep an eye on is S.W.A.T. Now in its eighth season, S.W.A.T. was one of CBS’s lowest-rated scripted shows two seasons in a row — and that was before the two seasons where they canceled and subsequently uncanceled it. It managed to survive the Sunday night death slot, and has proved its worth on the linear schedule airing Fridays at 8 pm. S.W.A.T. is now being tasked with taking over for Blue Bloods at 10 pm.
CBS has been the only network dedicated to scripted programming in the late Friday hour for several years now. S.W.A.T. has done better in some time slots than others, and CBS has not tried out anything other than Blue Bloods in the hour since the Tom Selleck-led series premiered in 2010. The worst case scenario for S.W.A.T is it goes down as a sacrificial lamb, declining in the ratings while allowing something younger to avoid doing the same. How S.W.A.T. holds up could also give CBS a gauge of the viability of scripted programming in the hour in general, now that Blue Bloods has concluded. It could impact where Fire Country’s upcoming spinoff, Sheriff Country, lands on the schedule. My prediction is S.W.A.T. will hold up well enough for Sony to give CBS a good enough deal to make a Season 9 renewal desirable, but there’s also a sizable chance the ratings slide. It stays in the Leans Renew category this week.
Elsbeth
Elsbeth continues to fight for a spot on CBS’s 2025-26 schedule with another strong multi-platform press release. Its first three episodes are averaging 12.1 million viewers in the Live + 35 day period, making it CBS’s sixth-most-watched series overall. That’s even higher than NCIS, which has two spinoffs on the midseason schedule and a third upcoming for Paramount+. From a linear ratings standpoint, Elsbeth is headed straight to cancelation. However, its multi-platform viewership is simply too large to ignore, allowing it to keep a Leans Renew prediction.
However, a renewal for Elsbeth would take up a spot on the schedule from a show that does better in linear ratings. Had Elsbeth’s multi-platform viewership lined up more with its linear ratings, partially owned but aging series like The Equalizer and FBI: Most Wanted might be in better shape right now. Factors such as how development pans out, how Watson and S.W.A.T perform (and NCIS: Sydney to a lesser extent), how NCIS: Origins looks when it returns, and how The Equalizer performs at 10 pm will all make an impact.
